MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Falklands, most Britons believe it should remain a BOT, and if the Islands join Argentina, “35% would be upset”

Britons’ opinions on the Falklands largely mirror those towards Gibraltar: 47% put the decision to the Islanders on the three-way question.

UK public opinion pollster YouGov asked Britons about their views towards Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar and the Falkland Islands based on the question of ”How would Britons feel if parts of the UK left?, including the two Overseas Territories, Falkland Islands and Gibraltar, which have regional disputes, Argentina and Spain.

Overall regarding the Falkland Islands, most Britons (52%) say the Falklands should stay as a British overseas territory, while only 16% think they should go to Argentina. And were the Falklands to join with Argentina, 35% would be upset, 9% would be pleased, and 46% wouldn’t care either way.

However the main reason for the survey was the recent 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement. YouGov asked mainland Britons whether or not they wanted to see Northern Ireland stay in the UK or Leave, and if the latter were to occur, how upset by that they would be.

But Northern Ireland is not the only constituent part of the United Kingdom whose future is in question. Scotland’s government is controlled by that nation’s separatist party, and Wales likewise has a sizeable independence movement. And further afield, the UK shares competing sovereignty claims over the British Overseas Territories of Gibraltar and the Falkland Islands.

To test how the British public feel about maintaining the country in its current shape, YouGov ran two surveys – one giving a two-way question (plus a don’t know choice) asking respondents whether they thought that area should stay a part of the UK or whether it should leave. The second gave respondents a three-way question, identical to the first but with the addition of a further option to say that the choice should be up to the people living there.

We also asked Britons how pleased or upset they would be were each area to gain its independence or join with another country. The survey was conducted in mainland Britain, i.e. respondents are in England, Wales and Scotland only.

Let's start with Northern Ireland, What do mainland Britons want to happen to Northern Ireland?

Northern Ireland is the area Britons are least interested in holding on to, compared to Scotland and Wales, which have strong independent parties. The predominant opinion on the three-way question is that it is for the people of Northern Ireland to decide whether to stay in the UK or join the rest of Ireland, at 44%. One in three (32%) want Northern Ireland to stay, while 18% think it should join the Republic.

Compared with the results of the three-way question, the results of the two-way question represent the highest shift towards ‘leave’ (as well as to ‘don’t know’), and the lowest shift towards ‘stay’. In this question, 40% of mainland Britons would want Northern Ireland to continue in the UK, compared to 34% saying it should go.

These three-way results are markedly different to those from April, when 53% preferred to leave the matter to the Northern Irish, 22% wanted them to remain in the UK and 13% said they should join the rest of Ireland.

It does appear from previous surveys that attitudes towards Northern Ireland can vary in a short space of time; it may be the case that the question is susceptible to ordering effects. Nevertheless, the results do consistently show a high level of apathy for what happens to Northern Ireland, with the main difference being to what extent the responses shift between sentiments of disinterest and desire to keep the nation within the UK.

How much would Britons care if Northern Ireland left the UK? Unlike Scotland and Wales, the primary reaction to Northern Ireland leaving the UK to join with the rest of Ireland is apathy: 43% of mainland Britons wouldn’t be bothered. Only a third (32%) would be upset, while 15% would be pleased.

Again, these figures are notably different to April’s poll, when 50% said they were apathetic, 22% upset and 11% pleased, likely for reasons already outlined.

What about the Overseas Territories of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. How much would Britons care if Gibraltar was no longer British?

As with Northern Ireland, Britons are not especially bothered about holding on to ‘The Rock’, with 48% indifferent. One in three (33%) would be upset were Gibraltar to return to Spain, while 9% would be happy.

And what do Britons want to happen to the Falkland Islands?

While you might expect there to be a greater emotional connection to the Falkland Islands – given the war fought to recover them – this is not the case. Besides, despite Falklands held a referendum in 2013 with a massive turnout and an almost unanimous decision to remain as an Overseas Territory, part of the British Family.

Britons’ opinions on the Falklands largely mirror those towards Gibraltar: 47% put the decision to the Islanders on the three-way question. One in three (34%) say it should remain British, while 9% would rather it went to Argentina.

On the two-way question, most Britons (52%) say the Falklands should stay as a British overseas territory, while only 16% think they should go to Argentina.

How much would Britons care if the Falkland Islands were no longer British?
Again, these results are essentially identical to those for Gibraltar: were the Falklands to join with Argentina, 35% would be upset, 9% would be pleased, and 46% wouldn’t care either way.