MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

“Humala factor” scares Peruvian business and politicians

A controversial retired military officer who irrupted in the Peruvian presidential race only four months ago with a strong nationalist message and as a declared admirer of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez for the first time is leading in public opinion polls.

According to a poll published in Lima's leading newspaper El Comercio, Humala has a 21,7% support ahead of Conservative candidate Lourdes Flores with 21,2% and who just a few weeks ago was leading comfortably. Former presidents Alan García and Valentin Paniagua figure with 19,8% and 16,7%.

Lima's stock exchange, one of the most dynamic in South America in the last two years, was the first to register the fears that Mr. Humala and his Peruvian Nationalist Party generate among investors and the business sector.

The level of transactions has been sliding in December accumulating a loss of 14% because of what the Lima press describes as the "Humala factor".

What most surprises political analysts is that Mr. Humalla was virtually non existent in public opinion polls of last August and September but has since then began a steady ascent overtaking Ms Flores who was leading comfortably with over 30% of vote intention.

"There's a long road still to next April; I believe what we are seeing is a descent of Lourdes Flores. Besides Humala will quickly disintegrate once people realize he doesn't represent what he preaches", said Mauricio Mulder, a close advisor to Mr. Alan Garcia.

Mr. Humalla shows himself as a rabid nationalist, anti system, anti imperialist who identifies with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

In his speeches he attacks neo-liberalism, globalization and traditional politicians and proposes a review of all contracts with multinationals as part of the "nationalist revolution", however he underlines that confronting United States is a "stupidity".

The current administration of President Alejandro Toledo has warned that reviewing contracts is "suicide" and "fatal" for the Peruvian economy.

In the previous opinion poll early December Ms. Flores was ahead with 25% and Humalla figures with 22%.

Analysts also believe that Evo Morales landslide victory in Bolivia could have reflected in the Peruvian electorate which has a high percentage of indigenous population.

Mr. Humala a former Lieutenant Colonel, 44, became famous in 2000 when he led a failed military rebellion against then president Alberto Fujimori who a few months later fled to Japan and is currently detained in Chile.

The Peruvian government has begun actions to extradite Fujimori who faces several charges of murder, human rights abuse and corruption.