MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Brazilian currency strengthens below 4 to the dollar: first time in five weeks
The Brazilian currency dipped under four Real to the dollar for the first time in five weeks at close on Thursday as the markets reacted favorably to the emergence of two clear presidential election frontrunners. The Real closed at 3.99 to the US dollar just two weeks after hitting a record low of almost 4.2 to the dollar -- it's lost around 17% since the start of the year. Read full article
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Disclaimer & comment rulesThe importance of the United States to Brazil is insignificant. Trade concentrated in oil derivatives that does not add structuring value, gain in scale or productivity, then having the dollar as something that represents value is very difficult here in Brazil. Except, perhaps, take the kids to stroll in Florida.
Sep 28th, 2018 - 12:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Brazzo,
Sep 30th, 2018 - 08:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0IF you knew anything about foreign trade, and especially in the case of Brazil with the US, IF you had ever left Brazil - which obviously you haven't , and far less been to Florida - you would not state such “abobrinhas”. But coming from where you do, it easy to understand why.
@JB
Oct 02nd, 2018 - 04:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I already replied on “Bolsonaro reprimands his chief economic advisor...” but the thread has closed now, so I'm putting this here:
“My motivation was to think of the alternative”
Does that mean you didn't enjoy your degree, but picked Economics to study because you thought it would help you get a good job? What would you have done if you didn't have to look out for yourself and had been guaranteed a minimum standard of living?
DT
Oct 02nd, 2018 - 07:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Ordinary” people 'here' have no idea what the politicians ‘really’ mean…IF they have ANY idea how socialism works in the 1st world, that’s probably what they think the lefties will deliver. Anyone with half-a-brain, knows it won't happen.
As to ‘not having anything to gain’, that’s the point…they have nothing to lose either, so they’ll go for anything that in their ignorant minds, smells of benefits. They hope someone ELSE will solve their problems.
Lula did not invent the programs to erradicate hunger…they already existed. He simply joined all similar benefits into one 'n called it BF - even though, as opposition, he criticized it as a political maneuver for votes.
As far as personal income tax is concerned, sure those benefiting from the current system would complain, but it’s not up to them to decide. The fact is the system has to change.
The lack of a 'decent' tax reform (a more transparent 'n much ‘fairer’ system) is what has led to massive tax evasion. The other day, Globo reported that Brazil loses R$ 600 billion to tax evasion every year. If everyone paid taxes correctly, the individual and corporate burdens would be less.
Please note, I’m talking of “Brazilian” polls /elections. Each voting system shapes people’s intentions differently, here it narrows down until you’ve got to choose the lesser of two evils.
Initially it was only IBOPE, then Datafolha appeared, 'n now there are a couple of others, Gallup and Paraná (that I know of), but the ones you hear of, on the news, are the first two.
The subject I had real difficulty with was Calculus I and II. There were few moments when I thought I was beginning to understand it, but they didn't last long. Dumbing down was a key factor in the PT’s educational planning. I recall them saying that to maintain a high-standard was detrimental to those who went to public schools.
Chose Economics because it appealed to me, the alternative was a shitty job, bad pay.
I would have studied, regardless.
When I said ordinary people don't have anything to gain, I meant those who weren't poor enough to get benefits. Your 'champagne socialists', perhaps. If they're not politicians and not getting handouts, then I presume they're supporting the left because they believe in it. I often see Democrats asking why poor people in America vote Republican when that party wants to take away their health care, social security etc. Like you, they conclude they must be deluded/mislead by the politicians.
Oct 02nd, 2018 - 09:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Lula did not invent the programs to erradicate hunger…they already existed.”
Sure, but if those programs had been sufficient, there wouldn't have been any hunger to eradicate. The military government didn't do anything, and democracy had been restored for 16(?) years but previous governments only just started to tackle the problem? Seems it wasn't exactly a priority for any other party.
“but it’s not up to them to decide”
The trouble with trying to reform the tax system is that the rich and powerful are surely among those dodging taxes, and they have a lot of power to get their own way. I think the 'elite' have taken it upon themselves to decide - in their own favour - many times in the past. And they already don't trust the PT, so it would be doubly hard to push through a reform.
