Brazil's National Supply Company, Conab, anticipated forecasts for the coming grains and oilseeds season 2021/22. The soy crop is expected to reach some 141,26 million tons or a 3.9% increase over the current harvest.
As to the area sown, it is estimated at 39,91 million hectares, 3,6% higher than in 2020/21, while yield per hectare could reach 3,539 kilos in 2022, up 0,29%. It seems a tiny increase but it is significant given the latest technologies in which Brazilian farmers have invested, according to Fernando Gomes da Motta, one of Conab's managers.
Conab is also betting that given what seems an unsatiable Chinese demand, exports of soybeans could climb to 87,58 million tons. Even with an increase in the 2022 harvest, we estimate that the difference between global supply and demand will be small next year, which means the relation stocks/world consumption will remain below previous averages, pointed out Gomes de Motta.
Likewise, the low US stocks should help support international prices during 2022, he added.
Thus taking into account the Chinese and Brazilian demands for the oilseed, an attractive foreign exchange rate, and the frustration with the next United States crop should help Brazil remain as the world's leading producer, followed by the US and Argentina.
Finally, the global projection from the Grains International Council estimates world production at 380 million tons for the 2021/22 harvest, compared to the 382 million tons from last month, but above the 362 million tons from the current harvest.