MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina: BCRA REM report foresees 2.3% CPI in January

The latest REM report showed a slight improvement from its previous issue's projections

Argentine Central Bank's (BCRA) monthly Market Expectations Outlook (REM) released Thursday foresaw January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) would stand at 2.3%. Back in December 2024, the REM expected it to be 2.5%.

The prediction from leading economists was published a week before the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Indec) announced the official figures. Experts from over 40 consulting firms also forecast this year's inflation to reach 23.2% (2.7 percentage points (p.p) below the previous REM's calculations).

The REM analysts also estimated the following inflation rates for the first segment of 2025: February: 2.1%; March: 2%; April: 1.9%; May: 1.8%; June: 1.7%; July: 1.6%.

Meanwhile, the parity between the Argentine peso (AR$) and the US dollar (US$) would be US$ 1 = AR$ 1,201. In other words, the US dollar would significantly trail inflation after growing only 17.6% annually. Starting this month, the BCRA implemented a slower devaluation of the official exchange rate and brought it to 1% per month. Hence, it would close February at AR$ 1,054.5, and AR$1,065.8 in March, or AR$ 4.9 less than the previous estimate. April's projection also fell AR$ 7.2 from the last report, reaching AR$ 1,077.5.

The panel also foresaw an increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1% during the first quarter of 2025 and 4.6% for the entire year.

In addition, unemployment would stand at 6.8% of the Economically Active Population in the last quarter of 2025, which would represent a slight yoy improvement from 2024's 7%.

Regarding foreign trade, FOB exports would total US$ 83.126 billion against imports worth US$ 69.1 billion.