MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

When oil is involved, compromise is key

Professor Terry Karl

By Terry Karl (*) - The death of Margaret Thatcher will not change the necessity for or the timing of negotiations on the Falklands/Malvinas issue. This political football has re-emerged repeatedly – regardless of the leaders in power – usually for domestic reasons in both Argentina and the United Kingdom. There is little political will for a settlement in the short-term on either side, especially now that offshore oil is publicly and definitively in the picture.

The Argentine and British governments are both using arguments of sovereignty or self-determination as a convenient smokescreen to hide their interest in exploiting hydrocarbons.

When both sovereignty and potential wealth are at stake, personalities alone cannot resolve this issue. Today just as in 1982 when war broke out, both Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and David Cameron had strong domestic reasons to keep the conflict alive.

Argentine appeals for support in both the General Assembly and the United Nations Decolonization Committee have grown increasingly stronger since Britain renewed its gas and oil exploration in the waters surrounding the Islands. British interests in delaying resolution are driven not only by the energy potential of the area and the desire to establish a firm foothold prior to resolution, but also by anger at the Argentine government’s embarrassing charges of colonialism. Yet, not even its closest ally, the United States, is willing to back its territorial claims.

Not surprisingly, during the 30th anniversary of the war -- when Argentines once again charged the Thatcher government with war crimes for the sinking of the General Belgrano -- charges and counter- charges did little to create a climate for negotiations. Instead, positions appear to have hardened, with both governments using arguments of sovereignty or self-determination as a convenient smokescreen to hide their strong interest in exploiting hydrocarbons.

But perpetual conflict is not an ideal long-term scenario for either government. The U.K. and Argentina are bound together by more than 1.5 billion dollars in trade and the enormous challenges of potential off-shore drilling, especially in an area where weather plays such a key factor. As Islanders contemplate the prospects of significant oil wealth, a stable and cooperative investment environment is key to making this a reality. In this respect, a cooperative arrangement would benefit both countries – not to mention the residents of the Islands.

A negotiated compromise that will respect the identity of the Islanders, award territory to Argentina and permit British participation in oil exploitation almost certainly lies in the future.

(*) Terry Karl is a professor of Latin American studies and political science at Stanford University. She is also the author of “The Paradox of Plenty” and the co-author of “Oil Wars”.