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Lula da Silva seems to have lost his invincible electoral allure, opinion polls show

Friday, August 28th 2015 - 05:32 UTC
Full article 9 comments
In the event of a presidential dispute, Lula da Silva would be beaten by Aecio Neves in the runoff by 50% to 31%. In the event of a presidential dispute, Lula da Silva would be beaten by Aecio Neves in the runoff by 50% to 31%.
Sao Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin is ahead with 41% against 37% for the former union leader. Last June a similar poll showed the two were even. Sao Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin is ahead with 41% against 37% for the former union leader. Last June a similar poll showed the two were even.
Senator Jose Serra would defeat Lula da Silva 43% to 36%. Serra lost in 2002 to Lula da Silva and again in 2010 against Dilma Rousseff, both in the runoffs. Senator Jose Serra would defeat Lula da Silva 43% to 36%. Serra lost in 2002 to Lula da Silva and again in 2010 against Dilma Rousseff, both in the runoffs.

Former Brazilian president Lula da Silva, if he decided to run again in 2018 as his Workers Party insists, would lose the presidential contest against any of three potential candidates from the leading opposition party, PSDB, (Brazilian Social Democracy) according to a public opinion poll released this week.

 A survey from Ibope, Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Stats, released by O Estado de Sao Paulo, points out that in the event of a presidential dispute, Lula da Silva would be beaten by Aecio Neves in the runoff by 50% to 31%.

In the previous poll last June, Lula da Silva had 33% support and Neves who lost by a minimum margin the runoff with president Dilma Rousseff last October, registered 48%.

With Sao Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin who back in 2006 was defeated in the runoff by Lula da Silva, who was running for re-election, the opposition hopeful would be ahead with 41% against 37% for the former union leader. Last June a similar poll showed the two were even.

The survey also includes a possible third scenario with Senator Jose Serra as opposition presidential candidate, who would defeat Lula da Silva 43% to 36%. Serra lost in 2002 to Lula da Silva and again in 2010 against Dilma Rousseff, both in the runoffs.

Currently Lula da Silva looks as the only potential presidential candidate of the ruling Workers Party, while in the PSDB there would have to be a primary to decide on which candidate, Neves, Alckmin and Serra,

However O Estado de Sao Paulo also points out that the sliding popularity of Lula da Silva and the strengthening of the opposition candidates compared to June's surveys can be attributed to the very poor support (8%) the current administration of Dilma Rousseff enjoys.

The president could be impeached any moment if the main ally in the coalition drops out. She also faces a declining economy, growing unemployment and corruption scandals in Petrobras involving mostly members of the ruling party.

The poll was done between 15/19 August, involving 2002 voting age interviews in 142 cities and towns, with a plus/minus 2 percentage points error margin.

Categories: Politics, Brazil.

Top Comments

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  • Skip

    Great article on how it all went wrong for Brazil:
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-brazils-china-driven-commodities-boom-went-bust-1440728049

    Hopefully Brazil might learn this time and reform the hell out of their economy and political system. The start is to forget about political dynasties or comebacks. Unhitch from Venezuela and Argentina and engage with Europe and the US.

    All the eggs went into one basket and the basket ended up having a hole in it.

    Aug 28th, 2015 - 08:58 am 0
  • Chicureo

    Skip,

    It wasn't the hole in the basket as much as the snakesin charge to protect the eggs...

    Aug 28th, 2015 - 10:37 am 0
  • ChrisR

    “Former Brazilian president Lula da Silva, if he decided to run again in 2018 as his Workers Party insists, would lose the presidential contest against any of three potential candidates from the leading opposition party”

    OH NO!

    The Chief Crook has been sussed out by some of the people - probably WESTERNERS!

    Cue Brasso to defend his idol, sorry I spelt that wrongly, it's IDLE!

    HA, HA, HA, HA.

    Aug 28th, 2015 - 11:07 am 0
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