Brazil forecasts a crop of 10 million tons of wheat this season, up from a previous estimate of 9.67 million, agribusiness consultancy StoneX said on Wednesday, as farmers in the country continued with their harvesting.
“StoneX’s fourth Brazil wheat crop estimate included significant revisions to yields in the south of the country, which raised national production to more than 10 million tons,” StoneX said.
In September, the analysis company said that the incidence of rains and the absence of frosts in critical periods was the main reason crops had such a good development.
However, the weather throughout October may still redefine yield productivity in the southernmost regions of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul.
“Still, the wet weather is likely only to impact wheat quality and not the final yield volume.”
With increased supply, Brazil’s forecast for wheat exports in 22/23 increased to 2.8 million tons, up from 2.5 million in the previous estimates. This volume would still fall short of the previous harvest when 3 million tons were exported.
“Exports should be lower this season… Although Rio Grande do Sul is moving towards production of 5 million tons, a tight export window can make it difficult to have such a large volume shipped,” he commented.
Brazil’s wheat imports were estimated at 6.2 million tons, a stable volume compared to the previous month’s forecast, with a slight increase predicted year on year.
“Imports should grow a little this year, with prices in Argentina more attractive for the first half of 2023. However, the greater supply shipped in the country should be consumed by more active mills, accounting for 12.2 million tons of the harvest,” StoneX said.
Brazil with improved seeds and better adapted to its climate conditions is targeting wheat self sufficiency sometime this decade and with a sustained export surplus. Traditional suppliers of wheat to Brazil have been Mercosur partners, mostly Argentina and occasionally Uruguay.
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