What was included in your calculus courses? I think we started learning calculus at A level, but it may not have been the same thing. In any case, university maths was completely mind-blowing. And I had the same alternative to studying as you, plus I love learning new things.
“I recall them saying that to maintain a high-standard was detrimental to those who went to public schools.”
What on earth was that supposed to mean?!
@DT
Oct 02nd, 2018 - 10:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Considering about 40 million get benefits (they've done nothing to deserve, other than being poor...but that's OK), there's still plenty people who fit into 'well below middle-class'...they don't know what socialism is, never having experimented it, but think it's the solution to their problems...“the State will look after us”.. do they think Brazilian-style socialism, which is synonymous of populism, will do the trick ? keep on dreaming. What they don't realize is that ideology solves absolutely nothing.
Re US Republicans wanting to eliminate social security, where d'you get that ?
Lula's original idea to combat hunger, was the 'hunger-zero' program....when that failed miserably after a couple of years (ineffective and fraud-ridden) he resorted to the BF. I don't doubt that any government following FHC's, (even perhaps the PT) would have expanded those programs to get to get the same results the BF did, and probably even better. The problem was Lula thought less was more....in his pocket.
The military did not cancel any 'food' programs, for the simple reason there weren't any...and the initial steps were taken prior to the PT...why didn't they fight for it in Congress, instead of opposing it ?
Re tax reform, politicians/elite can carry on trying to postpone it, but one day they'll have to come to terms that the current system, besides not working, is unfair.
Re Calculus, to be honest, all I remember were these graphs full of points and curves....it was 50 years ago and I never had to use it. Can't say I was a fanatical student, but I had a deep sense of obligation that I had to take advantage of what was being offered to me...If I didn't , I knew I would regret it one day. After finishing my studies, I was grateful... also because it was over...and I could concentrate on getting ahead professionally.
The PT thought that the University entrance exams were too difficult for students coming from public schools...so the level had to be lowered.
“US Republicans wanting to eliminate social security”
Oct 03rd, 2018 - 02:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0They don't, that's just the Dems exaggerating. They do want to make cuts, and same with Medicare and Medicaid, which would make the poorer voters worse off if they are able to pass them.
Re calculus, can't blame you for not remembering something you did 50 years ago, but I'd curious whether we do learn this stuff earlier. It could make sense; students in England and Wales specialise earlier than in most countries, only doing a few subjects at A level, which need not include maths or English, and are studied in depth. You must choose the appropriate subjects at 16 if you want to do a particular degree later, and a bachelor's degree is only 3 years instead of 4.
You didn't do A levels, and maybe it would have been a bad idea, if Brazilian universities require more breadth of knowledge instead of depth. Did you learn any differentiation (dx/dy) or integration (uses ∫ symbol, no idea what they're called in Portuguese) in school?
I was sad to leave university, I enjoyed it even though it was very hard, and I met a lot of like-minded people. But I was happy not to have any more exams to do. :)
“The PT thought that the University entrance exams were too difficult...”
That makes slightly more sense than wanting to lower standards in schools. But the main result would be to increase the total number of people going to university - was that the plan, to expand the universities and produce more graduates? Or did he want it lowered for public school students only? I'm sure it's true that the same person would do better if sent to a private school rather than a public one, but how can two sets of admission standards possibly be made fair? Plus, if it's lowered too far then even if they are very smart, the public school students may not have the necessary background knowledge to start the course. Do the entrance exams test subject knowledge, or are they more like intelligence tests?
Need space to reply about the BF...
@DT
Oct 03rd, 2018 - 04:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Looks like whenever a govt decides to reorganize a public system, to attempt to cut waste 'n abuse, there’s always someone who goes against it 'n/or twists the facts so that nothing changes.
In my faculty, the 1st 2 years were general (Economy, Biz Admin, Accounting), and you specialized in the last 2, or 3. Entering the Brazilian system after O levels, high-school did not have A level exams to get ‘x’ or ‘y’ credits for University. If you passed you could try the Univ entrance exam.
Remember the names Differential and Integral Calculus, and that the functions etc drove me nuts, 'n quite frankly, in my case didn't see a practical use for it.
