MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Polls: Fernández-Fernández headed for a first-round win in Argentina's presidential elections
Barely a week after the Alberto Fernández-Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) ticket for the upcoming presidential elections in Argentina was announced, the unexpected Peronist-Kirchnerist pairing is over ten points ahead of incumbent President Mauricio Macri and whomever he picks as his running mate, according to two polls sponsored by the center-left Página 12 newspaper, it was reported. Read full article
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Disclaimer & comment rules“ Be afraid Argentina ” careful who you vote for, or maybe it is what you deserve. You all need to work hard and pay your taxes and then maybe you will see things change.No good relying on handouts as many Argies do.
May 28th, 2019 - 08:00 am - Link - Report abuse +4@golfcronie
May 28th, 2019 - 11:37 am - Link - Report abuse +2What would ANYONE expect from the population which generously permits the crooks - well-known & not-so-well-known - who are at various stages of investigations [from the suspected to the accused, convicted, condemned]; to be the candidates + get elected; knowing fully well that none of them are patriots or the least of all, care for the citizens?
http://www.filosofia.seed.pr.gov.br/modules/galeria/uploads/3/normal_comparacao_politico.jpeg
God help Argentina! What a disaster!
May 28th, 2019 - 01:02 pm - Link - Report abuse +3If this duo succeed in being elected, be it on the first or second round, ........................... “DON'T CRY FOR ME ARGENTINA”........
May 28th, 2019 - 01:05 pm - Link - Report abuse +2So nice to see the usual crowd here in MP crying out loud because the Argentine electors appear to be going to the antipodes of what they tout.
May 28th, 2019 - 04:46 pm - Link - Report abuse -3Their disconcert shows their deep disconnect with the reality Argentines are facing every day, and what's more, their little concern by the disastrous economic conditions the country is in as a result of the measures taken by the current government.
Electors can be swayed on occasion -- happened in 2015 and 2017 -- but they are not stupid. Macri and his contempt for the Argentines is the first responsible for the success of the FF recently announced ticket.
The key is in the following paragraph of the above story:
“Such an “achievement” is due to Macri's disastrous economic management that makes the CFK years look glorious.”
I will give the “golden cochon” prize to golfcronie, who first asked the Argentines to be “afraid” and then suggested they should work hard and “pay their taxes.”
Sure, golfcronie, I suggest you take a tour there. The Argentines would sure welcome you by the hundreds of thousands and next would be asking you where those job offers can be found. They'll be happy to have a formal job and be able to pay taxes!
Sr. Massot...
May 28th, 2019 - 05:20 pm - Link - Report abuse -4You comments in here are like a tall shiny red poppy in the midst of a grey field of flat dusty turnips...
;-)
And there's the root of it,
May 28th, 2019 - 06:26 pm - Link - Report abuse +4Looking at a pile of bullshit and calling it a shiny red poppy.
@Think
May 28th, 2019 - 07:25 pm - Link - Report abuse -4Thanks!
So nice to hear their teeth grinding...
The horror! The horror!
May 28th, 2019 - 10:28 pm - Link - Report abuse -1Jonaz
May 29th, 2019 - 02:02 am - Link - Report abuse -5“The horror! The horror!”
Sure. For the few ones who benefited from Macri's Joyful Revolution -- the banks and financial institutions, the energy companies who were allowed to bill their customers according to the US dollar, the Macri Group companies, and not much more, the upcoming election may look frightening.
However, to the majority of the Argentines -- including the owners of small, medium size and even large companies, they are horrified by the present.
Again, nice to hear the grinding of teeth...
What a picture...!
May 29th, 2019 - 05:27 am - Link - Report abuse -3https://elcactus.com.ar/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/IMG-20190528-WA0028.jpg
The “nice to hear the grinding of teeth” statement reveals more than you think. In fact, it is symptomatic of the stereotypical resentful socialist: As long as no one is successful and we all are poor, I'm alright.
May 29th, 2019 - 06:47 am - Link - Report abuse +3Driven by resentment, these people are most happy when their fellow citizens are deprived of freedom to grow; either economically or otherwise. People like you keep humanity from progressing to its full potential, narcissistically in love with their own desire to control other human beings - not by talent or hard work but rather by violence.
