MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Nine days from the vote, neither Brazilian front-runner comes close to 50%

The survey was conducted on Tuesday 22 and Wednesday 23 among 2,002 voters in 125 municipalities, with a margin of error of two percentage points

Neither of Brazil's two leading presidential candidates is approaching the threshold needed to win outright on October 4, according to the latest Datafolha poll, which puts President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 40% of voting intentions and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on 36%.

The survey was conducted on Tuesday 22 and Wednesday 23 among 2,002 voters in 125 municipalities, with a margin of error of two percentage points. It was commissioned by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo, and is registered with the electoral authorities under code BR-00304/2026. The field is completed by Augusto Cury on 5%, Ronaldo Caiado on 4%, Renan Santos on 3%, and Romeu Zema and Samara on 1% each. Blank or spoiled ballots account for 5% and undecided voters for 2%.

In a prospective October 25 runoff, Lula takes 47% and Bolsonaro 45%, a statistical tie. The previous week's readings were 39% and 36% in the first round, and 46% to 44% in the second, placing the shift within the margin. Folha stresses that this is a snapshot rather than a prediction.

The most significant finding is that Bolsonaro has interrupted a run that over four months had narrowed the gap from ten points to three; it is now back to four. In the unprompted question, without names presented, Lula records 36% and Bolsonaro 27%. Some 80% of voters say their choice is settled, and among those who identify with neither camp, 35% say they could still change their minds. Against the other candidates, Lula is also tied with Cury, 46% to 43%, and beats Caiado 46% to 42%, and both Zema and Renan Santos 48% to 39%.

By segment, Lula leads Bolsonaro among the poorest 50%, 46% to 32%, among the least educated 29%, 49% to 29%, and in the Northeast, the country's second largest electorate with 28% of voters, where he records 55% to 25%. Bolsonaro leads among evangelicals, 47% to 27%; among those earning two to five minimum wages, 40% to 34%; and in the South, 47% to 27%. In the Southeast, the most populous region with 42% of the sample, he holds a numerical advantage within a statistical tie, 37% to 35%. According to Folha, Lula's challenge is mobilising an electorate that tends to show higher abstention.

The poll also captured the week's political developments. The 15% increase in the Bolsa Família benefit, announced by Lula less than three weeks before the vote, did not shift the vote among recipients: the president moved from 52% to 53% and his rival from 28% to 27%. Bolsonaro accused him of trying to “buy the poor” with the measure.

The external factor returned to the centre of the campaign. The United States and fourteen countries announced in New York on Wednesday, after a meeting of the Americas Shield, their intention to take coordinated measures against 24 transnational criminal organisations, including the Brazilian factions First Capital Command and Comando Vermelho, involving asset freezes and immigration restrictions. Brazil is outside the mechanism. Washington designated both as terrorist organisations in May, a classification Lula's government rejects on the grounds that it could open the door to US military intervention on Brazilian territory, while Bolsonaro backed it after meeting Trump that same month. The senator accused the president of leniency towards organised crime; Lula had criticised foreign interference in electoral processes before the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, without naming Trump.