When I got into University I commemorated like hell, when I finished, even more. It was feeling of mission accomplished, a feeling of being able to finally explore the real world.
Lowering the bar, reducing the standard is not the right way to go about it. If the PT had been ready to admit that the level of public schools was shitty, instead of dumbing down Univ entrance exams (only for those registered under quotas, i.e., blacks, public school students), shouldn’t they have improved the pre-univ level of education ? of course not - it was easier to lower the bar for the ‘quotas’ and camouflage the real problem. The result may have been more entering Univ, but not necessarily finishing…and those who do, have been, many times, pushed through. What good’s that ? The idea was to emphasize the number entering, ignoring how they got in, or even if they graduated.
Agree, the quota students probably wouldn’t need quotas if they’d had decent basic schooling, but the two systems coexist in the name of ‘fairness’, or political correctness, as few are willing to stick their finger in the wound…anyone against it was called racist;
Just watched a report about public school education : impressive that more than half of the students who reach high school, are deficient in Math and Portuguese. The exams tested subject knowledge.
“If you passed you could try the Univ entrance exam.”
Oct 03rd, 2018 - 06:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That's very different to the system here; there's no entrance exam, and universities make offers to students on the basis of predicted A level results. You're allowed to accept two offers, a first choice and a backup in case you don't do as well as predicted. If you fail requirements for both, too bad. My backup offer still needed me to get AAB, a risky choice, so you can imagine I was very nervous.
How hard was the entrance exam when you took it? Did many people from your school fail? And how many years does the average degree take?
Calculus is pretty damn useful in physics. For example, we learned the equations of motion in physics early on, then later in maths we learned integration, and just from knowing the basic rules the equations pop out naturally, and you realise they're not arbitrary but inevitable. That was really cool.
Anyway, if you hated calculus it's a good thing you didn't do a pure maths degree; I promise you it gets much, much worse. ;)
“shouldn’t [the PT] have improved the pre-univ level of education ?”
Definitely, but that would have cost money, been harder, and taken years to show a result. Quotas cost the government nothing, and you can point at the result immediately. Much more attractive for a populist president, or any politician who doesn't want their successor to take all the credit. Prob. the best way to get more poor kids into uni would be to separate the smartest and create grammar schools, or even pay for them to attend private school. But when money is so tight, it's hard to say it should be spent on only a few students, instead of improving standards a little for everyone.
“impressive that more than half of the students who reach high school, are deficient in Math and Portuguese.”
Even in the UK, only 64% reached the 'expected standard' in reading, writing and maths. At least more kids in Brazil are staying at school now instead of working, and they get free school meals.
DT
Oct 04th, 2018 - 04:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Entrance exams exist here for the simple reason that there aren’t enough vacancies for the amount of candidates. The well-prepared would get in, the other, not. Reason for the PTs dumbing down entrance exams for ‘quota’ students.
I know Calculus is important in Physics 'n Engineering, but since neither interested me, it sucked. Clear that our vocations lay in different areas of knowledge. I’m sure it (pure math) would’ve gotten worse.
Presume you are agreeing with me on what the PT should’ve done re pre-university level…and right, it would cost a lot more, but that is not a valid reason to ignore it…besides, it’s the governments duty to supply it. What country gets ahead when the majority of the population is ignorant ?
“…any politician who doesn't want their successor to take all the credit”. That is one of the problem with Brazilian politicians…they always put themselves first, few care abt the country.
Money is tight NOW, due to the crisis/recession…If previous govts, including the PT, had invested heavily in public schools, making their students competitive, this could be managed easily, distributing the burden over 5 mandates, and obtaining results in one generation…but as you say, those who invested correctly would not get the credit. A similar mindset has kept the NE backward. More than 30 years ago, The DNOCS (Nat’l Dept of Public Works Against Drought) was established to supply water (plentiful, deep underground) to the populations in rural areas. The politicians in charge either stole the funds and did nothing, or as one, drilled artesian wells on ‘his’ land, then charged the people to use it. His crime was notorious, however when brought to Justice about 15 years ago, the case was dismissed through “lack of proof”…weren’t the wells, and the ‘only’ wells, on his land, proof ? That’s the type of Justice we had to put up with.
The difference between public and private schooling, although there are (a few) exceptions, is alarming.
