MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
From Belfast PM May calls on the EU to prevent a hard border in Ireland
British Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday called on the European Union to strike a new deal to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland and demanded Brussels quickly respond to her 'white paper' plan to avoid a damaging no-deal Brexit. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesJesus. Like setting fire to somebodys home then blaming them for the damage as they couldnt extinguish the blaze.
Jul 21st, 2018 - 09:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0The Irish leadership has sold out the sovereign interests of its people as demonstrated by their continued toleration of this british occupation.
Jul 22nd, 2018 - 01:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@chronic
Jul 23rd, 2018 - 02:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Ha ha very funny, N. Ireland is British by consent of its population, doesn’t need any permission from the ROI.
However you are correct about the Irish Gov, they have led their people along the yellow brick road to the point where WTO rules are the most likely outcome and the EU will make them put in a hard border.
The British will keep to their part of the December agreement and maintain full regulatory alignment for cross border industries, however this will be of little help to the economy of the South overall.
@ED
Jul 23rd, 2018 - 04:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0What a rubbish analogy. The border affects both sides equally and both must cooperate in order for it to be open. If May can find a reasonable compromise and the EU reject it, it's on them.
The Irish Gov have rejected every compromise in favour of maintaining a status quo which will soon no longer exist.
Jul 23rd, 2018 - 04:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0There is no longer any way forward on this one.
The Irish government aren't free to decide whatever they want anyway. What about May's new plan? AFAIK the EU haven't rejected it outright.
Jul 23rd, 2018 - 06:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That’s true, the Irish Gov have admitted that border controls are a matter “entirely within the competence of the EU”, in that matter they are entirely a rule taker.
Jul 24th, 2018 - 11:55 am - Link - Report abuse 0However in this case they are insisting on a backstop which keeps things the same as now and respects all EU requirements/red lines, irrespective of any reality or UK red lines. No such deal exists, it has to be a compromise (by all three parties) or it’s a no deal outcome.
Given the somewhat less than enthusiastic reaction to the Chequers plan in Brussels, the subsequent neutering amendments in parliament, the lack of a parliamentary majority and any real support in the country, I think you can consider it dead even if it is still walking, for the moment.
If any deal on the border is dead, we are looking at a hard Brexit and a severe shock to the economy. Remember 2007? And recovery is likely to be even harder than after the great recession(!) Trade deals take years at the best of times, and with a trade war just beginning we're going to be swimming against the tide. Can you even name a country that operates solely under WTO rules?
Jul 24th, 2018 - 09:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The UK is going to be operating solely under them soon. Some 40% of our trade is already done under them.
Jul 25th, 2018 - 12:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0So it is entirely “doable” don’t believe project fear that the Sky will fall in, just like it didn’t when we didn’t join the Euro or when we voted to leave the EU.
We will still have to discuss things like Aviation agreements with the EU, where it is at least as much in their interests as ours. Given the size of their trade surplus with the UK it is also in their interest to discuss a smooth transition to WTO rules.
Under which we will collect tens of billions of pound more in tariffs that we have to pay in our trade with the EU.
I am not saying that this is the ideal outcome, far from it, but it is just about the only outcome that there is no argument about, all the rules are set for you nothing to “negotiate”, simply a discussion about implementing them, where that is also set out along with dispute resolution procedures.
All with no role for the ECJ, no freedom of movement for people, no “payments” and no EU directives, surprise, surprise it can be done.
chronic i.e pathological
Jul 25th, 2018 - 02:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“The Irish leadership... by their continued toleration of this british occupation.”
Oh! you mean that they should tear up the 'Good Friday Agreement' and ignore peoples right of 'self determination'
What an idiot.
Which project fear are you talking about? I don't remember anyone threatening the end of the world if we didn't join the Euro, there seemed to be a consensus among economists that it was a bad idea. The government at the time considered and rejected the idea, and I don't think the opposition disagreed.
Jul 26th, 2018 - 06:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0And after the Brexit vote some people thought there might be a recession, instead we just had a dramatic fall in the pound which lead to increased inflation, and now we're seeing slower growth.
But you are assuming trade will continue as before if we fall into WTO rules. That is highly unlikely, rather many UK products will become uncompetitive (or even banned) in the EU and will no longer be sold there, and vice-versa. If no alternative markets can be found, then businesses will shut down or relocate back into the block. The excess tariffs collected on imports (if there are any), will in no way compensate for the lost trade.
“I am not saying that this is the ideal outcome, far from it”
It's nearly the worst possible outcome, and you can bet there will still be plenty to argue about (the divorce bill, for a start).
As I say there is actually nothing to argue about under WTO rules, it is all already defined. Along with dispute resolution procedures.
Jul 27th, 2018 - 05:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Where we will be the EUs biggest export market it is as much in their interest to have a working system, as it is in ours.
With the divorce bill where there is an actual obligation we pay it, that is about £3.5Bn, the rest they can take us to court if they like, where their own lawyers have told the EU there are no enforceable obligations once the UK leaves.
This payment was agreed in return for a transition/trade deal, without that then they have to put something on the table in return, if they still want it. This is how a negotiation works.
Simply arguing its owed, when even your own lawyers tell you it isn’t, is a negotiating position you can ignore, after all what are they going to do? Take something of the table that isn’t there.
The biggest hit for the EU will be in financial services/liquidity 90% + of these transactions they do in London yet they are less than 10% of London’s business.
To set up your own little markets puts cost through the roof because of the loss of economies of scale.
As for the mantra “no deal it would be bad for the EU but worse for the UK”,
well that depends on where in the EU you are talking about and if you factor in all the effects or not.
Given who is saying that in the current situation do you really think they would say otherwise, whatever the truth is.
The worst possible outcome would be the sort of thing Theresa is already proposing never mind what she could end up agreeing to.
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