Yours is certainly no better than the fascists of the 1930s. Socialism has an even worse human track records than fascism, if you bothered to check. You truly make me sick. Good riddance when that day arrives.
Turnip Jonaz_BsAs just above says...:
May 29th, 2019 - 07:38 am - Link - Report abuse -4***“Socialism has an even worse human track records than fascism, if you bothered to check.”***
I say...:
Democratic Socialism in me “Auld Countries” (Scandinavia and selected Hanseatic regions)...have..., as a matter of fact..., the best human development track record in the history of mankind..., if you bothered to check...
Educate yourself... ye dogmatic turnip...
Scandinavian countries aren't socialist. Not at all. It's a myth. They are market liberal countries. In fact, Denmark is the most competitive country in the world. YOU go educate yourself. I suggest you check data rather than populist rhetoric, from where it seems you get all your input.
May 29th, 2019 - 08:16 am - Link - Report abuse +3Yet another ignorant..., dogmatic Turnip trying to tell us..., pure..., genuine and unadultered auld SOCIAL DEMOCRATS from the STAUNING & OLOF PALME school of thought..., what we are and are not...!
May 29th, 2019 - 08:47 am - Link - Report abuse -3Did you see the video from your dogmatic Turnipette Yank mate at FOX about good auld DK...?
Socialdemocrately answered by one of our young SOCIAL DEMOCRAT lads...?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2DWvewVNLoI&t=215s
Enjoy and learn............., Turnip...
@Jonaz
May 29th, 2019 - 04:48 pm - Link - Report abuse -1Another clever distraction maneuver by Jonaz.
Jonaz won’t discuss the topic at hand, so instead he throws here a wide array of topics including socialism, fascism, human progress, narcissism. “Divert, divert, and some will stick.”
Jonaz also calls the author of this posting resentful…and next vows to celebrate the day he disappears from earth’s face and can’t keep the fun going.
But anger is never good guidance, and Jonaz has missed an interesting point in the above story that, to me, is worth celebrating.
The point being, much-vilified Argentines are demonstrating again their capacity to shake up a government when they realize it attempts to take them down.
That is why in Argentina dictators never lasted more than a few years, while other Latin American countries endured decades-old authoritarian characters.
And so, Mauricio Macri, who won an election based on a pile of cheap lies and false promises, had the gall of believing he could keep conning the electors with promises of a heaven of wellness that some day – in a nebulous future – will touch Argentines with its grace.
And what are the Argentines now saying?
“Fool me once, shame on you – fool me twice, shame on me.”
Best of all: they are acting on it.
Finally!!!!
May 29th, 2019 - 04:51 pm - Link - Report abuse -2TS
May 30th, 2019 - 12:06 am - Link - Report abuse -3Absolutely, Teresa!
Another point worth noting is the absolute reluctance of keyboard warriors to print a single line commenting on Argentina's current economic situation.
They “see no evil, hear no evil,” in today's Argentina. No sir. They prefer to keep talking about how bad the CFK government was, and how poor Macri could not cope with the “inheritance.”
However, they will flock crying out loud about the soaring vote intentions for CFK which are but the consequences of the deteriorating conditions in which the Argentines are living today.
Ideology, and no concern for human beings, is what drives them.
Reap what you sow, just suck it up Argentina
May 30th, 2019 - 09:24 am - Link - Report abuse -1Estimado Sr. Massot...
May 30th, 2019 - 10:53 am - Link - Report abuse -2Today..., the beat of the jungle drums is that Sergio Massa from AF (Alternativa Federal... :-(
Is very, very soon to become.........................: Sergio Massa from AF (Alberto Fernández... :-)
May 2019: “CEOP indicated 39.3 percent would vote for the Fernandez while Macri / Cambiemos would gather 29.7 of the votes” So the difference is 9.6%.
May 30th, 2019 - 04:52 pm - Link - Report abuse +2But it is early days. Let us look at what happened in th elast election: http://www.wikiwand.com/en/2015_Argentine_general_election
April 2015: Massa = 24.7%, Scioli =17.9%, Macri = 15.9% The difference between Massa and Macri was 8.8%. But who went on to win? What happened to Massa? History could repeat itself so don't start counting your chickens Reekie. ;-)
WHO WILL BE THE NEXT BEGGING-BOWL HOLDER?
