MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

De la Espriella leads Colombia's runoff with contained triumphalism as Cepeda hopes for a late surge

The first-round margin does not look comfortable heading into the runoff

Right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella heads into Colombia's presidential runoff, set for this Sunday, June 21, as the favorite, though with contained triumphalism, while left-wing senator Iván Cepeda trusts that a late push can still overturn the result. Both campaigns sense the election is closer than the polls reflect.

Most surveys give De la Espriella a lead —an AtlasIntel poll for Semana magazine put him at 52.2% against Cepeda's 44.5%— in line with his victory in the first round on May 31, when he beat his rival by some 632,222 votes (43.7% to 40.9%). Right-wing candidate Paloma Valencia, third at the time, later endorsed the front-runner. Analysts, however, recall that polls are “a snapshot” of the moment and not a definitive result. “Let's not get overconfident; this is not won with polls,” warned De la Espriella's campaign chief, former senator Mauricio Gómez Amín.

The first-round margin does not look comfortable heading into the runoff. Close to three million votes from other candidates and more than 400,000 blank votes are up for grabs, along with a possible rise in turnout, like the one that defined Gustavo Petro's election in 2022. Also weighing in is the departure of some 80,000 Colombians to follow the national team at the World Cup: the overseas vote, which began this week, set off alarms in De la Espriella's camp, which fears that a sense of early victory could demobilize its voters.

In Cepeda's campaign there is no triumphalism, but rather a bet on growth they still consider possible. The senator reinforced his digital strategy —with a presence on TikTok and the backing of students, artists and social movements— and sought to attract the rural, young and abstaining vote, as well as the centrist electorate that rejects De la Espriella. Cepeda distanced himself from President Petro: he recognized the first-round results, something the president has not yet done, and got him to suspend a signature drive for a Constituent Assembly that worried undecided voters.

De la Espriella, for his part, ran a campaign of careful logistics and clear social-media messaging, kept the use of the national-team jersey after several legal battles, and bolstered his international support, which includes public endorsements from Donald Trump and Argentina's Javier Milei. Three days before the vote, the high-tension climate —with cross-accusations of vote-buying and fraud warnings— reflects that both campaigns consider the election open. The new president will take office on August 7.