The European Central Bank, ECB, left Eurozone interest rates unchanged at a record low 2% and anticipated stronger economic growth in spite of oil prices.
ECB president Jean Claude Trichet said the bank expects the eurozone to expand between 1,6 and 2,2% (2,4/2%) this year and between 1,8 and 2,8% (1,7/2,7%) in 2005.
In spite of oil prices having ballooned 30% in the last few months Mr. Trichet said the ECB expects the recovery to continue and become more broadly based over the coming quarters.
But Mr. Trichet did anticipate that oil prices could have an impact on consumer prices which are now estimated to reach between 2,1 and 2,2%.
If assessing oil prices risks "it should be taken into account that, when expressed in euro, the recent rise in oil prices has been significantly smaller than in previous episodes when oil price increases had a major impact on the world economy. In addition, in real terms, oil prices are significantly below the peaks they have reached in the past.
Moreover, when compared with the 1970s and 1980s, the oil intensity of production in the euro area and elsewhere has fallen significantly. Finally, it should be kept in mind that, in contrast to previous periods of oil price turmoil, this year's rise in oil prices is not only due to supply-side factors, but is also driven by the strong global expansion.
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