May 30th, 2019 - 05:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@EM
May 30th, 2019 - 09:29 pm - Link - Report abuse +1“Their disconcert shows their deep disconnect with the reality Argentines are facing every day...as a result of the measures taken by the current government.”
And your discourse “shows a deep disconnect” from the fact that CFK preceded Macri...and that 12 years of Kirchnerism lead to her being ousted.....but of course, I forgot - there is absolutely NO connection between CFK's and the “current government”.....because Macri was handed a country in a very privileged situation, booming industry, large foreign surplus, full employment, and then....Macri f*cked it up.....well not everyone can be as competent as Cristina, can they ?
“Electors can be swayed on occasion -- happened in 2015 and 2017 -- but they are not stupid”.
Can be swayed yet they aren't stupid ?? C'mon Reekie, it's one of the other...they are, or they aren't stupid....or were they only stupid when they were “swayed” to not vote for CFK ? and now the same voters are intelligent because they will probably be “swayed” to vote for CFK's return...I'd say this back 'n forth, and back again, has a lot to do with wishful thinking, a good dose of ignorance and false promises....but not to woory, they make such a nice couple, the F-F's.
So, don't think you should worry about Macri, he'll be gone in 6 months, and Argentina 2020, with CFK, will return to its old glory...
But I must admire the Chubut turnip's loyalty to you...never seen two people get on so well together....even from a distance.
Estimado Sr. Massot...
May 30th, 2019 - 10:22 pm - Link - Report abuse -4The junge drums were right...! Sergio Massa from A.F. is now talking to A. F. :-)))
By the way... don't spend all your powder in ChimAnglos...
Let them live and grind their beaks... It's fun...
@JB
May 30th, 2019 - 11:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0REF: “Electors can be swayed on occasion -- happened in 2015 and 2017 -- but they are not stupid”.
I'd hesitate to bet on their “Intelligence+Shrewdness”!
Think
May 31st, 2019 - 01:42 am - Link - Report abuse -3Yeah, it looks like there is a lot of momentum to join FF and the reluctant ones are increasingly isolated. Apparently this is influencing Massa as well -- the optics of dividing the vote again would be much worse this time.
So nice to see the fruits of the generous move de la Reina are working just as she had expected. Genia de la estrategia nuestra potranca!
I know the chimanglos are not worth it...but sometimes I can't resist...enjoy their disconcert!
What a good week this was...;-)))
May 31st, 2019 - 07:39 am - Link - Report abuse -2https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lqkQODVnJN8
@Think
May 31st, 2019 - 08:59 am - Link - Report abuse 0REF: What a good week this was
In South America; you can say that again - and AGAIN!
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/brazil-flirts-double-dip-recession-economy-shrinks-190530131400911.html
Mr. Jack Bauer...
May 31st, 2019 - 05:37 pm - Link - Report abuse -2Why don't you make yourself useful for once and give that Brasilian Skull above some conversation...?
I Think he is lonely and in need of a fellow Turnip...
@Mr. Stink
May 31st, 2019 - 06:17 pm - Link - Report abuse +2happy to oblige ... please see below...
@:o))
”I'd hesitate to bet on their “Intelligence+Shrewdness”!
Right, but when you get a turnip of the Canadian-Argy / Chubut variety, be sure that nothing sensible will come out of it. To that variety of turnip ( a bit defective, really), whenever things happen as they want, it is 'democracy'.....when they don't, it's not democracy....it's a bit like voters can be swayed to be either stuoid, or intelligent....and while they are deciding which they want to be, the Canadian variety of turnip becomes a bit “disconcerted”....
As I said, those turnips make a 'happy' couple....and that is all that matters.
Gooooooooooood boy...
May 31st, 2019 - 06:42 pm - Link - Report abuse -3Jack, the expert in all things Brazil, is not commenting much about that country, so he is trying his hand at Argentina's current affairs...but the tide is turning there so he is reduced to try to divert the conversation to semantics or secondary topics.
May 31st, 2019 - 10:21 pm - Link - Report abuse -2He, like other keyboard warriors, can't understand much the current process, so they resort to their default position, that is, CFK is baaaad, Macri could not do any better than he did -- because CFK is soooo bad!
Meanwhile, the Macri presidency has been the worst since democracy was restored in 1983 -- none has shown so much greed and such absolute incapacity to manage the affairs of the state.
