China reiterated that an expected vote this week in the US Senate on a bill intended to pressure Beijing to allow its currency to raise if made into law would result in a trade war and hurt US-China ties. Read full article
This is the only way I can see things. During the past 2 years, US-China relations have deteriorated so fast. Moreover, the current scenario is somewhat reminiscent of that of the WW2. The Great Depression (and it seems the world may be entering a Depression soon); mass discontentment; unemployment, mass immigrations pushing people in certain countries to the far right; trade wars; rising authoritarianism throughout the world; a decaying empire trying to regain prominence by means of militarism and ultranationalistic rhetoric (Germany in WW2; perhaps the US in a few years?) against a new power (the US pre-WW2; China today).
Currency war leads to trade war leads to real war (world war 3), god forbids, but if you do your homework you see clearly history is repeating itself. If the US goes to war again, it's the end of them as we knew the US, they know that themself, but they see it as the only way out since they know they cannot pay the trillions of dollars (fake debt) back.
A US attempt to go at war would not only be motivated but a rational desire to improve its economic situation, but also by some irrational feelings of nationalism. When empires decay, the citizenry becomes very vulnerable to nationalistic and right-wing populist rhetoric, which often results in a fair number of extremist politicians ascending to power by means of coups or ballot results. Such politicians try to reverse the trend by means of unilateralism and militarism* - this is, I believe, what Chalmers Johnson called imperial overstretch.
See Nazi Germany; the Great Depression, Germany's geopolitical decay and the humiliation the Allies imposed on it after WW1, preceded Germany's nationalistic shift which culminated in the Nazi Party's ascendence to power. Likewise, the US financial crisis, massive unemployment, geopolitical decay, and the challenge presented by China's rise, have coincided with ultranationalistic rhetoric on the part of many sectors of the US right. When a great power's position in the world is challenged, the citizenry responds by becoming more, not less, nationalistic, in the belief that their position can be retrieved by acting tough and self-confident.
Very nice words,
But if you were talking abt Argentina, you could well be correct.
If you are talking about china’s rise to power, again you may well be correct.
Germany is in the past, and will not be returning to power any time soon.
Ah, the untied states of America,
A most powerful country, and an empire in all but name,
But world domination would be out of the question,
She is a democracy governed by the people, who’s precedents has to ask permission to do most things and can be stopped,
Now America has ambitions, but this is more of dominating all of the Americas, this is not new, we all know of Americas ambitions , but if anything it would be down south, America has no world ambitions, [unless it fell into her lap]
As for conflict with china, this is a possibility, we both know that regional rivalries, with as you say, economic debts or just a good excuse,, so war between china and America is possible, but at this time in history very unlikely
China on the other hand, a fast growing economy that is very vulnerable to inflation and
And is getting very ambitious, investing in anything that moves, that will in turn give her growing power,
Just an opinion old chap, just an opinion .,,
Admittedly my grasp of particular realities are limited; I don't have a detailed as much as an abstract grasp of the world... but I do know that all of current establishment intellectuals' attempts to say that we live in an exception era, to say that what happened in the past doesn't apply to today - to say, like some did in the 80s, that our contemporary world would no longer experience great economic crises, that we live in an era that inexorably marched towards liberal democracy and free market capitalism for all, that these are times of unprecendentedly fast and non-stopping technological development - all these claims of exceptionality proved to be false in a short amount of time. Our era is just like any other. And wars between great powers have existed throughout all of recorded history. I think it's a relatively safe bet that this will continue to be the case for the years to come. I don't really believe our time's material and cultural particularities vis-à-vis the past have changed that much, to say that history will take from now on another form. History is more shaped by men's irrational nature, and our nature, our determined nature, is the same as those of our ancestors'.
There have already been small-scaled face offs between the Chinese and the the US navies in the South China Sea. Nationalism, a common motivator behind wars, is getting heated on both sides, and if they engage in a trade war things will become worse. Perhaps some factors - their economic interdependency, their possession of nuclear weapons - will slow down an outcome such as a full blown war between the US and China. But the trend between their relations is one of deterioration.