Yeah, I agree they should have improved pre-university education. In some ways the BF was the first step; making sure children actually go to school. But they didn't build on it by improving education. If Lula had done it early on it would be showing results by now. Short-term thinking is an unfortunate result of democracy, anything else relies on politicians having at least a small amount of civic responsibility.
Oct 04th, 2018 - 05:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Sounds like Brazil needs more universities if there is so much competition, which IIRC Lula did start to build. Are any of them open yet?
”The difference between public and private schooling, although there are (a few) exceptions, is alarming.“
Surely the public schools in SP aren't that terrible? Couldn't the state spend some money on them if the federal government won't?
Now part of what I hadn't room for before:
”there's still plenty people who fit into 'well below middle-class'“
The number of people receiving the BF was never enough to explain Lula's 40% vote intention, but a lot of it must be his personal popularity rather than believing in any sort of ideology, as only a limited number have switched their support to Haddad. Probably for a lot of people Lula's government was good, employment grew and they were better off, and they blame Dilma for the recession. So they still like Lula, but they're not going to blindly vote for his substitute again.
”I don't doubt that any government following FHC's, would have expanded those programs”
Possibly, but depending on the government it would have been a lot more limited. FHC could have started the Bolsa Escola and other benefits at the beginning of his presidency instead of near the end; we have to assume they were just a lower priority for his party. If Bolsonaro wins, do you think he'll keep the BF as it is, or cut back to save money?
The problem is, the BF (characterized as such under the PT), was not the “first” step…it was the ‘only’ step. It did little to insert people into society on their own merit.
Oct 04th, 2018 - 07:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0In the last 20/30 yrs Brazilian universities have multiplied, but few are any good. Many are well below standard ‘n the Ministry of Education has attempted to close them w/o much success.
Lula ‘claimed’ he opened 18 new Federal Universities. I’ve said on here, that is BS…2 were created during FHCs presidency, another 12 already existed but were dismembered and had name changes (before being RE-inaugurated), and only 4 were actually new. When I say the difference between public /private schools is alarming, this is an ‘average’…in SP, as in PR, SC, RS, public schools are much higher level than those in other regions, where in many cases, schools are non-existent, or mud huts with a blackboard.
Re the BF, considering it helps 13,7 million families, or roughly 45 million people, of which about 2/3, or 28 million adults vote, means 19% of the electorate are captive PT voters. Others simply trusted him because he speaks like they do, or because of his bravado promises (usually not accomplished) - like his ‘hunger-zero’ program which got him elected in 2002.
Far from defending govts prior to the PT, as being wonderful – none were – but Lula with his popularity, could have got Congress to approve almost anything in his first term, but he was too concerned about himself i/o Brazil.
FHC, although his slogan was “Tudo pelo Social” (everything for the social ), he did relatively little in that aspect, but he created a feeling it was time to give those issues more attention.
The BF, is here to stay, regardless of Bolsonaro. Besides being a very sensitive issue, it is necessary…however, has to be controlled to avoid fraud, and if conditions to receive it contemplate other programs (to be created, and) which oblige recipients to better themselves, perhaps in 20 yrs it wouldn’t be necessary.
“Many are well below standard ‘n the Ministry of Education has attempted to close them w/o much success.”
Oct 05th, 2018 - 12:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Huh. Who goes to them then? Presumably they don't have demanding entry requirements? I looked up how many students from public schools went to USP last year: 36.9%. What do you reckon it was in your day? I also found a study that says the Brazilian government (taxpayer) spends more money on university level education (mostly attended by kids from well-off families), than primary and secondary education (used by the poor). Doesn't seem very fair, or the best way to use a limited budget.
“Lula with his popularity, could have got Congress to approve almost anything in his first term”
I'm not convinced of that. Sure he was popular with the poor, but the elite and business community were deeply suspicious of him. When he first took office, he had to write that letter to reassure people he wasn't going to do anything drastic, and he continued to follow FHC's policies in many areas, probably partly for the same reason. I doubt he forgot that the Brazil's last left-wing President had been overthrown by force and died in exile.
Also, the Mensalão scandal happened in his first term, he'd hardly have bothered bribing deputies if they would have voted for him anyway.
