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Brazilian banks follow closely events in Argentina: Dollar at 12 Pesos

Friday, November 27th 2015 - 07:55 UTC
Full article 37 comments

Brazilian banks which follow closely events in Argentina and prospects of the new government under president Mauricio Macri, believe the official exchange rate of 9.67 Pesos to the dollar will inevitably have to be devalued, to 12 Pesos by the end of the year, which means a 24% depreciation. Read full article

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  • chronic

    Ruling stay?

    How many times has rottingroadkill been previously denied one?

    The treasury is barred by statute from settlement with the hedge funds.

    Time for rottingroadkill to comply with the LV,NV discovery orders.

    Nov 27th, 2015 - 10:52 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    With 24% devaluation (or more) and a real inflation of 30% (or more) TMBOA has really screwed the country over for her goodbye swansong.

    The stinking poor are soon going to be joined by thousands more.

    Nov 27th, 2015 - 12:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Marti Llazo

    Only a 24 percent devaluation of the ARS? Must be just a first step. The necessary leveling is closer to 30 percent for the near term, and more if the inflation is not turned around quickly.

    There is already talk by Macri's people of introducing a 500 peso bill since the currently largest available denomination is 100 pesos and on the open market that is only worth about US$6.70 and yes, you will soon need those wheelbarrows again. In some of the cambios in Chile they are now flatly refusing to accept Argentina pesos at all, something I haven't seen since December 2001.

    Nov 27th, 2015 - 02:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    American Airlines is refusing pesos too.
    There's no reason to hold them.
    Never has been
    That's the vicious cycle that brings a new currency to Arg about every decade.

    I don't see how Macri can save this without an IMF bailout.
    Which the USA would have to bless
    I don't see that happening either

    Nov 27th, 2015 - 02:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @4 I don't agree. If Macri reaches a compromise over debt repayment I think there will be a bailout. There is no barrier to the trade agreement between Mercosur and the EU and that is positive. Argentina needs to open its doors and behave market-friendly and it will receive outside help.

    The US has a vested interest in befriending Argentina as it has done with Cuba; it further isolates Venezuela. There is always the long game at play.

    @3 Yes, I read that they will print the 500 peso bill as soon as they can find the paper.

    Nov 27th, 2015 - 03:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Whether Argentina lives or dies matters little to the USA. It has nothing we want or care about.

    Argentina has been out of status at the IMF for years. Unless the USA wants to “waive” the rules and regs to give them a loan they're pretty much out of luck.

    Venezuela is collapsing on its own, the USA doesn't care or have to do anything to help it along.
    Cuba came to us so they wouldn't starve so they don't have to rely on V.

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 01:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @6 I don't agree with your view on this. International trade and relations are not personal, they are business. Argentina could be a good trading partner under the right government. There is more than one way to do business and the bully-boy stance is rarely the most successful.

    Cuba wouldn't starve, as you put it. The US tried to starve the Cubans after the fall of the USSR but it just galvanised the communist rule unnecessarily for another two decades. The US may have ceased trading with them but other countries didn't.

    Venezuela is collapsing but that would not necessarily end Maduro's reign. Isolating him and taking away support from other South American countries will. Macri has already taken a stance against him which is a good step.

    You have to look at the bigger picture. It is not about personal vendettas against countries. It doesn't help international trade or the world's economy to let any country fail because it always has an effect on other countries. No one need that kind of ripple effect in South America when the world economy is not exactly healthy.

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 08:05 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    You sound like you work for the Odumbo Administration. As I've said before you need to take off the rose colored glasses you wear. They're not helping you see reality.

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 12:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @8 No, I don't work for any particular government. I don't see the world through 'rose-tinted glasses' I just look at the bigger picture and not from one narrow-minded perspective.

    YB, your opinions are blinded by your absolute desire for Argentina to fall to its knees and come begging to you (the US). Why do you need to assert your superiority if you already believe you have it? Humiliating a country just creates the perfect environment for populist dictators. It is in everyone's interest to help someone like Macri to be as successful as possible if we don't want the K's back.

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 04:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Elaine, You wear rose colored glasses, your opinions are formed with a strong adherence to Progressivism. Many people on this board, and I imagine in real life have told you this. It shouldn't be a surprise.

    I don't care to humiliate Argentina if you're reading that into my posts that your opinion, again shaded by Progressivism.

    Argentinians can't be trusted, there's 200 years of proof, they've defaulted more than any other country, they don't abide by their agreements, they nationalized, they are corrupt, etc etc etc.
    One Prez will not solve this problem. I don't see U$ rushing into the country, well maybe some Hot money for a quick buck but nobody is going to invest long term until they know they'll get their investment back.

