MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Bolsonaro closes in on Lula but still poses no electoral threat

Bolsonaro may not be closing in on Lula fast enough, but at least the CPI's findings against him were dropped

Former President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva's lead over the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has been reported to be at its lowest in the last 13 months, ahead of the Oct. 2 elections.

However, the Workers' Party leader is still comfortably ahead and expected to return to the Planalto Palace, according to the latest survey released Monday by the Institute of Social, Political and Economic Research of Brazil (Ipespe).

The study showed Lula would have 44% support against Bolsonaro's 35%, from the 11-point lead in June. Ipespe has been sensing a steady growth in Bolsonaro's voting intention since January, when it was 24%, while Lula's strength has remained stable at around 44%.

The former head of State has insisted over the past few days that he would focus on revitalizing Mercosur. One of Lula's main advisors, former Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, assured that Lula was in favor of reopening talks on the stalled European Union trade agreement with the South American bloc and of adding provisions on environmental protection, human rights, and technology.

If Lula wins in October, Brazil would likely join calls from Argentina and environmentalists to review the deal blocked in Europe over concerns about the destruction of the Amazon rainforest under Jair Bolsonaro, Amorim told Reuters.

“That doesn't mean renegotiating the whole agreement or starting from scratch,” argued Amorim, who served as Lula's foreign minister during his two terms in office between 2003 and 2010. The position highlights a delicate balance for Lula, who made bold environmental promises while strengthening old ties with agribusiness leaders who criticize Europe's environmental demands as barriers to trade.

The rest of the candidates were far behind. Labor's Ciro Gomes remained third with 9% of the voting intention and center-right Senator Simone Tebet has four 4% support, with no signs of her possible stepping down to allow former President Michel Temer to take her place as a candidate.

If nobody crosses the threshold of 50% of the valid votes in the first round on October 2, there will be a run-off election on October 30. In that case, Lula would get 53% of the votes, against Bolsonaro's 36%, according to the study, conducted between July 22 and 24 among 2,000 people by telephone and which has a margin of error of plus/minus 2%.

Another poll released Monday by the FSB Institute said Lula would beat Bolsonaro by 54% of the votes against 36%. Both studies agreed female voters preferred Lula.

The incumbent president ranks better among the wealthier and from a religious viewpoint Lula performed better among Catholics while Bolsonaro prevailed among Evangelicals.

Also Monday, the Attorney General's Office asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to shelf all charges against Bolsonaro filed by the Senate's investigative committee known as CPI for his alleged mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic. The request also benefits other lower-ranked officials under probe in the same case.

The CPI investigated for just over six months the management of the pandemic, which in Brazil has already killed nearly 680,000 people since February 2020, resulting in a report with serious accusations against Bolsonaro penned in October of 2021.

According to the document, the president would have incurred nine crimes: against humanity, sanitary infractions, medical quackery, incitement to crime, forgery of documents, irregular use of public money, prevarication, epidemic resulting in death, and attacks on the dignity of the office.