MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Runoff seems inevitable after Sunday's elections in Ecuador

All pollsters foresee Noboa and González qualifying for the second round

A runoff scheduled for April 13 seems inevitable in Ecuador after this coming Sunday's elections. Pollsters do not seem to agree on the exact figures but all of them foresee that incumbent President Daniel Noboa and his leftwing challenger Luisa González would finish among the two top contenders with neither clinching a decisive majority of at least 50%.

A little over a year ago, then-President Guillermo Lasso resigned and called for snap elections to pick a successor to complete his term. In that case, Noboa became the country's youngest-ever head of State after edging González, the protegée of Rafael Correa, who is in exile in Belgium to avoid incarceration for his involvement in cases of corruption after over ten years in power.

According to Ipsos and Cedatos, Noboa would bet between 41 and 48% of the vote, while Negocios y Estrategias foresees González finishing first with 44%, 3 points ahead of her rival.

Comunicaliza estimates Noboa would triumph with little over 40% against González's 35%, while Politiks Studio found the latter ahead with 47% against 45% for the current president.

From being one of the safest in the world, Ecuador has become a “dangerous country”, according to the Global Peace Index. In 2024 the homicide rate was 40 per 100,000 inhabitants while the rate for Latin America and the Caribbean is 18 and globally 6, according to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

A World Bank (WB) study predicted that the country's economy would decrease by 0.7% in 2024. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), poverty went up from 26 to 28% in December 2024, the highest rate since the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, Ecuador has been experiencing an energy crisis in the last few months, with prolonged blackouts of up to 14 hours a day.

“It is a polarized election as never before. Basically with two candidates in a technical tie, both around 45%,” former Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner was quoted as saying. “There is still about a third of the constituency undecided and they can clearly” make a difference, he added.