    The USA doesn't need Argentina to beg, we don't need it for anything, in the 70s which was the last time we paid attention to it we needed it to help eradicate the communist menace, we don't need for that now. Its population is too poor and too small to matter for our trade. They don't have anything we need or want.
    I am really not sure why you don't understand this?

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 05:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @10 No, only a small-minded bigot like you would call anyone who doesn't agree with them as having 'rose-tinted glasses'. You cannot see beyond your extreme prejudice as you have demonstrated once again. What is your obsession with Argentina? You clearly don't like the people so why do you give them so much of your time?

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 06:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Marti Llazo

    @10 Probably the wrong time to mention that the US keeps a substantial positive balance in trading with Argentina. For the months January through September of this year (my available numbers) the balance in favour of the US was about US$4,3 billion. For the whole year 2014 the trade balance with Argentina in favour of the US was about US$6,6 billion. The trend strongly favours the US: in 2008 the balance was about US$1,7 billion and in many years earlier the balance favoured Argentina. No, the US doesn't “need” Argentina but that sort of trade balance is a sort of “nice to have.” Many of the items involved in this trade are products that Argentine industry --being stuck in the 1970s technologically -- cannot provide, and in theory this gives the US a potential bit of leverage in the event that Argentina returns to earlier patterns of unacceptable misbehaviour.

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 06:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    11. Small minded bigot?! Bahahahahaha coming from you I take that as a compliment. For all of your polispeak flowery b/s your posts are pretty transparent, Champaign liberal who feels sad for people getting the shaft as they drive by in their locked cars.
    Sick
    At least I admit what I am.
    Take a look in the mirror honestly honey.
    You may not like what you see.

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 07:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @13 Stop being such a cry baby. I am perfectly fine with who I am, thanks.

    You are a narrow-minded bigot because you think there is only one possible answer to every situation; your way. You are completely intolerant of anyone with a different opinion.

    You are also a bigot because you demonstrated it in your post @ 10 “Argentinians can't be trusted, there's 200 years of proof, they've defaulted more than any other country, they don't abide by their agreements, they nationalized, they are corrupt, etc etc etc.”
    All Argentineans can't be trusted? Really? Every single one? What about you calling them filthy and stating that they are all lazy? You are completely prejudiced against all Argentines.

    What ever happened to you in Argentina and however badly your business and ambitions failed it is wrong to blame all Argentines. If you live in another country you have to accept the culture is going to be different. You can't expect everyone to alter to suit you.

    You didn't answer the question. Why do you devote so much of your time to Argentines if you think they are so irrelevant?

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 09:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Argentinians can't be trusted, there's 200 years of proof, they've defaulted more than any other country, they don't abide by their agreements, they nationalize, they are corrupt, etc etc etc.”

    Do you know their history at all?

    Tell me where I'm wrong in the above statement.

    As I've said many times, I had a great time living there until the corruption, hoards of poor people, violence all became overwhelming and I had to move back to civilization.

    I watch Argentina, especially the Kirchners because I think Obama is the most like a South American Caudillo than any other Prez we've ever had. He very much like CFK and if not for our strong Judiciary and his ability to lose most every State Gov, State House, Fed House and Senate during his reign we'd be just like them.
    There's a conservative wave coming and the Progs, who've spent 30 yrs trying to destroy the national will of the countries they've been running are coming to an end. It will be another 30 yrs before they're back in power. I only hope the right doesn't go too far. I think Germany, France and Scandanavian countries are in for a world of hurt soon enough.

    Nov 28th, 2015 - 10:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @15 I do not concur with your dismissal of all Argentines. There is systemic corruption in Argentina that starts right at the top with the government. People in Argentina have to play the system to survive. I found it utterly frustrating and opposed to my culture but I did not condemn a whole country of people for it as you do. You call them uncivilised and filthy and much more. That is a reflection of your character and inability to cope in a developing country. I see a lot of people like you wanting to live like a king in a country where everything is much cheaper and expecting to have everything they had at home. Didn't you research before going?

    Your comparison between Obama and the Kirchners is too ridiculous. You live in a democracy and that means that you have to except the will of the majority and the majority are very much in the centre of politics. I remember you confidently predicting Obama would not get a second term but he did. You should not be so sure the country is going to move hard right especially with Trump ruining the middle ground voters; Trump is a gift to the Democrats.

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 10:06 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Marti Llazo

    Regarding inflation effects: the Macri team is discussing the new ARS denominations, including 200, 500, and 1000-peso notes. Based on current free-market exchange rate those would be worth somewhere around US$13, US$33, and US$67, respectively. It isn't that long ago that a 1000 peso note would have been worth about US$300.

