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Kirchner-Duhalde seem unbeatable.

Sunday, September 14th 2003 - 21:00 UTC
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After successfully reaching a rescheduling agreement with the IMF, --with less strings than anticipated--, Argentine president Nestor Kirchner spent Sunday following electoral results in five districts and with his mind set in building a strong Congressional support for his administration.

Actually half the Argentine electorate went to the polls this Sunday to vote in the Buenos Aires city run off and in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Chaco, Jujuy and Santa Cruz. Particularly decisive are the Argentine capital and the province of Buenos Aires, the country's main district and essential to effectively rule from Casa Rosada.

In the Buenos Aires city runoff Mr. Kirchner openly supported and even campaigned for the current mayor Aníbal Ibarra, a left wing former prosecutor who does not belong to the ruling party and is running for re-election. Opinion polls show him tied with Mauricio Macri a powerful businessman who also happens to be president of Argentina's most popular football team Boca Juniors, and who entered the political arena with the blessing of former president Carlos Menem, anathema for Mr. Kirchner. Mr. Macri is not an active member of the ruling Justicialista party, but since Buenos Aires city has traditionally been a bastion of anti Peronism "independent" candidates are the favourites.

The opposite happens in the province of Buenos Aires where besides most local authorities, the governorship and 35 federal Deputies are at stake. The province is an undisputed stronghold of Peronism and whoever controls the province usually leads the Justicialista party and grants "governance" to whoever sits in Casa Rosada.

Former president Eduardo Duhalde as the province's strongman supported Mr. Menem's two consecutive mandates (1989-1999) including a constitutional reform, in 2001/2002 helped solve the institutional crisis and this year converted a relatively unknown Patagonia province governor Mr. Kirchner in president of Argentina.

Current governor Felipe Solá is expected to comfortably win a second mandate and to be in line as an alternative candidate for the Argentine presidency in 2007. Mr. Duhalde who as leader of the Justicialista party yields undisputed influence is expecting to take up to 23/25 of the 35 Buenos Aires province seats which would help him ensure a powerful block of 40 Deputies in Congress, almost a third of the 129 needed to establish a majority. To make things very clear, Mrs. Chiche Duhalde heads the list of Deputy candidates.

When the current round of provincial and congressional districts elections are over, as of next December the ruling party should have attained a comfortable majority in the Argentine Congress, particularly if Buenos Aires proves another overwhelming Justicilista victory, as happened in three other main districts, Cordoba, Santa Fe and Tucumán.

In the northeast province of Chaco, the opposition Alianza is expected to remain in office and take two of the three Deputy seats that are being disputed.

In the northwest province of Jujuy next to the Bolivian border, the ruling Justicialista party according to opinion polls will retain the governorship and two of the three Deputy seats.

Finally Santa Cruz with an electorate of 130,000 is Mr. Kirchner's home turf. The incoming governor (head of SIDE, Argentina's Intelligence Service) and two Deputies are of utmost presidential loyalty and the outgoing governor who replaced Mr. Kirchner when he ran for president, has been promised a job in Buenos Aires.

This Monday President Kirchner and strongman Mr. Duhalde should feel satisfied with what they have achieved. Only time will tell if this dual-venture will endure the strains of a rough going.

Categories: Mercosur.

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