MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Lula widens his first-round lead to five points, but the runoff remains tied

The survey, commissioned by the newspaper O Globo and TV Globo, was carried out from Thursday to Sunday with 2,400 interviews nationwide and a margin of error of two percentage points

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has widened his lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro to five points in voting intentions for Sunday's first round, according to a Quaest poll released on Monday, though the two remain tied in a prospective October 25 runoff.

The survey, commissioned by the newspaper O Globo and TV Globo, was carried out from Thursday to Sunday with 2,400 interviews nationwide and a margin of error of two percentage points. Lula takes 39%, two points higher than in the previous round, and Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, 34%, up one. The field is completed by Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado on 4% each, Renan Santos on 3% and Romeu Zema on 1%. Undecided voters account for 5%, and 10% say they will vote blank, spoil their ballot or abstain.

In a second round, the poll shows a 42% tie, with Lula up one point on the previous week and his rival unchanged. Some 49% of respondents disapprove of the government's performance and 46% approve.

A second survey, by Nexus for the bank BTG Pactual, conducted from Friday to Sunday, puts Lula on 42% and Bolsonaro on 37% when respondents are shown the list of candidates, with the president up two points and the senator unchanged. In a prospective runoff, Lula takes 46% to 44%, within the margin of error.

Both surveys confirm the trend of those published in previous weeks: neither candidate is close to the 50% plus one of valid votes needed to settle the election in the first round.

The polls were released after Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394 on Friday, banning nationwide the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of online sports betting and casinos, including licences granted by state governments. The measure took effect on publication, but Congress must ratify it within 120 days. It marks a reversal from the law the government itself enacted in December 2023 to regulate the sector, in which 85 companies operate legally. Lula described the phenomenon as “a public health problem”. Bolsonaro called the measure electoral, and industry associations asked the Supreme Federal Court to suspend it. According to Quaest, 62% of Brazilians support the ban.

On Sunday, October 4, Brazilian voters will elect the president, all 27 state governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two thirds of the Senate.