MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Two months from the vote, Lula turns diplomatic crises into a sovereignty message

Lula links that pressure to the former president's family

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva enters the final stretch toward the October 4 elections with three open diplomatic fronts and a message centered on defending national sovereignty.

The most serious comes from Washington. This week, Donald Trump's administration revoked the Brazilian ambassador's visa, citing Brasília's delay in granting approval to its own ambassadorial nominee. Lula called the measure irresponsible and unthinkable between two countries with more than two centuries of diplomatic relations, and said Brazil wants to be treated with respect. Itamaraty described it as part of a deliberate escalation and attributed to Washington an interest in interfering in the election.

Days earlier, Brazil had denied visas to two State Department envoys. The Brazilian government says they intended to join a disinformation strategy aimed at questioning the reliability of the electoral system; Washington says they sought to visit the country ahead of the vote. Neither account has been substantiated. Brasília also fears a large-scale false news campaign on social media, compounded by the use of artificial intelligence.

The episode adds to the trade dispute. The United States imposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods citing unfair competition, among other grounds the development of the Pix payment system, which is cutting into US companies' earnings, and Brazilian efforts to regulate large technology firms. A further 12.5% duty over alleged forced labor followed, which the Brazilian government also rejected. A year ago, Washington imposed 50% tariffs during the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, later sentenced to 27 years for attempting a coup, along with sanctions on the judge who led the proceedings.

Lula links that pressure to the former president's family. He refers to its members as traitors to the homeland for putting personal interests, in his view, ahead of the country's economy. Former lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro lives in the United States and has spent more than a year pressing for sanctions against Brazil.

“US interference ends up benefiting Lula, especially if the government manages to pin on Flávio Bolsonaro the responsibility he bore in that process,” said Leonardo Paz Neves, a researcher at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation. That is the analyst's reading; the most recent Datafolha poll gave Lula a five-point lead over the senator in a potential runoff.

The second front is Argentina. After Javier Milei's insults in São Paulo, Brazil downgraded relations to chargé d'affaires level and postponed its ambassador's return.

The third, less visible, is Paraguay. Asunción summoned Brazilian Ambassador José Antonio Marcondes de Carvalho and handed him a protest note over Lula's remarks on the War of the Triple Alliance. Paraguay's foreign minister said the two presidents spoke by phone; CNN Brasil reported that Brazilian government figures deny any such conversation. The 1864-1870 conflict had devastating demographic and economic consequences for Paraguay, though estimates of its scale vary widely.

Lula has increased his references to defense in recent days, arguing that the armed forces must be prepared so that no one interferes in the country.