By the way, Think, I know that at least one great military scholar, Dr. Martin van Creveld, has embranced the same thesis as ours, that from now on wars will take an intra-national or intra-regional rather than national scale. But this, I believe, is tied to his other thesis that our modern conception of nation-state will deteriorate and eventually disappear. This is yet to be seen. Since the financial crisis, states are regaining their importance as they're being seen as tools to tickle growth when the market falters (the state's importance to guide the economy always increases after an economic crisis).
It’s not your grasp
It’s just a matter of putting the pieces together,
In this case, it’s a million piece jigsaw puzzle,
A wise man once said,
Your past is your future,
And today to get the chance to alter your future,
By learning one’s mistakes from the past, you can alter the future for the better of peace,
Sadly humans have a short memory, and keep forgetting this point, until the next war/massacre.
We humans are only guests here, been here ten minutes, and already we are hell bent
On destroying the whole bloody world,
The below is a string line [represents time] the [dot] is the human race,
We are but a speck in time,
---------------------------------------.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a thought while your drinking your tea/coffee.
,,
I share your feelings, briton. I know it isn't very normal to worry about these things, at least at this point in time when the future seems so blurry, but I feel fearful and oppressed whenever I think of things to come. More and more people - not just anyone, but great minds - are openly saying we may be entering a new world depression (and that brings risks of large-scale wars). It is hard to ignore that.
You may well be correct,
But sadly the rule goes like this.
politicians make war
soldiers fight the war,
Innocents die in the war,
Their is not really much you or I can do about it,
Unless you wont the lottery, built yourself a nuclear bunker, and survive.
But who would be the lucky ones,
They who die, or those who survive, always searching for [water, fresh / and drinkable] [food edible] [air that you can breath],
Perhaps the human race can get into space, and reach out to colonies other planets, so we have a chance of survival,
A rational point or just delusions, , but lets hope we never have to find out,
Even Nobel Peace Prize-laureated Obonzo has threatened to use nuclear weapons in one occasion (I think he was discussing the Iranian issue). France has also come up with something like that in the Chirac years. I think it's silly to expect leaders, even from the “free”, “'human-rights' loving” West, to take political and military decisions based on morality, specially if they're faced with a situation of national danger. After all, when the US used the nuclear bombs on Japan, they weren't even being threatened (they had already won the war on Japan). The best we, Latin Americans, can do is to arm ourselves (and we have the capabilities to do so) and going neutral all the way.
Why do you need to defend with deterrent and innovative weapons?
Who are your enemies, does chi lie / brazil, Argentina, have any enemies, out side of south America,
Please name them,,
”1 Think Sep 23rd, 2011
Good news.............
Let's put those 7 billion to better use.
If it must be military, then let us together (UNASUR) develop a modern and appropiate defensive Swarm Technology based on hyper and supersonic drones and missiles.
That would be the only effective deterrent against the real agressors and pirates of the 21'th century.
We could get a hell of a lot “bees” and “wasps” for that money.”
Why together, why not on your own,
Or does one have a bigger ambition than one state,
Pirates, it would be interesting to see (UNASUR ] troops chasing pirates
on ship, from Africa to the Caribbean, down the Spanish main
all the way back to Argentina
nah, save the money and give it to the poor, improve their standard of living,
Reduce government , interferences, go veggie, and save the world, the only enemies of Argentina is herself, with friends like the British, the skies the limit .??
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesThe prospect of a World War looming ever larger.
Oct 11th, 2011 - 03:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0Now now my good Brazilian lad.......
Oct 11th, 2011 - 06:01 am - Link - Report abuse 0You take it easy now....
Don't depress me :-(
Think! :)
Oct 11th, 2011 - 07:38 am - Link - Report abuse 0This is the only way I can see things. During the past 2 years, US-China relations have deteriorated so fast. Moreover, the current scenario is somewhat reminiscent of that of the WW2. The Great Depression (and it seems the world may be entering a Depression soon); mass discontentment; unemployment, mass immigrations pushing people in certain countries to the far right; trade wars; rising authoritarianism throughout the world; a decaying empire trying to regain prominence by means of militarism and ultranationalistic rhetoric (Germany in WW2; perhaps the US in a few years?) against a new power (the US pre-WW2; China today).
a decaying empire trying to regain prominence by means of militarism
Oct 11th, 2011 - 01:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0American empire ??
china empire ??
interesting, [which one .]
