MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina’s stats chief quits as Milei’s government freezes inflation index overhaul

Caputo (left) linked Lavagna’s (right) resignation to disagreements with President Javier Milei over timing, and said: “There is no need to change the index now… it makes virtually no difference.”

Argentina’s national statistics agency, INDEC, said its director, Marco Lavagna, stepped down on Monday after more than six years in the post, just as the country was preparing to launch a revamped consumer price index (CPI). Within hours, Economy Minister Luis Caputo confirmed the methodology change would be delayed indefinitely “until the disinflation process is consolidated,” with no new date set.

Caputo linked Lavagna’s resignation to disagreements with President Javier Milei over timing, and told Radio Rivadavia: “There is no need to change the index now… it makes virtually no difference.” The government named Pedro Lines, INDEC’s technical director, as the new head of the agency.

At the center of the dispute is the long-planned CPI rebasing, scheduled to debut with January data due on February 10. The update would switch CPI weights to those derived from the 2017–2018 national household expenditure survey, replacing a basket still anchored in 2004. The goal was to better reflect current spending patterns and increase the weight of services relative to goods.

The reversal has fueled speculation that the new basket could produce a higher headline reading than the current measure, complicating the government’s disinflation narrative and its 2026 inflation target of 10.1% embedded in the national budget. Private forecasts collected by Argentina’s central bank point to roughly 20.1% inflation in 2026—about double the official target—according to EFE and Reuters reporting.

The argument is particularly sensitive because regulated prices have surged in recent years. Electricity, gas, water and transport—previously heavily subsidized—have seen increases that, in several stretches, outpaced the rise in goods such as food and clothing. In a report referenced by EFE, the central bank warned that under the new methodology tariff updates would tend to have a larger impact, alongside indexation mechanisms in rents and building fees and the evolution of wages.

Officials argue that changing the CPI during a disinflation phase could trigger political “speculation” about the drop in inflation. Critics counter that an outdated basket helps explain why many Argentines feel day-to-day inflation is higher than the official figures suggest. A Chequeado analysis, drawing on private-sector calculations, found that the basket update can shift measured inflation across specific periods and categories, with services playing a larger role under the newer weights.

The CPI update had also been cited as part of technical commitments under Argentina’s International Monetary Fund's program, aligned with international classification and national accounts consistency.