Over 300,000 jobs could be at risk in the Travel & Tourism sector in the United Kingdom and almost 400,000 in Europe if the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 29 March, according to a new analysis from the World Travel & Tourism Council released on Monday. A “No Deal” Brexit would have a damaging impact on one of the UK’s most important economic sectors.
According to WTTC, which represents the private sector of Travel & Tourism globally, the industry contributes more than €1.5 trillion to the EU’s GDP (10.3% of total) and supports 27.3 million jobs (11.7% of total). In the UK, the sector contributes £213.8 billion to GDP (10.5% of total) and supports four million jobs (11.6% of total).
The WTTC analysis models the impact on the Travel & Tourism sector over the next decade, based on the 7.7% forecasted fall in economic activity across the wider UK economy modeled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this situation, a No Deal Brexit would result in: A loss of 308,000 jobs in the UK economy; A loss of 399,000 jobs in the rest of the EU; A loss of £18.6 billion in GDP to the UK economy; A loss of £22.0 billion in GDP to the economies of the rest of the EU
To minimize the impact, it is crucial that: The UK should continue to have access to the Single Aviation Market; 2. Visa-free travel between the UK and EU should be maintained and the movement of people should be as seamless as possible while maintaining security; The mobility of labor for Travel & Tourism employees across the UK and EU should continue; 4. Security co-operation to avoid hard border checks and lengthy delays are paramount.
Gloria Guevara, President & CEO, WTTC said, “The UK is the fifth largest Travel & Tourism economy in the world. Given its importance to the UK economy, it is now clear that a No Deal Brexit would have a dramatic impact on one of the UK’s most significant sectors.”
“If the IMF prediction on the wider economy is realized, there would be a total cost across Europe of over £40 billion and over 700,000 jobs compared to our projections. Our Members are already seeing an impact on their businesses and workforce.”