That's not to say he couldn't have passed an education reform, but tax reform or, say, land redistribution, no.
”FHC, although his slogan was “Tudo pelo Social” (everything for the social ), he did relatively little in that aspect, but he created a feeling it was time to give those issues more attention.”
Perhaps that feeling was part of why Lula was elected after 3 failed attempts; the big problems with the economy had been fixed, and it was time to turn to social ones like poverty and hunger. If FHC didn't really focus on social issues, what did he do while president? (IIRC the plano real was passed while FHC was economy minister, before his own presidency.)
DT
Oct 05th, 2018 - 07:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Ever heard of “there’s a fool born every minute” ? that’s them. People without much brain. No entry exams.
Re USP, the 36.9% does not tell the full story : 1st, the overall increase is in good part due to the social/racial quotas; 2nd, not all of the 42 faculties accept quota students - i.e, the most competitive to get in (ex : engineering, medicine); 3rd, students from public schools (‘n not thru quotas) number 21% ‘n 20% respectively, for Engineering, ‘n Economics ; 4th, the courses that attract most students fm public schools (including quotas) are the less competitive : physical education, 55% ; nursing 51%, which aren’t as demanding as other courses. In my day, without quotas, must’ve been very few.
Sorry, but Lula COULD’VE passed what he wanted…despite initial suspicion from biz in gen’l, he quickly realized he had to placate them, so he wrote the letter ‘n then “got into bed with them”. Also, he didn’t go off the deep end, simply because he had not expected to win…and, he had NO govt program…which obliged him to carry on FHC’s policies for a while; Biz was happy again, ‘n Congress would have cooperated…as it did - i.e., “mensalão”.
The fact that a leftie was ousted in 64 had no influence in 2002/03. Re Congress, remember, he needed to finance his project of power, his Bolivarian dream, needed people to cooperate with this, thus the “mensalão” in Congress ‘n corruption with big biz/State–run Cos. Fact remains, had he ‘wanted’ to do the ‘right’ thing, he could have.
Lula’s only visible campaign promise (2002), which he flaunted everywhere, was the zero-hunger program. He did not say how he’d do it, had NO other viable propositions, but the hunger-zero appealed to the poor.
FHC was more focused on getting the economy in order, reducing inflation, ‘n preparing the foundations for growth, but did not deliver on his ‘social’ promises. Although few others like to claim paternity for the Plano Real (even Dilma), FHC to all effects was the mastermind.
How many of those students graduate? And can they get scholarships or loans to live on, or do they have to work to pay their living expenses?
Oct 06th, 2018 - 12:23 am - Link - Report abuse 0At my university (Warwick), I reckon the percentages might have been the opposite of USP. Still high when only 7% of kids in the UK go to private school. And here students have to pay fees, though when I went they were much lower, and means tested. The Brazilian government could do the same, have universities start charging limited fees to students with richer parents, and put the money they save into primary and secondary education. What d'you think?
“Lula COULD’VE passed what he wanted”
I'm skeptical. What laws did he pass in those first few years, and how did the other parties vote on them? IIRC the PT and PSDB had a rivalry since Lula was elected, so I doubt they'd be cooperating.
“hunger-zero appealed to the poor.”
Unsurprising. If that was his only campaign promise, I guess he did a decent job at keeping it. What made him so popular by the time he left power?
PS. The election is this Sunday, right? Have you decided who to vote for in the first round?
Although being used for abt 10 years, the quotas were implemented by law in 2012. It changed student profile in Federal Universities, with many coming from the C, D, E social classes. Couldn’t find anything specific on the number of those graduating, however about a year ago (?) I recall having read that an abnormal amount of students who entered the Universidade Federal do ABC through the quota system, were dropping out before graduation. Somewhere else I found that the evasion rate increased from 21.9% (in 2010) to 26% (in 2015).
Oct 06th, 2018 - 11:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0AfaiK, scholarships cover only tuition. When I was at the USP, low-rent living quarters were available on Campus, to out-of town students who qualified for the benefit.
Re charging limited fees fm richer students, while on the one hand I think it’s reasonable to debate it, on the other it goes against isonomy (equal treatment)…and given that the IRS allows piddling deductions re fees, from one’s declarable income, it has to be fair ‘n well-thought out…not often the case here.
