MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

'Impeachment' and 'fresh elections' in Brazil's congressional debate

”With only one digit of approval, abandoned by the ruling Workers Party and by Lula who now can't stand her, Dilma will be forced to ask for the 'bill'.

Brazil's leading political commentator and O Globo columnist, Ricardo Noblat is forecasting that president Dilma Rousseff will not conclude her four-year mandate and could very well be out of office by next October.

 In the column under the heading “A government waiting for the end”, Noblat explains the different roles played by opposition leader Aecio Neves and Lula da Silva, her political mentor but who together with the ruling Workers' Party is now strongly criticizing the current administration.

Follows a translation of the piece.

“A government waiting for the end”

The only thing missing are the street protests, but those who are betting on the impeachment of Dilma are already assessing rumors, making their calculations and exchanging ideas referred to what would be the major event in Brazil at the beginning of the XXI century.

Not every day a president of the Republic is ousted based on the rule of the law. In Brazil there's only one case: Fernando Collor de Melo. Brute force ousted all the other presidents.

Those most in a hurry believe that probably September won't end without Dilma leaving office, be it in good or bad terms. In good terms would mean resignation to Brazil's highest office.

With only one digit of approval, abandoned by the ruling Workers Party who detest her and by Lula da Silva who now can't stand her, Dilma will be forced to ask for the 'bill'.

It's not worth thinking that a former guerrilla, having proven she suffered the torments and pains of torture would be capable of beating off in retreat.

On agreeing to succeed Lula da Silva, Dilma prepared to command a project made up of a grouping of left wing forces that had never made it to office.

Evidence of this was when President Joao Goulart replaced Janio Quadros. Since then it became the greatest gap in exercising office. That is why Lula's attitude, and because of him, of the rest.

The forced exit of Dilma would be through a judicial initiative of the several fronts where she faces serious problems.

The country's Accounts Comptroller, for example is threatening to reject Dilma government's accounts balance of last year.

The Superior Electoral Tribunal will then argue that Dilma abused economic and financial power to be re-elected.

It will depend on the Federal Supreme Tribunal (Supreme Court) to judge Dilma on any issue that could link her to the Operation Lava Jato, the largest ever corruption investigation in Brazilian history (Petrobras scandal).

Whoever anticipates what is going to happen in misinformed, but no one wants to be taken by surprise. In Congress support for the government has collapsed.

The hostile attitude towards Finance minister Joaquim Levy, the brains behind the current fiscal tightening, keeps growing in the inner circle of Dilma's ministers and advisors.

To sabotage him, Michel Temer, vice-president of the Republic, flirts with resigning as political coordinator of Dilma's government.

The different political parties are assessing possibilities of how to head out the day after Dilma's downfall.

For the PSDB (Social Democrat Brazilian Party) and its leader Aecio Neves (whom Dilma just defeated last October in the runoff), the best scenario would be a double impeachment, Dilma and Temer, and fresh elections' call in ninety days.

In the meantime, Eduardo Cunha, head of the Lower House would be care-taker president. Aecio and Eduardo have been talking quite a bit about this.

However Senator Jose Serra and Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin, both from PSDB would prefer an impeachment of Dilma, and Temer taking office. He would then rule until 2018, when one of the two would succeed him.

With the discretion such matters demand, magistrates and Justices are feeling the water temperature among colleagues and measuring the intensity of pressure they are receiving.

But in this power struggle puzzle a piece remains somehow confusing. And his name is Lula da Silva.

Only twenty days ago, Lula sent a strong volley against Dilma, her government and the Workers Party claiming that they had become 'dead wood'. But Lula back stepped when he became aware that Dilma was prepared to expose him to the questionings of Justice Sergio Moro, who is leading the Petrobras investigation.

Lula da Silva admits there's no way out for Dilma. And if she disappears soon, so better for him and the Workers Party.

In that case Lula and the Workers Party would put on the war paint and return to being opposition. Until 2018 they would have time to rebuild a left wing groupings' front what would support Lula's presidential candidacy. Or some other candidate.

And this situation because Lula da Silva lacks the courage to dispute a divided ball.