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Starmer is teeing up Gibraltar for another Overseas betrayal, Falklands next?, RUSI scholar

Former British Home Secretary Suella Braverman has warned that “the Falklands will be next”

Dr. Samuel Ramani is a distinguished scholar from UK think-tank RUSI, (Royal United Services Institute), and has written a piece of the Gibraltar Agreement, which place him close to the Conservative’s position which asks if the Falklands could probably be next.

Britain is ceding a major part of its sovereignty over the peninsula of Gibraltar. Ahead of his meeting with Gibraltar’s chief minister David Picardo, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has apparently agreed to hand over discretion over entry and exit into Gibraltar to Spanish and European border guards.  

The British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has downplayed the significance of Lammy’s decision and insists that the terms of the deal with Spain are still being agreed. Nevertheless, the news of Britain giving up its influence over Gibraltar’s borders has already triggered fiercely polarised reactions. 

Defenders of Lammy’s agreement argue that it removes a critical obstacle to stronger economic and security cooperation with the European Union (EU). The FCDO has implied that this deal would improve Gibraltar’s business climate and not compromise Britain’s sovereignty over Gibraltar. Britain’s Europe and Overseas Territories Minister Stephen Doughty has repeatedly declared that the United Kingdom’s sovereignty over Gibraltar is non-negotiable. 

Critics of the deal, however, view it as an act of betrayal that will undermine Britain’s border security and control over its overseas territories. Former British Home Secretary Suella Braverman has warned that “the Falklands will be next” and British Conservative MP Caroline Dinenage tied the decision’s timing to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s spending review. 

While the short-term economic benefits of this compromise should not be discounted, critics of the agreement have compelling arguments. 

In a November 2002 referendum, 98.97% of Gibraltarians voted against sharing the sovereignty of Gibraltar with Spain. The restoration of full British border control over Gibraltar in 2020 was the direct consequence of Britons voting to leave the EU in June 2016. 

A unilateral handover of Gibraltar’s border security to Spain and Europe is an anti-democratic gesture, as it was not preceded by any form of plebiscite. It also runs against the grain of current public opinion, as there is widespread support for a Gibraltar MP in the House of Commons. Most people in Gibraltar want more UK-Gibraltar integration, not less. 

Moreover, it reflects an alarming willingness to undermine Britain’s sovereignty over its Overseas Territories. Britain’s handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius was a blow to its global power projection and has potentially enabled Chinese expansionism in the Indian Ocean. The forced integration of Gibraltar with Spain, which has much more open migration policies and struggles with maritime illegal immigration, continues this worrying trend. 

While Falkland Islands Governor Alison Blake has hailed Britain’s unwavering commitment to sovereignty of the Islands, can these assurances really be believed? To anyone watching Starmer’s handling of Chagos and Gibraltar, NO is the justified answer.

(*) Dr Samuel Ramani has been an Associate Fellow at RUSI since 2021 and is the CEO of Pangea Geopolitical Risk (PGR), a London-based consultancy. Before joining RUSI, Samuel completed his MPhil in Russian and East European Studies, and DPhil in International Relations at St Antony's College, University of Oxford. Samuel is the author of two recent books on Russian foreign policy for Hurst and Oxford University Press: 'Putin's War on Ukraine: Russia's Campaign for Global Revolution' (2023) and 'Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender'. Samuel's third book 'Rudderless Superpower: The United States in Africa' will be published by the same publishers in 2025.

Samuel is an accomplished public speaker who is represented by Chartwell Speakers Bureau and a regular commentator for the BBC, Sky News, CNN, France-24 and Al Jazeera. He contributes regularly to The Telegraph, and his articles have also been featured in The Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The Wall Street Journal and The Times. In his capacity as a consultant, Samuel regularly advises the UK and US government, and private sector on security issues pertaining to Russia, North Korea, China, Africa and the Middle East.