The Brazilian Real fell to a new three-year low after briefly erasing its decline as the central bank sold currency swap contracts for the second time in three trading sessions, holding two auctions on Tuesday. Read full article
I am a Brit living in Uruguay. Apart from my pensions, which are UK based and on which I have to pay UK tax, ALL my money is invested in Uruguay. Am I worried about the UY Pesos floating - NO.
It has done well against the dollar whereas what Brasil are up to is just short-termism. I give you a prediction: the ONLY cars to be exported will be the ones already on the car parks awaiting shipment.
Any member of the public wanting a car is best advised to buy it now - assuming the savings HAVE been passed on to encourage sales. THEN, come the end of August, when prices rise even more than they were, SALES WILL STOP, or fall markedly.
Car companies WILL NOT man up for increased production on the basis of three months of buying the market by the government. They know only too well that the increased cost of manufacturing (due to the increases in imports to make / assemble the cars) will result in the headline cost of sales increasing hence the price rise to the market.
I have been in the car business, it was always thus. I am glad to be retired.
There is another aspect to this and that is the lowered exchange rate will feed an inflationary pulse into the system. Many emerging market countries are going through this exchange rate volatility - but remember that markets can turn on a tickey or whatever small coin denomination you may wish to name.
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesCurrency wars are here again!
May 23rd, 2012 - 10:59 am - Link - Report abuse 0Mr. Market will have the lsat say in this.
May 23rd, 2012 - 01:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0BRIC are winning the currency war. Ben BinladenBernanke has a choice: continue with the battle he's loosing (QE3, QE4 etc etc) or surrender.
May 23rd, 2012 - 08:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The markets: Euro vs Dollar is a battle between two ugly queens.
More worrying news for Mercosur. Uruguay has been letting its currency float freely and now Brazil's monetary and exchange rate policys are making Uruguay's exports uncompetitive. This development comes at the same time fellow Mercosur member Argentina begins impusing high trade barriers.
May 23rd, 2012 - 08:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://uruguaybr.wordpress.com/2012/05/23/brazilian-efforts-to-increase-growth-cause-uruguayan-exports-to-lose-their-competitive-advantage/
4 UruguayBR
May 24th, 2012 - 05:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I am a Brit living in Uruguay. Apart from my pensions, which are UK based and on which I have to pay UK tax, ALL my money is invested in Uruguay. Am I worried about the UY Pesos floating - NO.
It has done well against the dollar whereas what Brasil are up to is just short-termism. I give you a prediction: the ONLY cars to be exported will be the ones already on the car parks awaiting shipment.
Any member of the public wanting a car is best advised to buy it now - assuming the savings HAVE been passed on to encourage sales. THEN, come the end of August, when prices rise even more than they were, SALES WILL STOP, or fall markedly.
Car companies WILL NOT man up for increased production on the basis of three months of buying the market by the government. They know only too well that the increased cost of manufacturing (due to the increases in imports to make / assemble the cars) will result in the headline cost of sales increasing hence the price rise to the market.
I have been in the car business, it was always thus. I am glad to be retired.
There is another aspect to this and that is the lowered exchange rate will feed an inflationary pulse into the system. Many emerging market countries are going through this exchange rate volatility - but remember that markets can turn on a tickey or whatever small coin denomination you may wish to name.
May 25th, 2012 - 03:25 am - Link - Report abuse 0Currency pegs do not work.
6 Ozgood
May 25th, 2012 - 02:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Currency pegs do not work.
Absolutely correct.
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