MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Justicialistas, but still undecided

With just two weeks for the April 27 Argentine general election, no presidential candidate has a clear lead confirming what analysts describe as a mix of weariness, indifference and even rejection of the Argentine electorate towards the political system.

However all three candidates from the ruling but fragmented Justicialista party figure among those with the greatest vote intention beginning with governor Nestor Kirchner with 20,5%, followed by former president Carlos Menem with 17% and former governor Adolfo Rodríguez Sáa 16%.

According to the latest poll published this Sunday in La Nación, behind the Justicialista party candidates stands Ms. Elisa Carrió with 13,1% and Ricardo López Murphy with 10%.

Analyst Enrique Zuleta Puceiro, whose consulting firm Opinión Pública, Servicios y Mercados, OPSM, was responsible for the poll, believes that given the proximity of voting day and the scarce difference between these five candidates "any two of them could make it to the run off in May". But the poll also brought to the limelight some interesting replies.

For example when asked which candidate they would never vote "under no circumstance", 53% said Mr. Menem; 16% Ms. Carrió; 6,6% López Murphy while rejection for Mr. Kirchner and Mr. Rodríguez Sáa was insignificant. Nevertheless when asked who they believed would be Argentina's next president, 34,8% mentioned Mr. Menem, although quiet a drop from the 51% of the March poll. Second was Mr. Kirchner with 29% followed by Mr. Rodríguez Sáa with 8,5%.

When interviewed about the political party "they would never vote", 26,3% mentioned the Radical party of former presidents Raúl Alfonsín and Fernando de la Rúa. Justicialista party rejection stood at 21%. As to personal conditions, the three candidates of the ruling Justicialista party were the most criticised: Honesty: 73,8% believe Mr. Menem is not at all honest; 30% replied Mr. Kirchner is not very honest, and 29,8% a "bit" honest; Mr. Rodríguez Sáa not at all honest 40%, and a "bit" honest 30%. Social sensitivity: Mr. Menem has none at all according to 74,5% of those interviewed; similarly 47% feel the same about Mr. Rodríguez Sáa while Mr. Kirchner has "some" social sensibility for 41% of those interviewed.

Ruling capacity: 55,2% believe Mr. Menem has no capacity; 20% "some" and 14% "not much"; 60% believe Mr. Kirchner has "some and not much", while for Mr. Rodríguez Sáa the score is even at 30% between no capacity and some capacity. Democratic commitment: 56,6% deny Mr. Menem this condition while 11,4% believe he's a dedicated democrat; Kirchner is split among 32,6% who consider he has some commitment and 27% who replied "just a little"; for Mr. Rodríguez Sáa his commitment was in thirds, 26,6% none, 25,6% some and just a little 24,9%.

Another suggestive piece of information is that 36,6% of those interviewed believe there are "great chances" of some kind of electoral fraud while for 28% there will be "some fraudulent" actions.

The OPSM opinion poll interviewed 1,100 people in 65 different locations of Argentina including the main populated areas with a plus/minus error of 2,95%. It was done between April 1 and April 3.