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Tory landslide win paves way for Brexit-exit polls
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party seemed to be on its way to an astounding landslide victory in Thursday general election with would match the party's results from times of Baroness Margaret Thatcher in 1987 and Labour's historic low of 1935, according to exit polls. Read full article
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Dec 13th, 2019 - 07:10 pm - Link - Report abuse -2More Engrish isolationism...
More Scottish independentism...
All in all..., a good result... Think is happy...
And Corbyn is finally going to quit. Every cloud has a silver lining.
Dec 13th, 2019 - 11:30 pm - Link - Report abuse +2Corbyn almost single handily destroyed the Labour Party. To be fair, J.C. blindly stayed to his core socialist beliefs and convinced his party candidates to follow him over a cliff like lemmings. The whole idea that the Americans were planning to take over the NHS was ridiculous!
Dec 14th, 2019 - 12:32 pm - Link - Report abuse +2The importance of the election was which ever party won, that there is large public support for the winners mandate. So that businesses in the UK and Europe can breath a sigh as a major uncertainty can be removed.
Dec 14th, 2019 - 12:51 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Scotland, for present is tied in with UK. This ambivalent situation has always existed. The difficulty for Scotland if she withdraws from the UK, is economically she will have to renew trade ties with everybody else. Not an impossibility, but a rather daunting task. What ever she chooses may it be successful.
Whatever “Dear Nicola” says an independent Scotland re-joining the EU would not be quick or simple.
Dec 14th, 2019 - 02:47 pm - Link - Report abuse +2They would not be offered terms they would want to accept, the EU being so short of cash, would only want net contributors not simply more costs.
Then the Spanish would veto it anyway, they are not going to allow such a precedent for Catalonia to follow.
Then you get to the £15.5Bn deficit on the current level of spending before you add on the cost of running a country.
With the UK Gov/MOD being two of the biggest employers in Scotland oh and the shipyards building RN ships.
They wouldn’t even have a currency.
Whatever your political/emotional leanings, the facts are rather obvious in this case.
TH
Dec 14th, 2019 - 10:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“The difficulty for Scotland if she withdraws from the UK, is economically she will have to renew trade ties with everybody else.”
That makes no sense; the UK will have to do that anyway, and rejoining the EU would put Scotland significantly ahead in that respect.
DT
Dec 15th, 2019 - 12:03 am - Link - Report abuse -1“That makes no sense..” Why? The remainder of the UK has a much larger economy, established trade links and industrial base. Scotland is not potentially a very attractive recruit without the rest of the UK for the EU.
Because Scotland wouldn't be any worse off wrt trade deals than the UK after Brexit, and potentially better off, so that's not a reason to stay in. The real damage would be barriers to trade with the rest of the UK, which AFAIK is the great majority of imports and exports for Scotland.
Dec 15th, 2019 - 02:14 am - Link - Report abuse 0As for joining the EU, they'd be in the best position as a former member with laws already aligned. Only problem might be Spain or any other countries that have separatist regions.
DT
Dec 15th, 2019 - 10:40 am - Link - Report abuse 0“they'd be in the best position as a former member” Yes thats a real plus.
“... barriers to trade with the rest of the UK”. If the UK and EU can get formula right its possible to be a win, win situation for all. That's if sensible elements of the EU hold sway over those that wish for a punative advantage.
Perhaps the Scots should ask the Catalans or Gibraltarians how it works with the EU in these situations???
Dec 15th, 2019 - 02:31 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Or the Irish about the “backstop”, that had to be in the, “unreopenable” withdrawal agreement!!!
Don’t hold your breath on any “broad agreement” being reached between the UK and EU.
Elements like connectivity planes, ship, lorries and some security issues such as extradition and arrest warrants, health care, visas etc. can all be done in the 11 month timescale.
Things like tariff/quota free goods, alignment to EU rules, finical services access, probably can’t to be fair.
Not that it matters, as they are not going to agree anything really substantial in those areas anyway, no matter how long is given.
Given the new crop of Brussels “red lines” appearing fresh from some or other committee, somewhere.
Bare bones will probably be the result, with the option to “add” to the agreement later.
TH
Dec 15th, 2019 - 05:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“possible to be a win, win situation for all”
You think free trade is bad, then? Are you a Peronist who believes in protectionism?
Pugol-H
“Or the Irish about the “backstop””
Maybe they should, since the EU supported and continues to support Ireland on the backstop. Or the Gibraltarians could tell them how the EU forced Spain to reopen the border after 30 years.
