MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil hikes soybean harvest estimate by 5.3m to 95.8 million tons

Total plantings were estimated at 31.7m hectares, some 370,000 hectares above the mid-point of the range that Conab had estimated

Brazil's commodities bureau, Conab hiked by 5.3 million tons to 95.8 million tons its forecast for the country's soybean crop, reversing the negative trend in harvest forecasts, citing the benefit from rains in some southern areas. The previous estimate for the crop to be harvested early next year was 90.5m tons.

 The forecast, representing a 9.6m tons increase in output year on year, reflected in part an upgraded estimate for sowings in many areas, with total plantings estimated at 31.7m hectares, some 370,000 hectares above the mid-point of the range that Conab had guided too.

However, the main boost was from improved yield estimates for the southern states of Parana - the second-biggest soybean producing state after Mato Grosso – and in third-ranked Rio Grande do Sul.

In the south of Brazil, weather conditions have been “favorable for crops”, with forecasts showing the potential for “stable volumes of rainfall, essential for good plant growth, especially for the cultivation of soybeans in the highlands” Conab said.

In Rio Grande do Sul, where the bureau forecast the soybean yield hitting 2.68 tons per hectare this time, up from a forecast last month of a 2.31 tons-per-hectare result, crops were, despite rain delays to sowings, showing “normal development”.

This “leads to positive expectations for achieving good yields”, Conab said.

For Parana, the yield estimate was raised to 3.30 tons per hectare from 2.91 tons per hectare, despite low rains from August to mid-October “causing late planting of several summer crops in the state”.

The Parana agricultural department, Deral, rates 85% of the state's soybean crop as being in “good” condition, although this figure is only 60% in the northern area of Ivaipora, where rainfall has been less generous.

The Conab forecast came hours before the US Department of Agriculture, whose estimates set word benchmarks, kept its own forecast for Brazil's crop at 94m tons, although many forecasters had expected a downgrade to the Brazil soybean forecast, given the delays to plantings.

Commentators including Oil World and Michael Cordonnier, the respected crop scout, have reduced estimates for Brazil's 2014-15 soybean output.