Brazil expects soybean exports to reach 76.8 million tons in 2022, a 200,000-ton decrease from the estimate released in June, while oilseed processing in the country was adjusted upwards, with good margins for the production of bran and oil, according to Abiove, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries
Abiove updates its forecasts monthly, and the July numbers are following a similar pattern to those recorded in June, with an increase in the projections of soy processing in the country and a reduction in the estimate of grain exports after drought led to a poor harvest in 2022.
The soybean crop in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the oilseed, has its harvest almost complete, totaling 125.8 million tons, 300,000 more than the previous estimate. However, this volume is 9.4% below the 2021 record, points out Abiove.
As a result, grain exports are expected to fall by 9.3 million tons compared to the historic level seen in 2021, 86.1 million tons.
According to data from the association that brings together the main trading companies and industries in the sector, soybean processing in Brazil was estimated at a record 48.3 million tons, 200,000 more than the previous forecast and 519,000 tons more than seen in 2021.
As a result, Brazil's soybean meal production in 2022 was estimated at 37 million tons, a slight increase month on month versus 36.77 million in 2021.
Soybean oil production is expected to total 9.8 million tons compared to 9.75 million in the June forecast, with growth compared to 2021 (9.64 million), despite a lower blend of biodiesel in Brazilian diesel oil in 2022.
Total domestic consumption is expected to drop by 100,000 tons of oil year-on-year to 7.9 million tons. However, the reduction in biodiesel is partially offset by demand for other uses (refined oil for food, grease for chemical industries).
Soybean oil exports from Brazil were estimated at 2.15 million tons in 2022, up from 2 million in the previous forecast and 1.65 million in 2021, with the country meeting additional demand from countries that previously purchased Ukrainian sunflower oil, among other factors.
Annual soybean meal exports were also revised to 18.5 million tons from 17.2 million in 2021.