It's a way better prospect for Scotland now when they can have the EU supporting them against Britain, compared to before when the EU would not have taken sides and other countries would likely have made more difficulties about them joining.
DT
Dec 15th, 2019 - 07:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“You think free trade is bad” Where does this sophistry come from? When I've just stated the opposite. Peronism is the greater likelihood of a self-professed Argentine apologist like you.
Currently there is free trade between the UK and EU. The UK leaving will make trade less free, and you think this could be good for both. Thus implying you do not support free trade.
Dec 15th, 2019 - 07:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0DT
Dec 15th, 2019 - 07:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“you think this could be good for both” No its better that the UK s..ts and gets off the pot and makes a definitive choice one way or the other. All it means is that the UK will have the final say over what they want. It isn't necessarily obligatorily to restrict free trade, that's your assumption that this will occur.
It's noted you don't deny being an Argentine apologist
“We continued reaffirming the imprescriptible Argentine rights over the Malvinas“ said Minister Jorge Faurie.
kelperabout wrote ”Well dream on land grabbers ...“
To which you responded in your usual Argentine apologist fashion. ”That's a bit unfair. They also want to put their flag up on a pole so they can feel proud of their country.”
https://en.mercopress.com/2019/11/30/argentine-minister-underlines-falklands-cooperation-with-uk-in-his-final-report/comments#comment505343
“It isn't necessarily obligatorily to restrict free trade”
Dec 16th, 2019 - 10:46 am - Link - Report abuse 0The WTO says different. Go look up the most favoured nation rule.
As for Argentina, if you think the chance to wave flags and throw a party in the Plaza de Mayo is a good reason to invade another country, that's on you.
DT
Dec 16th, 2019 - 02:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“As for Argentina ...” You're the only one of either of us to have spoken favourably on her behalf, as I have shown. For myself, I have shown she has no legal claim. But, you have this preference to support those that proffer dishonesty, which says a lot about your lack of character.
While I wouldn't hold my breath on the EU acting properly and proportionately, it isn't compellable that the UK should be punished for exercising a treaty right. If such behavior occurs then the UK would be able to reciprocate and follow the suggestion of Thatcher's that the UK could become an off-shore tax sheltered banking haven.
Argentina is completely irrelevant.
Dec 16th, 2019 - 02:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0”1. Most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally
Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members.”
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm
We can't have free trade with the EU unless we make a formal trade agreement. And the WTO enforces that so it IS obligatory.
And thanks for the suggestion we become a tax haven. Shows what kind of morals you (don't) have.
DT
Dec 16th, 2019 - 03:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“The WTO says different” No it does not, it supports completely what I have stated.
”Trade without discrimination
1. Most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members.
This principle is known as most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment.“
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm
”And thanks for the suggestion.“ It's you who at every opportunity supports those who would harm the UK. Its I who said ”If the UK and EU can get the formula right its possible to be a win, win situation”
It's you who explicitly states that if the EU tries to inflict punitive terms they can skip off into sunset. Wouldn't be that easy
if such a banking arrange was invoked in retaliation to EU failing to act in 'good faith'. Want to bet where the money would go. It's the old adage don't start a fight, but make sure you finish it.
I'll explain this in small words. The EU has tariffs for imports from outside the EU. When the UK leaves the EU it must apply these tariffs to UK imports UNLESS the two sides have ratified a formal agreement. If they do not, they are breaking the most favoured nation clause and the WTO will sue them.
Dec 16th, 2019 - 04:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0As for your tax haven idea, it would punish poor countries all over the world for something the EU did. That is immoral.
DT
Dec 16th, 2019 - 04:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The EU have given Spain a veto over Gibraltar being included in any future agreement.
Irrelevant I know as every country has a veto anyway, but the point was not lost on the Gibraltarians, nor being described as “a Colony” in the visa legislation.
The EU now fully support Spain.
You’ll find the Gibraltarians are not so pro EU nowadays.
Same with the Catalans and they are still EU citizens.
The sound of Spanish riot police cracking heads in Barcelona, was met in Brussels with a Deafening Silence.
Any future attempt by Scotland to re-join the EU would be met with pragmatism by the EU, with cost balance very much in mind.
And vetoed by Spain with Catalonia very much in mind.
The Irish “backstop” is gone, the Irish know it, it will probably cost Varadkar the next election.
