MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Rousseff “D Day”: on Tuesday main coalition ally decides if it continues support

“On Tuesday we are going to clearly defend that PMDB must withdraw from support, hand in positions and serenely wait for events to evolve”, said Picciani

The government of Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff, her mentor Lula da Silva and their Workers Party fear very much that next Tuesday could become “D Day”, since its main ally the PMDB, and with the largest representation in Congress, will be holding an extraordinary meeting of the national directory to decide whether to continue or step down from the ruling convention.

 If that happens government sources admit it will be extremely difficult to impede the impeachment process against president Rousseff rolling ahead.

The bad news was born in Rio do Janeiro last Thursday, where the main chapter of PMDB, in a much disputed convention said it was time to leave an incompetent government, and also looking ahead to next October's municipal elections, the stronghold of the party's electorate. The advisors of Rousseff also fear that the stepping down of PMDB could have a contagion effect on other, though smaller parties of the coalition.

“It's terrible news, it strengthens the exit position of PMDB next Tuesday since Rio was the main support of the government inside the party. This will demand a herculean effort to convince deputy after deputy to sustain their support for the coalition”, said a government source quoted by Rio's O'Globo media group.

Allegedly once the decision was taken, Rousseff and Lula da Silva immediately called former Rio governor Sergio Cabral, one of the main leaders of PMDB in that state to ask for help in stopping the bleeding. According to PMDB sources Lula sounded “desperate” and the discussion was “cold” and “to talk about the obvious”.

In effect Cabral, together with Jorge Picciani, chairman of PMDB in Rio and Rio mayor Eduardo Paes, who led the 'PMDBexit' position in the state convention told the Workers Party representatives that there was nothing to be done since 'it was too late' and that there was nothing to be won but further erosion and discredit in defending the government.

However it was not clear what would be the stance of the leader of PMDB block in the Lower House, Leonardo Picciani, who was elected with the support from the Planalto Palace (Executive).

Apparently in the last weeks neither Lula da Silva or Rousseff had called Cabral, or mayor Paes or expressed gratitude to Picciani for his contention task in Congress, in support of the government, “this is proof of the significance of PMDB for Dilma and if she stays, but our position is that we've reached the mouth of the cave, but we are not going in!”, according to the O'Globo report quoting PMDB members.

”In politics there's nothing as unconditional support, you need to build minimum consensuses. On Tuesday we are going to clearly defend that PMDB must withdraw from support (to the government), hand in positions and serenely wait for events to evolve. It won't be unanimous but we are going to have a clear majority“, said Jorge Picciani, Rio do Janeiro PMDB chair.

Picciani also revealed that last Sunday he had lunch with Vice president Michel Temer and suggested that in the event of a government headed by Temer he should cut cabinet to a maximum of 15 positions with outstanding names with the purpose of implementing a 'rigorous fiscal adjustment'.

However despite the negative scenario, Planalto sources said that the government still is hopeful of reversing votes and for this ”will appeal and try to convince deputies directly one by one, not to support the impeachment“, even if PMDB decides on Tuesday to walk away from the coalition. ”The party might decide to abandon the government but this does not mean they have to vote to impeach Dilma“.

”They claim we are offering positions, yes we are, but they are also doing the same in the event of breaking off from government“, admitted Planalto sources in reference to a possible administration under vice president Michel Temer if Rousseff is removed.

”This is a cold war, there's no direct communication between the Rousseff side and the PMDB, and worse they distrust each other deeply”, admitted the Planalto source who also revealed that similar attempts to convince the Minas Gerais PMDB chapter are on course.

In effect the Senate speaker Renan Calheiros from PMDB is working to try and keep the party in the coalition, but he has limits and besides if impeachment is approved by the Lower House, the Senate certainly will not be a barrier, taking into account that 70% of public opinion are calling for the removal of president Rousseff.