Currency war leads to trade war leads to real war (world war 3), god forbids, but if you do your homework you see clearly history is repeating itself. If the US goes to war again, it's the end of them as we knew the US, they know that themself, but they see it as the only way out since they know they cannot pay the trillions of dollars (fake debt) back.
Oct 11th, 2011 - 06:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0A US attempt to go at war would not only be motivated but a rational desire to improve its economic situation, but also by some irrational feelings of nationalism. When empires decay, the citizenry becomes very vulnerable to nationalistic and right-wing populist rhetoric, which often results in a fair number of extremist politicians ascending to power by means of coups or ballot results. Such politicians try to reverse the trend by means of unilateralism and militarism* - this is, I believe, what Chalmers Johnson called imperial overstretch.
Oct 11th, 2011 - 08:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0See Nazi Germany; the Great Depression, Germany's geopolitical decay and the humiliation the Allies imposed on it after WW1, preceded Germany's nationalistic shift which culminated in the Nazi Party's ascendence to power. Likewise, the US financial crisis, massive unemployment, geopolitical decay, and the challenge presented by China's rise, have coincided with ultranationalistic rhetoric on the part of many sectors of the US right. When a great power's position in the world is challenged, the citizenry responds by becoming more, not less, nationalistic, in the belief that their position can be retrieved by acting tough and self-confident.
(6) Young One
Oct 11th, 2011 - 08:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0All very nice but.............
In my humble opinion, you can not use “pre 1945” history to predict a World War III.
The rules of the game changed radically in 1945.
By proxi military confrontations and armed regional conflicts yes, of course..... but a new World War?
I doubt it.
Very nice words,
Oct 11th, 2011 - 09:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0But if you were talking abt Argentina, you could well be correct.
If you are talking about china’s rise to power, again you may well be correct.
Germany is in the past, and will not be returning to power any time soon.
Ah, the untied states of America,
A most powerful country, and an empire in all but name,
But world domination would be out of the question,
She is a democracy governed by the people, who’s precedents has to ask permission to do most things and can be stopped,
Now America has ambitions, but this is more of dominating all of the Americas, this is not new, we all know of Americas ambitions , but if anything it would be down south, America has no world ambitions, [unless it fell into her lap]
As for conflict with china, this is a possibility, we both know that regional rivalries, with as you say, economic debts or just a good excuse,, so war between china and America is possible, but at this time in history very unlikely
China on the other hand, a fast growing economy that is very vulnerable to inflation and
And is getting very ambitious, investing in anything that moves, that will in turn give her growing power,
Just an opinion old chap, just an opinion .,,
,
Admittedly my grasp of particular realities are limited; I don't have a detailed as much as an abstract grasp of the world... but I do know that all of current establishment intellectuals' attempts to say that we live in an exception era, to say that what happened in the past doesn't apply to today - to say, like some did in the 80s, that our contemporary world would no longer experience great economic crises, that we live in an era that inexorably marched towards liberal democracy and free market capitalism for all, that these are times of unprecendentedly fast and non-stopping technological development - all these claims of exceptionality proved to be false in a short amount of time. Our era is just like any other. And wars between great powers have existed throughout all of recorded history. I think it's a relatively safe bet that this will continue to be the case for the years to come. I don't really believe our time's material and cultural particularities vis-à-vis the past have changed that much, to say that history will take from now on another form. History is more shaped by men's irrational nature, and our nature, our determined nature, is the same as those of our ancestors'.
Oct 11th, 2011 - 09:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0There have already been small-scaled face offs between the Chinese and the the US navies in the South China Sea. Nationalism, a common motivator behind wars, is getting heated on both sides, and if they engage in a trade war things will become worse. Perhaps some factors - their economic interdependency, their possession of nuclear weapons - will slow down an outcome such as a full blown war between the US and China. But the trend between their relations is one of deterioration.
By the way, Think, I know that at least one great military scholar, Dr. Martin van Creveld, has embranced the same thesis as ours, that from now on wars will take an intra-national or intra-regional rather than national scale. But this, I believe, is tied to his other thesis that our modern conception of nation-state will deteriorate and eventually disappear. This is yet to be seen. Since the financial crisis, states are regaining their importance as they're being seen as tools to tickle growth when the market falters (the state's importance to guide the economy always increases after an economic crisis).
