Brazil has enough potential to supply up to half of the soybeans that Argentina will import to keep its industrial park running in the face of the historic drought that ravaged the 2022/23 crop in the country, which is usually the largest exporter of soy oil and soy meal in the world.
Brazil is on track for a record-high Brazilian soybean harvest in the marketing year 2022-23 (January-December 2023), based on forecasts from commodity consultancies and government-owned institutions. The likely estimate means a looming oversupply expected to remain until at least mid-2023.
Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 78 million tons this year, 9.3% down from 86.3 million tons in 2021, according to the grain exporters’ association Anec. But the figure is 2.5 million tons higher than the previous 75.5 million tons estimate for full-year soybean shipments.
Brazil shipped 55.1 million tons of soybeans in the first half of 2022, which is 8.87% less than in the same period of 2021 (60.5 million tons), according to the National Association of Cereal Exporters. (Anec).
Warehouses in Brazil are still full of soybeans, harvested just a few months before corn. In the state of Mato Grosso, soybean production was high this season, but at the same time sales are slower than usual, leaving warehouses with no space for corn, according to Cleiton Gauer, superintendent of the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA).
Soybeans, corn, sugar, coffee, beef, pork, and chicken are the main goods in Brazil’s export portfolio, and should benefit from the current 'food inflation' in world markets until probably 2023, says analyst Elizabeth Johnson from the TS Lombardy consultancy.
Brazilian farmers are planning to expand their soy area for the 15th consecutive year, according to a survey by consulting firm Datagro. The world’s largest soybean producer and exporter will increase the area sown by 4%, to 40.57 million hectares in the 2021/2022 season.
Brazil should collect more than 300 million tons of grain by the 2024/25 harvest, three seasons earlier than initially planned, according to new projections by the Ministry of Agriculture. The previous forecast was to reach the target in the 2027/28 cycle.
Brazil expects to harvest bumper soybean and corn crops in spite of planting and harvesting delays in 2020. A drought late last year delayed sowing of Brazil’s soybeans, and excess rainfall disrupted harvesting in January. This delayed delivery of grain to trading companies and affected Brazil’s ability to export.
Brazilian farmers have sold 56.5% of their beans in advance through December 4, Safras & Mercado, an agribusiness consultancy, said in a statement last Friday. Considering Brazil is poised to collect 133.517 million tons of the oilseeds this season, the volume of pre-sold soy amounts to an estimated 75.403 million tons, Safras said.