MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

UK by election, anticipation of next year’s main scenario

David Cameron and the Tories lead comfortably.

British Labour and Conservatives are shaping up for a battle to the finish in this week's crunch Norwich North by-election, with each hoping to seize the momentum which will see them through to the general election.

Home Secretary Alan Johnson let slip that he believes the general election is now eight months away - suggesting that he expects an April campaign ahead of polling day on May 6 in 2010.

Thursday's by-election will provide a key indicator of how the parties stand in the race for 10 Downing Street, with David Cameron hoping to snatch a seat that was held by Labour's Ian Gibson by a margin of 5,459 in 2005.

A poll in the News of the World suggested that Tories were set to win the seat, putting Mr Cameron's party on 34% in the constituency, four points clear of Labour on 30%. The Liberal Democrats were on 15% in the ICM poll, narrowly ahead of the Greens on 14% with 7% of the votes predicted to go to other parties.

And two national polls gave comfortable leads of 15 and 17 points to the Tories, with Labour struggling to hold onto second place with a single-point margin over the Lib Dems in one survey.

YouGov in the Sunday Times put the Tories on 42%, Labour on 25% and Lib Dem on 18%, while ComRes in the Independent on Sunday had Conservatives on 38% against Labour's 23% and the Lib Dems' 22%.

All the parties have high-profile events scheduled for the next few days in the hope of maintaining control of the political agenda, though none are directly linked to Norwich North.

Mr Johnson has insisted that Labour has “everything to play for” in the general election expected in the spring.

“Where the Tories are, whether it's the late 30s or early 40s, eight months before a general election, everything is to play for here,” he told BBC1's Andrew Marr Show. “It is game on.”

The 12 candidates for the Norwich North by-election on July 23 are: Peter Baggs (Ind); Thomas Burridge (Libertarian); Anne Fryatt (None of The Above); Bill Holden (Ind); Laud Howling (Monster Raving Loony); Craig Murray (Put An Honest Man into Parliament); Chris Ostrowski (Labour); April Pond (Lib Dem); Rupert Read (Green); Chloe Smith (Tory); Glenn Tingle (UKIP); Robert West (BNP).