The Brazilian real climbed almost 1% against the dollar on Thursday, as a rout on Wednesday led to a technical correction and a key poll showed Brazil's left failing to gain steam in presidential elections scheduled for October.
On Wednesday, the real led losses across the region, falling over 2%, as lingering trade concerns weighed on currencies across the region. A decision by a Supreme Court Justice that all privatizations in Brazil must be approved by Congress also hit the currency.
However, traders saw an opportunity to buy back in on Thursday, pushing the currency up 0.92% against the dollar.
The poll conducted by industry group Ibope showed far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro leading with 17% of voters' intentions, followed by environmentalist Marina Silva. Center-left populist Ciro Gomes registered 8% of voter intentions.
While Bolsonaro's comments on various social issues are distasteful to many and he supported interventionist economics until recently, many see his leftist rivals as more of a threat to the health of the Brazilian market.
”Internally, the Ibope poll contributed (to the real's rise), as it showed a left without momentum,” said José Faria Júnior, head of Sao Paulo consultancy Wagner Investimentos.
Elsewhere in Latin America, the Mexican peso also rose strongly, climbing 1.27% against the dollar, after falling on Wednesday. Traders also said that a downward revision in first-quarter U.S. GDP growth figures helped push the greenback down against emerging market currencies.
Across the region, equities markets were mixed with Brazil's benchmark Bovespa index the big winner, climbing 1.65%. Gains among heavily weighted banking stocks such as Banco Bradesco SA and Itau Unibanco Holding SA, which were both up over 1.5%, supported the index as traders bought in following significant losses on Wednesday.
Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Bovespa Stock Exchange by 250 to 156 and 39 ended unchanged.USD/BRL was up 0.01% to 3.8613, while EUR/BRL rose 0.12% to 4.4661.
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Mercopress forgot to mention Ibope's scenario without Lula shows there would be 33 per cent of votes branco e nulo.Jun 30th, 2018 - 05:25 am 0
Which is exactly Lula's vote intention -- 33 per cent -- as shown in another scenario including the former president as candidate.
In this scenario, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) appears in a distant second place, getting 15 per cent of the votes.
Of course, such a somber scenario could not be allowed to happen, and patriotic judges are making sure to keep Lula under lock and key.
Even with Lula, 22% would vote blank or null. According to Datafolha, 40% of would-be Lula voters plan to vote blank if he isn't included. Which is arguably a bad thing if they care about their civil rights at all.Jun 30th, 2018 - 09:44 am 0
When you analyze who the people are that make up the 33% (‘brancos e nulos’), you quickly understand why – very simple really…..Feb 2018 stats show that over 20% of the population (40 million +) survives on (or receives) the ‘bolsa família’ …They are concentrated in small towns (up to 50,000 inhabitants) and represent 1/3 of the population in 11 States, all in the N & NE (mostly in MA, with 48% // PI and AC, with 41% each), the two poorest regions and that are known to have the lowest level of schooling and revenue per family…which most likely makes them the more likely to be ignorant, and easily led to believe they’ll lose the benefit if Lula does not win (which would indicate that they don’t even understand he can’t run).Jul 01st, 2018 - 10:36 pm 0
From this, we can safely conclude that without those who receive the BF, Lula has no where near the preference of 33% of electorate, who would allegedly cancel their vote if he doesn’t run. And Lula’s rejection is 31%, only trailing behind Collor and Bolsonaro (32 % each).
And to stop for just a moment and consider that the future of Brazil could be in the hands of the most ignorant, those that contribute nothing, is not a particularly good prospect.
Quite frankly, I don't believe that the PT supporters, who are notoriously the most fanatic, would give up the chance, or their right, to vote for their 'hero', so I think these polls would seem to be kinda misleading.