MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in a potential Brazil runoff

The poll places Flávio Bolsonaro on 46.3% versus Lula on 46.2% in a potential runoff, a gap well within the margin of error

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are virtually tied in a simulated second-round vote for October’s election, according to an AtlasIntel survey conducted for Bloomberg News — the first poll to show the pair at parity in a head-to-head scenario.

The poll places Flávio Bolsonaro on 46.3% versus Lula on 46.2% in a potential runoff, a gap well within the margin of error. AtlasIntel surveyed 4,986 people from Feb. 19 to Feb. 24 and reported a 1 percentage point margin of error.

In the simulated first round, Lula still leads Flávio Bolsonaro, though the distance narrows compared with earlier measurements. The survey also points to high levels of rejection for both candidates, a dynamic that can limit late-stage growth in a polarized race and make the contest hinge on a relatively small pool of swing voters.

Flávio Bolsonaro hailed the results on social media, framing the contest as the start of a push to “rescue Brazil,” according to remarks carried by the press. The senator is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains sidelined from a direct presidential run amid ongoing legal proceedings, according to international reporting cited alongside the poll coverage.

The Bolsonaro name’s rise comes as Lula has kept an active international schedule in recent months, seeking trade and diplomatic partnerships. Domestically, the president faces scrutiny tied to a congressional investigation into alleged fraud in Brazil’s pension system. Press reports say a legislative commission approved steps to review bank and tax records linked to one of Lula’s sons as part of that inquiry.

Brazil will hold presidential, congressional and governors’ elections in October. Under Brazil’s electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two advance to a runoff — an outcome that has been common in recent cycles.