TH
Neither side has any reason to be punitive in the coming negations.
Both will try and save what they can.
Most unlikely they will “get the formula right”, certainly in the short term.
It will be interesting to see which way Boris jumps on how far we stay aligned with the EU, which is really the question now, everything else follows that.
I keep reading, especially on EU news sites, how Boris’s big majority allows him to change to a softer Brexit, not being at the mercy of his own hard liners.
It also allows him not to.
DT
Dec 16th, 2019 - 05:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“It would punish poor countries” How exactly? Moreover, banking doesn't appear to be a remit of the WTO.
https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/serv_e.htm
Pugol-H
Dec 16th, 2019 - 08:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“The EU now fully support Spain.”
Yes. They support members over non-members, and the UK - and Gibraltar - are soon to be the latter. This is an expected consequence of leaving.
As for Scotland, the EU have much poorer and less developed members, and it would additionally be a PR boost for them. Spain is the only wildcard, but it's far from certain they'd veto.
The latest deal is for NI to stay in the single market, right? I thought that was what Ireland wanted in the first place?
I am also waiting to see which way Boris goes. He definitely has more freedom of action, but as most of his decisions so far appear to be based on expedience not principles, who knows what he'll do now.
TH
Tax havens are bad for ordinary people because they deprive the state of income that would otherwise be spent on public services. It also potentially reduces the capital available for investment. It is especially harmful to poor countries like Brazil where the elite steal millions and use tax havens to hide it.
DT
Dec 17th, 2019 - 03:10 am - Link - Report abuse 0DT
“Tax havens are” a possible consideration out of many, it all depends on what the EU attempts. Thats why they are called options, they range from sucking up what ever they want to stick you, or weighing other possibilities.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/09/tackling-global-tax-havens-shaxon.htm
Dec 17th, 2019 - 06:52 am - Link - Report abuse 0“Tax havens collectively cost governments between $500 billion and $600 billion a year in lost corporate tax revenue, depending on the estimate, through legal and not-so-legal means. Of that lost revenue, low-income economies account for some $200 billion—a larger hit as a percentage of GDP than advanced economies and more than the $150 billion or so they receive each year in foreign development assistance.”
“Political damage, while unquantifiable, must be added to the charge sheet: most centrally, tax havens provide hiding places for the illicit activities of elites who use them, at the expense of the less powerful majority.”
And note there are also harmful effects on the tax havens themselves. The UK is mentioned as a country that is already too dependent on financial services, and some of the problems mentioned are indeed visible here. Becoming a tax haven is a horrible idea what would only benefit the super-rich at he the expense of ordinary people.
DT
Dec 17th, 2019 - 12:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Becoming a tax haven..”. I'm not suggesting it's a perfect solution or the only one, but if it's the EU's intention to decimate the UK's economy. Then if it came up as option, then the responsibility could be laid at the EU's door; or is your intention to quietly suck it up with whatever detriment to your own standard of living. Your choice I'm unaffected, enjoy the consequences.
It's not the EU's intention to decimate the UK's economy, that would be bad for them, too. And take some responsibility for your actions. If someone attacks you that doesn't make it ok to mug random strangers.
Dec 17th, 2019 - 12:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Can't believe you call yourself a liberal and then advocate becoming a tax haven! Have a look what Glenn Greenwald's site says about them:
https://theintercept.com/2018/10/26/tax-havens-and-other-dirty-tricks-let-u-s-corporations-steal-180-billion-from-the-rest-of-the-world-every-year/
DT
Dec 17th, 2019 - 01:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“If someone attacks you ...” Your entitled to fight back. If they don't play by the Marquis of Queensbury rules then your fool if you do. Just to show your sophism in full flight, I never stated it would apply world wide, this your fictional BS.
We can't be a tax haven only for the EU, of course it would apply worldwide! If that's how you feel you may as well vote for Trump. According to your theory it's fine for him to screw whoever since China isn't fighting fair.
Dec 17th, 2019 - 01:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0DT
Dec 17th, 2019 - 03:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“We can't be a tax haven only for the EU” Only in your evidentiary humble opinion.
Just to show your sophism in full flight, I never stated it would apply world wide, this your fictional BS. Incidentally, off-shore banking is permissible under UK Equity & Trust laws. Why do you think the Rolling Stones and promotor Michael Cohl are all registered off-shore.
