MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina: Milei likely to make it to the runoff next year, poll shows

Milei's challenge to Argentina's political status quo is to be taken seriously

Argentine media reported over the weekend that ultraliberal Congressman Javier Milei might make it to the runoff in next year's presidential elections, which would bring an end to the polarization between the leftwing Peronists of the Everybody's Front (Frente de Todos - FdT) and the center-leftists of Together for Change (Juntos por el Cambio - JxC).

As Argentine voters are finding it harder to see any substantial difference between the two largest coalitions, there is more space for newcomers, as it happened in Chile, Peru, and Colombia, it was explained in Buenos Aires.

The survey conducted by IPD between Oct. 10 and 14 among 1,043 respondents measured six first-round scenarios with a margin of error of +/- 2.5%. Only in one of those scenarios is the libertarian economist left out of a hypothetical second round.

• Scenario I: Larreta 29% / Milei 29% / Cristina 27%;
• Scenario II: Milei 28% / Larreta 27% / Massa 25%;
• Scenario III: Milei 30% / Bullrich 27% / Massa 24%;
• Scenario IV: Bullrich 29% / Cristina 28% / Milei 27%;
• Scenario V: Milei 30% / Cristina 28% / Macri 25%;
• Scenario VI: Milei 31% / Massa 25% / Macri 25%.

The survey also confirmed that inflation is by far the main problem for Argentines.

Regarding the political leaders' image; Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta stands at +47%, -47% negative; PRO Chairwoman Patricia Bullrich at +45% and -50%, and Milei at +45% and -49%.

Among the ruling Frente de Todos (FdT), Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner tops the list with 22% saying they would vote for her for sure, while 14% would probably join in, bringing her ceiling up to 36%.

Meanwhile, according to the consulting firm Zuban Córdoba, the voting intention for Milei is 42%, placing him at Bullrich's 48.8%. Former President Mauricio Macri has 39.4%, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is fourth with 38.4%, and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner comes next with 33.2%.

Regarding Milei's positive image, the CB consulting firm said it also grew in eleven provinces: Tucumán 57%, Salta 57%, Misiones 56%, San Luis 56%, San Juan 54%, Jujuy 54%, La Rioja 54%, Catamarca 53%, Chaco 52%, Santa Cruz 47% and Tierra del Fuego 46%, while Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was only able to win in two territories: Formosa with 56.5% and Santiago del Estero with 54.6%.