MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil's soybean shipments to China make up for Beijing's purchases from US

Trump's tariff war benefited Brazil and also Argentina

After China suspended purchases of soybeans from the United States between June and August, due to President Donald Trump's tariff war, other suppliers, such as Brazil and Argentina, have found a new niche, according to a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents 6 million American farmers.

 The organization said Chinese imports of US soybeans plummeted to their lowest level ever in 2025. In contrast, Brazil became the main supplier of the grain to the Asian giant. Between January and August 2025, China imported only 5.8 million tons of American soybeans, compared to 26.5 million in the same period last year, a drop of almost 80%. From June to August, the report pointed out, the United States shipped “virtually nothing” in soybeans to China, and the Asian country did not purchase any new crops for next year's harvest.

In contrast, Brazil exported more than 77 million tons of the product to the Chinese market during the same period. During the same period, Argentina increased soybean sales after suspending the export tax, refunding the tax after the exported value exceeded US$7 billion.

According to the American Federation of Agricultural Offices, the downturn is not a one-off event and is the result of China's supplier diversification policy, which has been in place for years. Since 2018, when Trump's first administration started the trade war, China has stopped giving priority to US farmers, even though domestic demand in China is at record levels.

In addition to soybeans, US exports of corn, wheat, and sorghum to China fell to zero in 2025, and sales of pork and cotton remain sluggish.

According to the survey, the US Department of Agriculture projects that the total value of agricultural exports to China will fall to US$17 billion this year, 30% lower than in 2024 and more than 50% lower than in 2022. For 2026, the estimate is even lower: only US$9 billion, the lowest level since 2018.

The Trump administration is preparing a new financial aid package for rural producers, similar to the one granted in 2019, when more than US$22 billion was allocated to the sector during the first trade war with China. “We will use the tariff resources to support our farmers,” Trump said on his Truth Social network. At the same time, the US Treasury is studying emergency measures to contain the agricultural trade deficit.

In addition to the trade war, US farmers are suffering from falling commodity prices (internationally traded primary goods) and rising logistics costs, exacerbated by low water levels in the Mississippi River. The US Department of Agriculture estimates that the country's agricultural income will drop 2.5% in 2025, reaching its lowest level since 2007. (Source: Agencia Brasil)