“I never stated it would apply world wide”
Dec 17th, 2019 - 04:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You don't need to, that's what tax havens are. It's obvious you just didn't think it through and don't want to admit you were wrong. You can see on the Intercept what real left-wingers think of your idea.
“Why do you think the Rolling Stones and promotor Michael Cohl are all registered off-shore.”
Because rich and powerful people have made sure there are loopholes in the law to allow them to get out of paying taxes like the rest of us. And other rich but less-powerful people benefit from this. The EU threatened to clamp down on tax havens and strangely enough that's when these rich tossers started agitating for Brexit. Why are you supporting financiers who never produced anything in their lives and plan to get rich off ordinary people's misery?
DT
Dec 17th, 2019 - 04:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The EU are just starting the bun fight over the next 5yr budget, probably going to be real cuts, not to mention Macron wants to re-write the whole accession process.
Ask the western Balkans.
The EU are not looking for anymore Net recipient members, question for Scotland would be one of contributions in that respect, however the Spanish WILL veto it.
Oh no, the “Backstop” is gone, in its place is the “revised protocol”
Two very different beasts.
The protocol is time limited then a vote and is N. Ireland specific. Unlike the backstop which kept the whole UK tied to the EU until we agreed the trade deal they wanted.
Problem for the ROI is they do far more business/trade with the mainland UK than they do with NI.
Still, if this time next year ROI exports to UK mainland get WTO tariffs slapped on them, an open border with NI could be a lifeline for them.
And that can now happen under the protocol, which it couldn’t under the backstop.
DT
Dec 17th, 2019 - 08:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“You don't need to ... think of your idea.”
“Parliament can do no wrong”, therefore it could if so chooses, pass legislation that had a geo-block. Thats what happens when you don't have clue about your own constitution law and supplant it with your own spurious speculation. Oops! Stepped on that darn rake-head again. For second time it's not my idea, it was Maggie's. I see why you're so upset, and chuntering on about the morality of it. You are unable to effect any changes in your life, and resent those that can make them in theirs.
“Why are you supporting” a possible option that could be for betterment of the UK's population. Whereas, you'd rather wallow in your own self-pity and don't even have gumption to stand up for your self. So knock your self out, but don't expect me to even entertain such a loser's philosophy. Its alright you'll find someone soon you can cuddle up and ingratiate yourself.
PH
Dec 17th, 2019 - 09:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Scotland isn't the Balkans. And the EU's attitude is rather different now compared to 2014.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49690513
As for Spain, do you have a time machine or do you know what they'd do because of your psychic powers?
“Unlike the backstop which kept the whole UK tied to the EU until we agreed the trade deal they wanted.”
Ireland never wanted the whole UK tied to the EU, they only cared about the open border. The backstop was a means to an end; if that end can be achieved in a different way then it's not needed.
WTO terms would be bad for Ireland, naturally, as for many countries in Europe - and most of all the UK. And today Boris made that more likely, as well as removing workers rights from the deal. I'd say I hope the turkeys enjoy the Christmas they voted for, if only I wasn't one of them. :(
Scotland would have to go through exactly the same process as the W. Balkans,
Dec 18th, 2019 - 05:18 pm - Link - Report abuse +1which is currently stalled, while Macron re-writes the rules. There are no short cuts in terms of the process and currently no agreed process to follow.
So not so quick and easy before you start.
They would have the great advantage of complete alignment, so a much quicker process, which would then come down to terms/contributions/money.
You don’t need to be psychic to realise Spain will not allow a referendum in Catalonia, or a precedent for Catalonia to follow, any more than they will recognise Gibraltar’s right to self-determination.
Catalonia after all, is a big net contributor in Spain.
Will be interesting to see if Croatia ever blocks Serbia from joining the EU.
True it was Teresa May who expanded the backstop to the whole UK, however it was the ROI who insisted it was permanent until the trade deal the EU wanted was agreed.
It was the “no exit clause” that was the problem with it, not the geographical extend of it. Even most of the remainers in Parliament would not vote for that.
I have great sympathy for the ROI in this, it is nothing of their making but they get the most fallout.
Ultimately, whichever way it goes with UK/EU FTAs, I don’t see anybody putting a border back in Ireland, physical or economic. Absolutely nobody wants it, totally in-operable at best.
But if the EU insist, maybe they could have a word with Pres Trump, he may know of some Mexican firms who could quote for the job, after they have finished his.
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