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Burnham's Labour edges ahead of Reform UK in a YouGov poll for the first time

The survey, conducted on August 9 and 10 among 2,417 respondents, puts Labour on 24%, two points higher than in the August 3 poll, while Reform UK falls one point to 22%

The Labour Party of British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has moved ahead of Reform UK, the right-wing party led by Nigel Farage, in a voting intention survey by YouGov published on Tuesday by The Times. It is the first time this has happened in that pollster's series since Reform took the lead in early 2025.

The survey, conducted on August 9 and 10 among 2,417 respondents, puts Labour on 24%, two points higher than in the August 3 poll, while Reform UK falls one point to 22%. The two-point gap sits at the edge of the sample's margin of error, so the change of position is not statistically conclusive.

Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party, the main opposition force, rises two points to 21%. The Greens fall one point to 12% and the Liberal Democrats one point to 11%. All five parties are above the 10% threshold, a structural feature of the current British political landscape.

YouGov's recent sequence shows a less linear movement than the latest figure suggests. In Burnham's first week in Downing Street, Labour and Reform were tied on 22%; in the August 3 poll, Reform regained the lead with 23% against Labour's 22%. An earlier More in Common survey had already placed Labour ahead, on 28% against 24%.

Burnham took office on July 20, replacing Keir Starmer, who announced his resignation in June after his party's results in the May local and regional elections, in which Reform UK made significant gains. The new prime minister devoted his early weeks to cost-of-living measures, including a cut to VAT on energy bills.

YouGov's head of elections and political data, Patrick English, qualified the scale of the improvement. He noted that Burnham leads the favourability ratings among the leaders being measured, but that voters still believe the government is not addressing their concerns over the cost of living and immigration, and will want to see tangible improvements before rewarding Labour at the ballot box.

The poll appears two days before the Clacton by-election in southeast England, where Farage is seeking to win back the seat he vacated in July to trigger the vote. His resignation came amid an investigation by the parliamentary standards commissioner into an alleged undeclared gift of five million pounds, on which no findings have been reached. The next general election must be held by August 2029 at the latest.