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Why Prediction Markets Have Taken Off Globally and in the USA

While the Mercosur region has yet to embrace prediction markets, there’s no question that it has taken off in the US and other regions. Now that South American countries are starting to take their stance on these new markets, readers should understand what they are, where they came from, and why they’re getting so much attention.

92% chance Milei remains in power through 2026. https://t.co/muE27jnlFK

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 3, 2026

Prediction Markets Link Back to Investing and Fantasy Sports

To understand prediction markets, let’s first take a look at where much of their audience came from. For that, we need to look in two places – the stock market and daily fantasy sports (DFS) platforms.

The world’s stock markets need no introduction, and prediction markets mirror them by treating prediction contracts like a traded security. You buy contracts in a prediction and, as the event gets closer, their price will fluctuate between $0 and $1.

This allows prediction market traders to buy and sell sentiment before the market resolves or hold with conviction if they believe they’re on the winning side. Those getting into prediction markets should check their functioning, especially how Continuous Double Auctions work.

Meanwhile, DFS took the fun of fantasy sports and condensed it into an everyday activity. It helped create a large US audience for platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings, delivered on convenient apps similar to the ones now used by prediction markets. So, when prediction markets hit the scene, they found a ready-made audience willing to bet on more than just fantasy sports.

Prediction Markets Started in 2020

Polymarket stood out for its pro-cryptocurrency stance, something that South America has embraced. It was also helped by the same bonus promotion strategy used by DFS platforms or casinos in the past, giving new players the opportunity to try out the service. Despite the platform’s growth, new players can still get early access with a Polymarket promo code, plus an extra $20 from a $20 deposit. Once in, newcomers can predict everything from tournament winners to oil price fluctuations and other geopolitical events.

While political betting has always existed, the big prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi launched in 2020 or later. These markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), so they are distinct from sports betting, but in covering the world’s biggest events, they offer markets for world sports events too. Naturally, this meant they found a growing audience in the US and other countries where betting is more common.

Prediction Markets Cover Everything

That touches on the ultimate reason why prediction markets have taken off in the US and are set to do the same everywhere else. They offer markets on a wide variety of interests, so they’re not just capturing traditional investors and the sports betting audience.

Politics is a big niche where markets range from strictly business, like political appointments, to the absurd, like whether the US president says a chosen word during his next speech. It’s not just limited to the US, either, with markets following Mercosur figures like Javier Milei.

It also lets movie and music lovers get in on the action by betting on who will sweep the Oscars, Grammys, and other culture-defining award shows. We just saw this with the 2026 Oscars, where Sinners and One Battle After Another battled each other on Polymarket’s Best Picture Winner market.

Photo: Unsplash

The result is a popular and growing ‘everything market’ where a certain type of person can bet on any cultural or memetic trend. These markets are also spreading. As of 2026, the old DFS services like FanDuel and DraftKings are also launching their own prediction market platforms.