MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

FAO Food Prices decline in October, with the exception of beef

Beef prices continued to rise, driven by higher quotations from Australia due to firm global demand.

World food commodity prices generally declined in October, driven largely by ample global supplies, according to the benchmark measure released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). However beef continued to rise because of a very firm global demand.

 The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 126.4 points in October, down 1.6 percent from its revised September level.

The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 1.3 percent from September, with declines recorded across all the major cereals. The wheat price index dropped by 1.0 percent, the coarse grain index by 1.1 percent, and the FAO All Rice Price Index by 2.5 percent.

The FAO Meat Price Index declined by 2.0 percent in the month, led by sharp drops in pig and poultry prices. Bovine meat prices, however, continued to rise, driven by higher quotations from Australia due to firm global demand.

The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 3.4 percent in October, led by a sharp decline in butter quotations tied to ample export availabilities from the European Union and New Zealand. Milk powder quotations also fell, due to limited import demand and strong export competition.

The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 5.3 percent from the previous month to its lowest level since December 2020, driven by strong production trends in Brazil and anticipated larger outputs in Thailand and India. Lower crude oil prices also exerted further downward pressure on world sugar prices through lower demand from the biofuel sector.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index moved against the overall downward trend, rising by 0.9 percent in October to its highest level since July 2022. Quotations for palm, rapeseed, soy and sunflower oils all rose, due to a mix of factors including biofuel mandates and harvest delays in the Black Sea region.

Forecasts point to record cereal output and stocks

FAO also released updated forecasts for global cereal markets. World cereal production is expected to rise by 4.4 percent in 2025 to reach 2 990 million tones a new record level, with foreseen output increases across all major cereals.

The new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief also forecast world cereal utilization in 2025/26 to increase by 1.8 percent from the previous year to 2 929 million tons, due mainly to ample supplies and lower prices. Feed use of cereals is expected to rise at a faster pace.

Based on the updated forecasts, global cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 5.7 percent to a record high of 916.3 million tons. The resulting global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2025/26 is predicted to rise to 31.1 percent, the highest level since 2017/18.

FAO’s updated forecast for world trade in cereals in the 2025/26 season points to a 3.2 percent increase to 499.5 million tons. International wheat trade is expected to grow robustly, driven largely by higher imports from Asia, while global rice trade is forecast to decline slightly. 

The latest trend on export restrictions, according to FAO, also seems to be easing with relaxations in Argentina, India and the Russian Federation – countries that accounted for most of such measures from January 2024 through June 2025.