Which appears to be all our valiant keyboard warriors admire.
@Enrique Massot
May 31st, 2019 - 11:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 0REF: “the Macri presidency has been the worst since democracy was restored in 1983”:
http://www.operamundi.com.br/media/images/MacriFondosBuitreArgentina.gif
@EM
May 31st, 2019 - 11:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You do realise you are also a 'valiant' keyboard warrior, right? Who sometimes tries his hand at Brazil's current affairs - default position that Lula is goooood and therefore must be innocent. Anything more complicated and you are not interested. And Jack is still commenting plenty about Brazil.
Wanna know what's more convincing than just criticising people for believing what they do? Almost anything!
Your stupidest comment ever..., Mr. “”“”“DemonTree”“”“””
Jun 01st, 2019 - 06:32 am - Link - Report abuse -1Equating an Argie poster that openly interacts with his full, authentic name and surname and who never has posted other than his respect for the basic principles of social justice..., human rights and democracy..., with an anonymous Anglo poster writing under a Hollywood mass murderer nick that REPEATEDLY writes that it is best to kill Brasilian street children whilst they are young ... is just plain...: S T U P I D.
Capisce...?
What's the matter? Doesn't ANYONE enjoy a good joke?
Jun 01st, 2019 - 09:18 am - Link - Report abuse 0Here goes:
#1: ARGENTINA!
#2: Here is Another:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-E5oKV5kn8sI/U4dhdW-p1GI/AAAAAAAAALE/mXY4INLkhi8/s1600/Economia-Argentina.jpg
@Anonymous Keyboard Warrior Think
Jun 01st, 2019 - 11:56 am - Link - Report abuse 0Nothing you said contradicts anything I said.
Enrique's had enough people attack him personally instead of addressing the topic to know that it's a crap argument. He can do better than that.
- AKW DemonTree
Sr. Massot...
Jun 01st, 2019 - 12:02 pm - Link - Report abuse -2Future looks bright when there is respect for the past...
https://images.pagina12.com.ar/styles/focal_16_9_960x540/public/media/articles/1298/pepe.jpg?itok=goXvMNhB
Think is happy...
Something I would like to know is how much support this Alberto Fernadez has in Congress and from the people. Would he just be a figurehead for Cristina, or is he going to be in charge?
Jun 01st, 2019 - 12:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0What's stopping you finding out about that..., lad...?
Jun 01st, 2019 - 02:01 pm - Link - Report abuse -1It's certainly not any lack of available material about Mr. Fernandez on the net...
Dislike of trying to read Spanish. :D
Jun 01st, 2019 - 02:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Besides, it's all opinion and I don't know whose to trust.
DT
Jun 01st, 2019 - 03:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Indeed: I know I could do a better job of supporting my opinions. I used to spend significant time looking for supporting sources and posting links to it…to no avail. My interest now is just to introduce some divergent opinion into this otherwise monochrome forum.
As Think just told you, those interested in finding out about divergent opinions expressed here may use the keywords to search in the Net for information sources.
On Sept. 27, 2015, I posted what Macri was going to do as president if he won the October election. (Link to that story below).
”Marketer presidential candidate Mauricio Macri aspire to enable the wealthy to capture 70 per cent of the national income (and) has said in the past that wages must go down.
”Juan Peron tipped the scale to 50-50 (but) after 1955's ‘Revolución Libertadora,’ the wealthy (got) again 70 per cent...Kirchnerism took things back to 50-50.”
Was I right? No!
If anything, I was too optimistic. I failed to foresee the extensive damage that in record time Macrism would inflict to the Argentine economy, hurting not only workers, and not only small companies but even large ones...unless they belong to the select circle of the president's friends, relatives or associates.
For that posting I was scoffed at, attacked, called names and accused of crimes to the extent of MP posters' imagination.
The few who remain or replaced the 2015 lynching mob are now careful not to comment MP stories providing economic data about Argentina’s disascurrent state, while being prolific about how bad the CFK government was…after four years out of office.
Now, I believe the FF ticket has serious chances to replace the Macri gang and that gives me hope for my home country.
Oh, and I do believe Lula is innocent and that he was put in jail for the political reasons his sentencing judge was made justice minister.
