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Argentine stocks and the Peso strengthen following Sunday primary results
Argentine stocks rose, the peso strengthened more than 3% and credit default swaps fell on Monday after the mid-term legislative primary election was seen as favoring business-friendly President Mauricio Macri's reform effort. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesReekie from another thread:
Aug 16th, 2017 - 06:10 pm - Link - Report abuse +1““The country’s overseas bonds are among the worst performers in emerging markets over the past three weeks, the peso keeps hitting record lows ...That's Macrism at work.”
You have cause and effect mixed up.
These new results confirm that it was a blip caused by CFK announcing her candidacy and appearing to have more support than proved to be the case. So, now that she's lost relevance, the economy can return to the positive track that Macri initiated. That is Macrism at work. CFK tried to a spanner into the works but the population pulled it out and threw it away.
You must be really upset at this reversal of the negative trend that CFK initiated.
Says Zaphod:
Aug 16th, 2017 - 06:32 pm - Link - Report abuse -2“...CFK announcing her candidacy and appearing to have more support than proved to be the case.”
So sorry, Zaphod. You seem to be caught in the Macri government's maneuver to make a splash on election night...even if a different reality is emerging.
The Macrist candidate in Buenos Aires province Esteban Bullrich has grudgingly acknowledged he may lose to Cristina Fernandez.
However, in the meantime most newspapers, commentators and the market continue to use inaccurate official information showing a win of Macrism in Buenos Aires province and concluding Kirchnerism is dead in Argentina.
Indeed, winning the province is vital because it has the largest population concentration in the country, gathering alone 37 per cent of Argentine electors or about 12 million.
The provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, where Kirchnerism won, concentrate 45 per cent of the country electors.
That is why some of those writing early Kirchnerism obits are misinformed--others are just expressing wishful thinking--and all are getting ahead of themselves.
Reekie,
Aug 17th, 2017 - 04:26 am - Link - Report abuse +1You have failed to address the story or my comment that the 3 week blip in Argentina's economy had absolutely nothing to do with Macri, but the adverse effects of CFK's candidacy.
“The Macrist candidate in Buenos Aires province Esteban Bullrich has grudgingly acknowledged he may lose to Cristina Fernandez.”
Maybe so, but not by the 3-4% that was predicted earlier. If she wins it will be very close. You are forgetting or denying the fact that almost all of the votes have now been counted.
Zaphod
Aug 17th, 2017 - 05:41 am - Link - Report abuse -2Your information is incorrect. About five per cent of polling stations remained uncounted in Bs. As. province. Usually some ballots are left for final counting but five per cent is unusually high.
You are right in that Cristina will not win by a large margin. But her results may convince Macri to soften his measures impacting the less fortunate, which is an important role of any democratic opposition. Macri and his team need to realize they are governing the whole country--not only for the benefit of an exclusive group of 1,000 families.
About those uncounted ballots, once again, Kamerad/Komrade Rique, lies through his teeth. The government did not stop the counting. But the tallies of over 1500+ ballot boxes could not be recorded (by the Judiciary,) because of the handling of the boxes, ie the tallies being sealed in the box incorrectly instead being kept separate and accessible, or, more to the point, the tallies having more votes cast than than legal voters listed for the neighborhood.( I have read that one discrepancy was by 619 votes!) All of these boxes now have to be gone through ,counted manually, and the ballots examined for legitimacy. Now far be it from me to say that Kamerad/Komrade Rique is telling the truth, since he is the “José Goebbels” of the Narcokleptocracy here at MercoPress, but let's take him at his word for the sake of argument and agree that the withheld boxes all come from the areas that were under Kirchner's political control,(ones with high levels of violent and narco crime.) What are we to make of this? That the Kirchner machine has tried to pad the numbers with electoral fraud? That she, and Kamerad/Komrade Rique, are anxious that the purported numbers be accepted without scrutiny? I think it's pretty obvious...
Aug 17th, 2017 - 11:19 am - Link - Report abuse +1http://www.thebubble.com/who-really-won-last-nights-primaries-fact-we-have-no-idea/
@IY
Aug 17th, 2017 - 04:10 pm - Link - Report abuse -1“Without scrutiny?”
No at all.
“All of these boxes now have to be gone through ,counted manually, and the ballots examined for legitimacy.”
Your information is incorrect. The final count, expected to be completed in about 10 days, consists in a revision of electoral acts signed by the president of each polling station.
Those numbers will be compared with preliminary results that were based on telegrams sent by each polling station to the central computing station.
So ballot boxes are not opened unless one of the political parties presents tangible evidence of discrepancy and the electoral judge authorizes the opening and inspection of a ballot box--rarely done.
As for your Bubble source, it's a good journalistic effort, but on a controversial matter such as the election in Buenos Aires province you need to consult a diversity of sources in order to make sense of what happened on election night.
As reported by Clarin, at 9 p.m. the difference between Cristina Fernandez and Esteban Bullrich was over five points.
At 11 p.m. the difference was three points, and by 1 a.m. Monday, the difference was reduced to two points.
At 4 a.m. the difference had become 0.01 point, and went up to 0.08 by 6 a.m.
The percentage of results from polling stations left unpublished was unusually high--the count was closed when 95.68 per cent had been recorded, when the usual amount of unreadable telegrams or other errors is about two per cent.
With a difference of nearly 7,000 ballots, about 300,000 ballots were left unrecorded on Monday. This was the basis for Union Ciudadana and CFK complaints. The matter will remain unsolved until the final results are published--in the meantime, opinions differ between government and opposition supporters as to who won and by how much.
At this point, all voters can hope is for a clean and transparent final count.
Reekie,
Aug 17th, 2017 - 06:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“You are right in that Cristina will not win by a large margin.”
Thank you. I've been saying this all along and you've gone through denial, deflection and told me that I didn't understand. I am glad that you finally accept this simple fact that was apparent to me some time ago.
Now, stop deflecting with details about the poll, and try to provide some evidence against my suggestion that the 3-week blip in Argentina's economy was nothing to do with Macri but all about the spectre of a CFK return.
Zaphod:
Aug 17th, 2017 - 09:45 pm - Link - Report abuse -1There is a new development today that may change my previous admission about by how much CFK may win.
Citizens have checked information posted online about results in the polling station where they voted.
Having voted for a given party, much to their surprise they found out in some cases that there were zero votes recorded for the party they knew they had cast at least ONE ballot.
When C5N aired the story, similar complaints started to rain, and today they were reaching 11,000. This is just media, I know. But watch for further developments on this one.
As for the cause of the craziness of the market, I really don't care much about it, but I can accept that this shows how much financiers love Macri and fear Cristina.
This, rather than proving how bad CFK is, shows the vulnerability of the economy as it becomes more indebted, imports more and sheds its domestic manufacturing capacity.
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