Oct 11th, 2011 - 09:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It’s not your grasp
Oct 11th, 2011 - 09:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It’s just a matter of putting the pieces together,
In this case, it’s a million piece jigsaw puzzle,
A wise man once said,
Your past is your future,
And today to get the chance to alter your future,
By learning one’s mistakes from the past, you can alter the future for the better of peace,
Sadly humans have a short memory, and keep forgetting this point, until the next war/massacre.
We humans are only guests here, been here ten minutes, and already we are hell bent
On destroying the whole bloody world,
The below is a string line [represents time] the [dot] is the human race,
We are but a speck in time,
---------------------------------------.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a thought while your drinking your tea/coffee.
,,
I share your feelings, briton. I know it isn't very normal to worry about these things, at least at this point in time when the future seems so blurry, but I feel fearful and oppressed whenever I think of things to come. More and more people - not just anyone, but great minds - are openly saying we may be entering a new world depression (and that brings risks of large-scale wars). It is hard to ignore that.
Oct 11th, 2011 - 09:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You may well be correct,
Oct 11th, 2011 - 10:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0But sadly the rule goes like this.
politicians make war
soldiers fight the war,
Innocents die in the war,
Their is not really much you or I can do about it,
Unless you wont the lottery, built yourself a nuclear bunker, and survive.
But who would be the lucky ones,
They who die, or those who survive, always searching for [water, fresh / and drinkable] [food edible] [air that you can breath],
Perhaps the human race can get into space, and reach out to colonies other planets, so we have a chance of survival,
A rational point or just delusions, , but lets hope we never have to find out,
(9 ) Forgetit 87
Oct 11th, 2011 - 10:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0When mentioning 1945 I was, of course, referring to this…………….
http://kuroiso.org/
No way, we will be that stupid ………………….….again.
Even Nobel Peace Prize-laureated Obonzo has threatened to use nuclear weapons in one occasion (I think he was discussing the Iranian issue). France has also come up with something like that in the Chirac years. I think it's silly to expect leaders, even from the “free”, “'human-rights' loving” West, to take political and military decisions based on morality, specially if they're faced with a situation of national danger. After all, when the US used the nuclear bombs on Japan, they weren't even being threatened (they had already won the war on Japan). The best we, Latin Americans, can do is to arm ourselves (and we have the capabilities to do so) and going neutral all the way.
Oct 11th, 2011 - 10:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I agree:
Oct 11th, 2011 - 11:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The best we, Latin Americans, can do is to arm ourselves (in a effectively deterrent and innovative kind of way) and going neutral all the way.
@16
Oct 12th, 2011 - 04:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“in a effectively deterrent and innovative kind of way......” Please explain, because I definitely don't understand how.
Why do you need to defend with deterrent and innovative weapons?
Oct 12th, 2011 - 07:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Who are your enemies, does chi lie / brazil, Argentina, have any enemies, out side of south America,
Please name them,,
(17) Artillero601
Oct 12th, 2011 - 07:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Explained in a very compressed form.....:
http://en.mercopress.com/2011/09/23/brazil-will-hold-off-plans-for-fighter-jets-purchase-for-another-twelve-months
”1 Think Sep 23rd, 2011
Good news.............
Let's put those 7 billion to better use.
If it must be military, then let us together (UNASUR) develop a modern and appropiate defensive Swarm Technology based on hyper and supersonic drones and missiles.
That would be the only effective deterrent against the real agressors and pirates of the 21'th century.
We could get a hell of a lot “bees” and “wasps” for that money.”
@19
Oct 12th, 2011 - 07:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0what you are proposing is not enough ....
Why together, why not on your own,
Oct 12th, 2011 - 08:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Or does one have a bigger ambition than one state,
Pirates, it would be interesting to see (UNASUR ] troops chasing pirates
on ship, from Africa to the Caribbean, down the Spanish main
all the way back to Argentina
nah, save the money and give it to the poor, improve their standard of living,
Reduce government , interferences, go veggie, and save the world, the only enemies of Argentina is herself, with friends like the British, the skies the limit .??
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