Again, disagree with your skepticism. I was here, accompanied Congressional debates on many issues ; although the PT ‘n PSDB were the main opposing forces during the last 20 years, it was always the PT that disagreed with literally ANY project law, even if indisputably good, if it hadn’t been proposed by them.
Besides Lula’s self-proclaimed miracles with Education ‘n the BF, don’t recall any significant law he passed. Presumably thought he’d done plenty.
The hunger zero, supposed to be a card that translated into 3 meals a day, failed after a year (ineffective ‘n full of fraud). Ask any poor person why Lula was/is popular, the answer is one - the BF…we know how effective (?) it was, ‘n that it was very little compared to what he could have done, but people were conditioned to think of him as God. Pathetic.
Seeing the voting intentions, it’s obvious Bolsonaro & Haddad will be in the runoff. Others have no chance. As I hate the PT, it’ll have to be Bolsonaro
“Seeing the voting intentions...”
Oct 07th, 2018 - 10:13 am - Link - Report abuse 0What, after you said the polls are unreliable? Isn't that the point of having a runoff, so you can vote for who you really prefer, and then IF the polls are correct and that person has no chance of winning, still decide between the two most popular? Now I see why you think manipulating the poll results could change the outcome!
I had a look for studies, and found a couple saying quota students were slightly *less* likely to drop out, which I didn't expect at all. Others said they were only slightly more likely not to finish. So, not exactly a big problem. But if there are no loans for living expenses then presumably poorer students must work to support themselves, which isn't good for their academic performance.
For fees, they'd just have the university charge them to everyone, then the government could give a scholarship to poorer students who qualified. The main argument against it for me, is that after 18 students are adults and should not be dependent on their parents, even though in practice they often are.
“given that the IRS allows piddling deductions re fees”
That would be for school fees, since the universities are free?
The PT wouldn't have been voting against their own laws. Is there anywhere to look up the results of votes, eg on creating the BF, and see who voted for and against, or at least the numbers on each side?
“it was very little compared to what he could have done”
It's a shame Lula didn't do more, and it's a shame the other governments before him did even less. If they had not set the bar so low, then Lula would not have made such an impression on the poor. You can't blame people for valuing the food that's on their plate as a result of the BF, over much better promises that may not be kept. Now, if another government gets in and eg improves education and opportunities, they might change their minds, but that's not looking at all likely.
@DT
Oct 07th, 2018 - 10:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Polls aren't all that reliable (but do indicate tendencies), and it’s all you have to go by, besides yr gut feeling ‘n speaking to people. No need to take everything I say so literally.
What’s the point of a worrying about “only” the runoff if your ‘preferred’ candidate can’t get there ? It’s a combination of strategic thinking for both rounds.
Still think that students most likely to drop out will be those who don’t have the necry resources to only study, and need to work. Stats on specifics are still hard to come by.
But when/if the ‘quota’ students DO graduate, how good will they be compared to someone who was not ? Higher standards need to be maintained, while they improve all pre-university education
All primary, secondary school and Univ fees, when paid, are deductible – but the deduction allowed is ridiculous.
In ’85 the PT voted against the election (Congress) of 1st civilian prez, Tancredo Neves ; In ’88 they voted against the final text of the Constitution ; in ’93 they refused to participate in a national coalition called by Itamar Franco; In 94 they voted against the Plano Real; in ’96 they voted against re-election , today they favour it ; in 98 they voted against the privatization of the telephone system, today there are over 200 million lines; in 99 they voted against allowing the Real to fluctuate ; in 99 they voted against the establishment of inflationary targets ; in 2000 they voted against the Law of Fiscal Responsibility, to control inflation and public spending ; in 2001 they voted against ALL FHC’s social programs, those which later became the basis for the BF ;
They systematically voted against everything if not their idea. All the socio-economic infrastructure was built prior to the PT, now they claim previous govts did nothing…and the question remains, ‘what did the PT do that was original, once they got into power ? the ‘mensalão’, PB corruption scheme, used the BNDES to favor Lula’s dictator friends etc, etc…they stink.
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