Brazilian farmers will have a record soy output in the new season as they are sowing the oilseed over a larger area, the government’s crop agency Conab said this week in the first forecast report for the 2023/24-grain cycle.
As with other crops, Brazil is close to unseating the US to become the world’s biggest cotton exporter as Texas, America’s top-producing region, buckles under searing heat and drought.
Brazilian primary goods exports could surpass last year's export record of US$ 159 billion, be it not for the sharp drop in commodity prices on the foreign market.
The world’s soybean market is dominated by one major buyer: China, and for years, Mercosur's leading member Brazil has taken an increasingly bigger share of that trade away from the US. So much so that Brazilian shippers are even starting to dominate during the typical season lull.
Brazil is expected to harvest a record 317.5 million tons of grains in the 2022-23 agriculture cycle, which is 44.9 million tons (16.5%) more than the previous year, according to the 10th Grain Harvest Survey by Conab, the country’s food supply and statistics agency.
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) reported that the soybean harvest in Brazil, already completed in 2023, exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision in export forecasts for soybean grain, meal, and oil this year. Soy remains Brazil’s primary export product.
Brazil has enough potential to supply up to half of the soybeans that Argentina will import to keep its industrial park running in the face of the historic drought that ravaged the 2022/23 crop in the country, which is usually the largest exporter of soy oil and soy meal in the world.
Brazil is on track for a record-high Brazilian soybean harvest in the marketing year 2022-23 (January-December 2023), based on forecasts from commodity consultancies and government-owned institutions. The likely estimate means a looming oversupply expected to remain until at least mid-2023.
Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 78 million tons this year, 9.3% down from 86.3 million tons in 2021, according to the grain exporters’ association Anec. But the figure is 2.5 million tons higher than the previous 75.5 million tons estimate for full-year soybean shipments.
Brazil shipped 55.1 million tons of soybeans in the first half of 2022, which is 8.87% less than in the same period of 2021 (60.5 million tons), according to the National Association of Cereal Exporters. (Anec).