    At least the Macri government is facing the reality of inflation and other issues. The CFK government will always be remembered for its unwillingness to live in other than a state of fantasy and lies.

    In 2008 I could fill my fuel tank for less than 100 pesos (in Santa Cruz province there is a tax-reduced regimen on fuel). It now costs about 600 pesos to fill that tank.

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 01:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Its funny how people remember the few times when I am wrong on here.
    Just so you know, I am not from the future every now and then I'll get something wrong.
    Obama is like a Caudillo, a leftist dictator that is arrogant and lawless. Thank goodness we have term limits!
    I do think he'll be like the other living Failed Prez Carter and go around the world for the next 40 yrs bashing the USA never understanding why his Presidency failed.
    They think its messaging.
    It's not messaging, its wrong-headed policy.

    17. Macri needs to pay the farmers (15+ peso exchange) to get the approx U$8-9B flowing into BCRA. That'll give him a lifeline to let the peso float and pay some bills. Inflation is controllable, the deficit can be fixed by just getting rid of the energy subsidies. He should fix this economy like tearing off a band-aid, do it all at once and get the pain out of the way quickly.
    If he does this slowly Ifear he will lose the people.

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 02:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @18 No, I have recognised on here when you have been right but in this particular case where we are discussing the elections in the U.S. you were wrong. I also think you will be wrong again if Trump is the candidate for the Republicans.

    To say Obama is like a 'leftist dictator' not only undermines your credibility and highlights your prejudices, it is plain laughable. It also puts the U.S. on a par with developing countries if you are claiming they allow a dictator to run their country. Honestly, how uncivilised is that.

    Obama has been a disappointing President but he was hamstrung from the start. Most of all I think his foreign policy has been a disaster. When he had to concentrate on clearing up the financial mess of the previous administration he should have also focused on the mess they made overseas. Failure to do so has given rise to the massive problem we now have in the middle-east. Started by the U.S. and then abandoned to allow the rise of I.S. He also allowed Putin to start clawing back favour in the former Russian states.

    @17 You mean INDEC have been lying all this time? (joke) I hope Macri is going to be transparent about the lies every step of the way.

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 02:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Elaine, you're a hardcore liberal and just as bigoted as I am but on the other spectrum.
    I know you don't think so but you are.
    Maybe a little self reflection is in order.

    You easly get wroapped around the axle and have a very difficult time with reading comprehension when it doesn't fit into your normal talking points.

    I don't know who the candidate will be on the Republican side. We're a long way off.
    There's a 50/50 chance Clinton will be indicted as she should be.
    So I'll wait until next year, right now there are 2 candidates I like. I hope one of them wins and makes the other the VP.

    Going on and on about Trump makes you look a bit insane....

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 02:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @20 So Trump is not running anymore? Wow, that is a scoop. You know the information I have is that he is still a front runner along with Carson. Are we not allowed to talk about Trump because you have declared your support for him here or because he is an embarrassment to everyone in the U.S?

    I am not hardcore anything but my views could be considered liberal or tolerant and inclusive. It isn't a dirty word or an insult and it is quite the opposite of bigoted. I have never said you are not entitled to your views but if you are going to put them out there so freely you should expect them to be countered and debated. What are you afraid of? Revealing more of your ugly views?

    But it is not so much your political views - though you have pulled the discussion in that direction - but the fact that you dismiss a whole country and insult all Argentines, calling them all untrustworthy, dirty, uncivilised, animals etc. that I chose to pull you up on. You are the person who wants to see them starve and broken. You are a nasty, bitter man and your attempts to try to hide your reason to be here under a blanket of 'Obama is like CFK' doesn't work.

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 04:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    “my views could be considered liberal or tolerant and inclusive
    ..except when other people don't agree with you..
    Your views are far from tolerant
    and even farther from inclusive

    There's no such thing as a tolerant progressive
    They always seem to forget history.

    Anyhoo, I never said I supported Trump, again you are reading your prejudices into my posts.
    Conservatives are fed up with the old-timers in Congress and Senate, they control both by the numbers but have done little to reign in debt and control Obamas outrageously liberal/economy destroying agenda. That's why Trump and Carson are doing well. They're seen as outsiders.

    BTW you're the one who puts ”all“ in front of my Argentines, I doubt I ever said ”all” anywhere.
    It is typical of your sort to change people's words to suit your argument.

    Also in my book, Liberal is a dirty word. Its akin to Progressive which is a flowery term invented by Socialists to make it seem like that's the way forward.

    Elaine, I imagine you as a middling-educated, holier than thou bureaucrat champagne-socialist who thinks they are doing the world good when in reality you destroy all that you touch.

