MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Avian influenza pandemic could cost 800 billion

A pandemic of avian influenza among humans could cost the global economy 800 billion US dollars a year. That's the assessment of Milan Brahmbhatt, a senior economist with the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region.

Speaking at an international conference in Geneva, Brahmbhatt said there were great uncertainties about the timing, virulence and general scope of a future human flu pandemic.

However he said based on the experience of SARS in East Asia, an avian flu pandemic among humans could cause a two percent loss of global gross domestic product (GDP) - representing around 800 billion US dollars over a whole year.

"To get a very broad idea of the kinds of economic costs that might arise, one can note that the disruptions associated with SARS led to an immediate economic loss of perhaps two percent of East Asian regional GDP in the second quarter of 2003," Brahmbhatt said.

"Note that a two percent loss of global GDP during a global influenza pandemic would represent around 800 billion over a whole year.

"And it is fair to assume the immediate shock during a flu epidemic could be even larger and last longer than SARS."

Brahmbhatt said aside from the immediate costs of disruption, a serious global flu pandemic could also entail a "sizeable loss of potential world output through a reduction in the size and productivity of the world labor force due to illness and death." And he said there'd also be costs of hospitalization and medical treatment.

Brahmbhatt cited a 1999 study in the United States which calculated - based on disease patterns of post World War Two pandemics -- that a new flu pandemic could lead to between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the US; more than 700,000 hospitalizations; up to 40 million outpatient visits and 50 million additional illness. "The present value of the economic losses associated with this level of death and sickness was estimated at between 100 and 200 billion for the US in 2004 dollar terms," he said.

"If we extrapolate from the US to all high income countries, there could be a present value loss of 550 billion US dollars". Brahmbhatt said overall the loss for the world would be significantly larger, because of the impact in the developing world, where the health systems are weaker and mortality could be much higher.