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China comparing Trump with an Empress who is 1900 succumbed to foreign powers and ended the empire

Trump is likened to Empress Dowager Cixi, who in 1900 effectively declared war on the Western powers in China, a disastrous move that helped accelerate the collapse of imperial China.

By Wang Wen for South China Morning Post (*) - A viral political cartoon circulating in China shows US President Donald Trump dressed in the imperial robes of the Qing dynasty. He is likened to Empress Dowager Cixi, who in 1900 effectively declared war on the Western powers in China, a disastrous move that helped accelerate the collapse of imperial China

To many Chinese observers, the cartoon is a warning: Trump, in launching his latest damaging round of tariffs, seems trapped in a tragic and ill-advised Game of Thrones, fueled by outdated assumptions about America’s industrial might and global dominance.

Some worry that today’s world is feeling eerily similar to the pre-World War II era of escalating tariffs, with economic aggression eventually spilling over into military conflict. It’s anyone’s guess which nation the United States might go to war with next: Yemen? Iran? Somewhere in Africa or Latin America? The Falkland Islands? Perhaps Heard Island and McDonald Islands? Are the penguins there ready to rebuff US Marines?

One thing is for certain, in my opinion: it won’t be China. Why? Not because China lacks resolve. Quite the opposite, China will never yield to the US on any issue of core interest. But Beijing does not seek confrontation. It merely prepares for it.

On a January 17 phone call with Trump, three days before his inauguration, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that as two major powers with different systems, the US and China must manage disputes through mutual respect and dialogue. Xi warned that conflict and confrontation should not be the path forward. These were not empty words: they reflect a consistent strategic approach.

Amid surging tensions, China’s response to Trump’s tariff provocations has been disciplined and calculated. There has been no military escalation. This restraint is not a sign of weakness. It reflects China’s confidence, composure and long-term vision.

Since Trump’s first term, China has accumulated deep experience in dealing with Washington’s unpredictable policies. During Trump’s first presidency, the US tried to punish Chinese trade with tariffs that amounted to nearly 20 per cent by 2020. Joe Biden kept the tariffs on billions worth of Chinese imports when he was president and levied some more.

While Chinese exports to the US have declined overall since 2018, China still exported goods valued at US$439 billion to the US in 2024 while US exports to China were worth US$144 billion. China’s most competitive exports – such as lithium batteries and toys – remain in high demand in the US. In contrast, American exports like soybeans and crude oil are easily replaced with alternatives. China’s imposition of retaliatory tariffs means a further erosion of US competitiveness in these sectors.

Some Chinese companies are seizing the opportunity to globalize. Factories are expanding overseas, supply chains are diversifying and multinational corporations are adapting. In effect, Trump is pushing Chinese companies to go abroad and accelerating their internationalization, inadvertently helping China.

China’s broader strategy is not confrontation but adaptation. Domestic reforms have deepened. Technology breakthroughs have been prioritized. Openness to foreign investment has increased. All of this has made China more resilient, and more attractive as a global economic hub.

Time, as anyone Chinese can see, is on China’s side.

Of course, China must not ignore the military dimension. Over the past two decades, China has modernized its defense capabilities. Today, China operates three aircraft carriers in the Pacific, fields advanced sixth-generation fighter jets and maintain an arsenal of Dong-feng missiles. More than 70 per cent of the world’s drones are produced in China.

The US knows this. Smarter people in Washington, including those in think tanks like the Rand Corporation or Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), have run many war simulations – over Taiwan, the South China Sea or the Korean peninsula – and the results are sobering. Many show an America unable to achieve victory, and in some cases facing disastrous losses.

Chinese historians like to cite the Korean war as a symbol of our strategic resolve. In 1950, without a fully formed navy or air force, China helped push US-led forces back below the 38th parallel. Today, China is vastly more capable. If the US truly went mad and launched a war, the consequences would be far worse than those of the Korean war.

Despite the heightened tensions, it is important to note China has never initiated a military conflict with the US. Whether over trade, technology, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Taiwan or Tibet, Beijing has responded to provocations, not started them. The latest trade clash is no exception. For now, China continues to absorb, respond and adapt.

The Chinese cartoon likened Trump to Cixi. When she issued her 1900 edict against the foreign powers in China, the empress dowager did so fully believing, it would seem, that the Qing dynasty remained dominant. It didn’t and within barely a decade, it collapsed. To Chinese internet users, Trump’s tariffs show the same delusion. He thinks America can still dictate terms to the world, but that era has passed.

Manufacturing is no longer America’s strength. The real collapse of US hegemony may have begun under Trump. From Beijing’s perspective, the best way to deal with Trump is not through confrontation, but through steady governance, strategic patience and global integration. China is not afraid of a trade war. It just doesn’t believe it’s a game worth playing.

(*) Wang Wen, is a professor and executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.