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 05:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @22 You just cannot stand that I held a mirror up to you and called you out on your nasty views.

    “Also in my book, Liberal is a dirty word. Its akin to Progressive ”

    Your book is wrong. Just because you decide to alter the meaning of a word does not make it correct. If you had any understanding of either words you would know they are completely different economic models. The latter is indeed favoured by CFK.
    My views are socially liberal but economically not so much - you would be surprised.

    But none of this is relevant to the reason I pulled you up, it is your nasty attitude towards a whole country. You say vile things about the people of Argentina.

    “Whether Argentina lives or dies matters little to the USA. It has nothing we want or care about.”

    “Argentinians can't be trusted, there's 200 years of proof, they've defaulted more than any other country, they don't abide by their agreements, they nationalized, they are corrupt, etc etc etc.”

    Two of your quotes just from this thread and we have read a lot worse from you.

    I prefer you you don't fantasise about me. You never get it right and are so far off the mark it is amusing. Read back the thread from the start, you started the insults as soon as I didn't agree with you even though it was just a discussion.

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 05:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Back at ya babe.

    I stand by everything I write.

    Prove me wrong.

    Dare ya.

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 08:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @24 Grow up.

    Nov 29th, 2015 - 09:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    25. I'm pretty sure you've told eveyone on here to “grow up” at one time or another.
    Maybe its you that needs to grow up

    You know you don't inspire a good debate by reposting what someone says and then calling them mean.

    Again, prove my posts wrong, offer something that moves the conversation forward or stop bothering posting.
    Nothing is worse than a boring self righteous liberal.

    Nov 30th, 2015 - 12:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @26 I see I really touched a nerve with you. Good.

    Prove what? How exactly do you want me to prove that all Argentine are not 'filthy animals ', 'lazy' and 'corrupt”? These are some of your words.

    You can't chase me away - though I did send you off with your tails between your legs once before. If you find my post so boring ignore me but I will continue to highlight your prejudices whenever you post them. It might make your think before posting hyperbolic insults about a whole country of people.

    Nov 30th, 2015 - 01:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Again, never said, all.... you can keep changing what I say but its all there for people to see.

    Pretty easy to prove that they're lazy, look at productions numbers for the country, dumb, look at the number of patents, corrupt...plenty of indexes out there.
    Are you too lazy to prove yourself wrong?
    Or do you just want to debate like you're in elementary school?

    OMFG you live in a fantasy world, you never chased be off. You're not smart enough to chase me off.

    You are a boring self-righteous liberal secure in your beliefs even though you can't prove them.

    And I'm not going to change anything I post for you or anyone else.

    Nov 30th, 2015 - 01:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @28 Good.

    Nov 30th, 2015 - 02:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Yes there's a lot of good in my posts.

    I'm glad you finally recognize it
    It took all weekend
    but....whew!

    Nov 30th, 2015 - 02:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @30 Silly boy. Just keep posting and showing your infantile and nasty character for everyone to see.

    Nov 30th, 2015 - 03:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    I'll say again
    back at ya babe

    Nov 30th, 2015 - 04:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @32 For the record, I don't agree with you on almost everything you post; just so there is no confusion. When I do, I say so and when I don't I state why. I am not sure why it upsets you so much when I don't agree with you.

    Nov 30th, 2015 - 04:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    I'll say it again
    back at ya babe

    Nov 30th, 2015 - 05:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • chronic

    Munching popcorn.

    Come on YB. lol. Elsie hasn't worn you down has she? Do you think the cow might be an rg enabler?

    Dec 01st, 2015 - 05:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” - Arthur Schopenhauer ..

    Pretty accurate process for the idiots on this board. I remember when I argued back and forth about what was going to happen in Argentina, Brazil et al long long long before anyone else saw it coming.

    Anyhoo, China and Germany (EU in general) will be fun to watch over the next couple of years...

    Dec 01st, 2015 - 10:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • 313toBioBio

    @36 yep yankeeboy has really posted the most accurate ecn analysis on here while retard after retard underestimates the unadultered evil managing argentina and brazil. Elaine... How can you find refuge in the tolerant progressive US left when the clinton foundation was used by Lula and Kirchnerism to paint stalinism lije something else? Even now bill is a brazil optimist. The king came to sao paulo a few weeks ago saying everything was fine. Macri is handed an empty bcra and sciolis fake campaign was just to give false promises that end in anarchy and violence. Your nobel peace prize winning messiah gave the castros their bailout as a reward for what they did to be venezuela. The empire hard at work.

    Dec 02nd, 2015 - 04:37 am - Link - Report abuse 0

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