MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Does Cristina Fernandez have time to combat the scourges of insecurity and inflation?

Rampant crime and insecurity are expected to cost dearly in ballots

In 2006 a year before Cristina Fernandez took office as president for the first time, Argentine public opinion was concerned with unemployment (25%) and insecurity (25%) while corruption stood at 5% and inflation 1%. However seven years later insecurity and inflation are paramount with 34% and 13%, corruption 8% and employment concern is down to 7%.

This somehow helps to explain the poor performance of Cristina Fernandez’ candidates in last August primaries and does not augur positively for the October mid term election.

What seems extraordinary is that corruption, following so many claims and exposure of cases involving Cristina Fernandez, her deceased husband Nestor Kirchner and their closest aides has yet to climb to a higher position.

However Argentine analysts and pollsters have a theory as to how the perception of corruption impacts on public opinion. There seems to be a co-relation between the evolution of illicit claims and consumption, and this is supported by the opinion polls. In effect when consumer confidence falls or plummets, concerns with corruption rapidly climb, and inversely when consumer confidence is going up, corruption concerns drop.

Thus when the recession of 2008/09, an overwhelming 60% of Argentines believed corruption was worsening, and two years later as the economy picked up it was down to 45%.   

Social research confirms that there seems to be an ‘implicit contract’ of the Argentine people with their leaders which metaphorically says something like this: you give us jobs and consumption, and we tolerate your ‘dirty’ deals, but if benefits cease we will listen to those who expose you. In other words political leaders are acknowledged a certain prerogative and transgression as long as they ensure protection and modest progress.

This is even more evident regarding the level of education: the less education the firmer the contract stands. In effect this refers to a feeling of lack of protection, resentment, perception that the powerful are only interested in their big table and ignore people’s sufferings.

But for mid October elections the ongoing scourges of inflation and insecurity will certainly have a negative impact on Cristina Fernandez’ administration and her last two years in office.