MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Tight race for President Cristina Fernandez candidate in Buenos Aires province

CFK vigorously campaigning for her chosen Buenos Aires province candidate Insaurralde

Next Sunday the Argentine electorate will be participating in the different parties’ primaries ahead of the mid term October ballot, which could signal the beginning of the end of the Kirchner decade. The event is identified as PASO, open, simultaneous and mandatory primaries.

Two districts are key, the City and the province of Buenos Aires, because recent history shows that no national victory is possible without carrying the province and its 35% of the electorate, and in the capital, although traditionally in opposition and contrary to the hegemonic Peronist movement, the degree of the defeat is a powerful signal.

However at this stage only surveys can give an idea of the situation or rather tendencies, because there is a strong subjectivity component involved in most Argentine public opinion surveys that are published by pollsters.

A poll carried out by Management & Fit consultancy shows Renewal Front candidate Sergio Massa, the great Peronist dissident and contender in the province of Buenos Aires with 33.8% of vote intention, well ahead of President Cristina Fernandez Victory Front candidate Martin Insaurralde with 28.3%.

The Argentine president has been vigorously campaigning for Insaurralde with no consideration at all to electoral law limitations or sacred icons such as Pope Francis. In effect during the recent visit to Brazil she managed a picture of her with the Pope and Insaurralde that has been posted all over Buenos Aires.

Another survey from Federico Gonzales and Cecilia Valladares Consultants has similar percentages but concluding that Inausrralde (31.7%) is narrowing the gap with Massa (34.9%) only three points ahead, which in the business is described as a ‘technical tie’.

Enrique Zuleta Puceiro talks about a ‘tied scenario’ with dissident Massa holding a two points difference over Insaurralde.

Summing up the two candidates have over 60% of vote intention in Buenos Aires province that has been a long-standing Peronist stronghold and which offers little margin for other parties that also includes other dissident or dissatisfied Peronists.

Meanwhile in Buenos Aires City the ruling PRO party of Conservative city Mayor Mauricio Macri leads comfortably with its Senate and Lower House candidates.

PRO’s ticket for the Senate, led by current lawmaker Gabriela Michetti, is winning 34.3% of the vote, well ahead of Kirchnerite candidate Daniel Filmus, who holds 22.2%, and the best-positioned candidate of the UNEN front Fernando “Pino” Solanas, who gets just 10.1% of the vote, according to pollster Poliarquía.

In the battle to enter the Lower House, PRO lawmaker candidate Sergio Bergman still leads the preferences. But the Victory Front’s bet for Congress, Juan Cabandié, moved up to second place, beating UNEN firebrand lawmaker Elisa Carrió.

But in other polls such as that from Analia del Franco and published by government finance newspaper Página/12, Ms Michetti gets only 28% of the votes, seven points ahead of Kirchnerite candidate Daniel Filmus.

Nevertheless whatever the primaries’ results on Sunday, next October half the Lower House and a third of the Senate seats will be in dispute and President Cristina Fernandez needs to ensure a working majority in the Legislative.

If not her last two years in office could be particularly exhausting and humiliating as she loses power and her chances of influencing the nomination of a successor equally challenging.

On the other hand recent events indicate that in the previous 2009 mid term elections and following a major defeat in the struggle with farmers over export taxes, the Cristina Fernandez administration barely managed to survive in Congress.

But she proved sufficiently intelligent and effective in keeping the opposition divided to the extent that only two years later, in 2011 was re-elected with 54% of ballots cast and 35 percentage points ahead of the runner up, an electoral record for Argentina.

Yes, it was achieved by virtually printing money to hold utility rates and fuel prices frozen, financing massive subsidies, generous salary increases and ample funds for provincial leaders, using all of government resources available to ensure victory.

But it is also true that now the international and domestic economic scenarios are changing rapidly and there is no more latitude to keep expenditure at such exaggerated levels, at least at the rate in the months leading to October 2009, but for Cristina Fernandez ignoring economics orthodoxy (and future costs) seems to be the only path.