MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Virtual tie in Argentine.

The three leading Peronist candidates for the coming April 27 Argentine presidential election are virtually tied, with former president Carlos Menem showing a slight advantage according to the latest opinion poll published in Buenos Aires.

Mr. Menem leads with 17,3%, followed closely just one tenth of a point behind by Santa Cruz governor Nestor Kirchner and former president Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, tied in 17,2%. However political consultant Julio Aurelio responsible for the poll published in La Nación indicates that given the plus/minus 2,3% margin of error, the true outcome of the election remains uncertain.

"The only thing certain at this stage is a run off or second round between the two most voted candidates", explained Julio Aurelio.

Close behind the three Peronist candidates comes left wing hopeful Elisa Carrió with 14,3%; former Economy Minister Ricardo López Murphy with 9,3% and far distant the official Radical Party candidate that figures with an insignificant 1,4%. Those who remain undecided total 7,7% and those who will vote blank or annul their ballot 10,3%. The opinion poll interviewed 1,866 people in the main cities and regions of Argentina and was done between February 14/16. The same poll from the previous week showed Mr. Kirchner ahead with 17,6% followed by Mr. Menem with 16,3%.

Mr. Kirchner loss of the leading position can be explained by his closeness with ruling caretaker president Eduardo Duhalde and the ever present mistrust of the Argentine electorate towards politics in general and political pacts in particular. Commenting on the political Argentine situation former Uruguayan president Julio María Sanguinetti, considered an expert in Argentine affairs, said that "any governance hypothesis in the current scenario is open to doubts".

Mr. Sanguinetti who was participating in a political forum on democracy with the participation of former elected Latinamerican presidents held in Madrid, Spain, added that the "political concern about the future of Argentina is real. Not so much in the economic and financial areas where things are beginning to pick up".

"The Argentine political situation is complex because there are six presidential candidates, three from the Radical party and three from the Justicialista party, and this is the consequence of the fragmentation of the country's two traditional parties", explained Mr. Sanguinetti, who included former Radicals Ms. Carrió and Mr. López Murphy in the splintered party of former presidents Raúl Alfonsín and Fernando de la Rúa.

Mr. Sanguinetti also warned about the fragility of democracy in Latinamerica and the growing gap between expectations and the possibility of governments to deliver.

"We have a regional map with legitimate (elected) democracies, but which are then exposed to the legitimacy of their management and response to citizens demands", underlined Mr. Sanguinetti.