Have a good weekend.
https://en.mercopress.com/2015/09/26/us-dollar-in-argentina-at-an-all-time-record-of-16.08-pesos/comments
Lazy monolingual boy...
Jun 01st, 2019 - 03:43 pm - Link - Report abuse -1There are online translators..., ya know...? Then there s Duolingo...
(Besides there are tons and tons of factual info about Professor Fernandez...)
@EM
Jun 01st, 2019 - 05:19 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Mmmm. That was before I joined, people really did pile on in those days... most of the disasters that people were predicting if CFK stayed in power have come to pass under Macri. I bet he'd kill to get the peso back to 16 to the dollar. How are the shares of the national income now?
Anyway, your prediction was a lot more accurate than Brasileiro's of the end of the dollar. ;)
The FF do seem to have a good chance, and Macri has only himself to blame.
Have a good weekend yourself.
@Think
If you're gonna call me lazy anyway, I may as well give you a reason...
I use Google translate to read Portuguese, but it doesn't always make sense. It's noticeably better at Spanish. I have a 675 day streak on Duolingo and I'm thinking of quitting because it's not fun anymore - it's just become stressful.
Besides that, the biggest problem can be knowing where to begin, searching in a foreign language. Amazing it's possible at all, I guess.
@Enrique Massot
Jun 01st, 2019 - 05:25 pm - Link - Report abuse +2“Jack, the expert in all things Brazil, is not commenting much about that country, so he is trying his hand at Argentina's current affairs.”
Reekie, with all due respect, may I ask you if you are awake or dreaming ?
First, I am not an expert on Brazilian affairs, nor have I ever claimed to be ..but compared to you..
You also, mention ”Jack is not commenting much about that country (Brazil)“, which leads me to the conclusion are either not doing your homework - read, before blowing hot air - or are so occupied with CFK and her re-election that you dont have time for Brazil...poor Brazil, it will not benefit from your insightful views.
But instead of answering my questions - which are out of genuine interest in your thoughts - you prefer to ignore them and allege I ”can't understand much the current process“....you are right, I don't understand it all, but on the other hand, I do now know that I shouldn't be asking an idiot like you to explain it to me....my bad....sorry you nincompoop !
@DT
think that Stink's comment to you ”Your stupidest comment ever..., Mr. “”“”“DemonTree”“, applies to himself....“think” he shot himself in the foot. “capisce...?”
I was about to log off when I saw EM's “Oh, and I do believe Lula is innocent and that he was put in jail for the political reasons his sentencing judge was made justice minister”.
Unfortunately for EM, he has just proven he is uninformed, misinformed and.....enough...not worthwhile wasting anymore time on.
BTW, it's just leaked out - but unfortunately will only be confirmed later, if true - that Palocci, during his deposition on the PT crimes involving the BNDES, started to mention that Joesley Batista (JBS) fed the PT's foreign account (in Lula's and in Dilma's names), to the order of approximately US$ 330 million....apparently this information refers to a more important case, being deposed for the STF, reason why Raquel Dodge (Attorney Gen'l) told Palocci to save it...for the STF.
That went well... not.
Jun 02nd, 2019 - 09:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0Re CFK, it's not like any party can expect to stay in power for ever, (and it wouldn't be good if they did) 12 years is a pretty decent length of time. A more interesting question is whether you'd prefer to take control of 2015 Argentina or current Argentina and why. What d'you reckon?
Re Palocci, this was an account owned by the party, and the money would be used for campaigning? I thought it was common knowledge the parties took millions in 'unofficial' campaign donations?
@DT
Jun 02nd, 2019 - 10:57 am - Link - Report abuse +1REF: “It's all opinion and I don't know whose to trust”:
NO need to TRUST - just watch AND enjoy:
http://blogdocidbenjamin.zip.net/images/politicos.jpg
One one hand; the politicians consider it as Their Right to screw a country + on the other hand; the masses get addicted to getting screwed! So everything is “NORMAL”!
Pizza?
Jun 02nd, 2019 - 01:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Look, a war has broken out between the totalitarian leftists. Reminds me of when the relationship between the Soviet Union and China went south, a comparison that seems apt since their frame of reference is pretty much based on 1950s marxism.
Jun 02nd, 2019 - 06:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0DT
Jun 02nd, 2019 - 06:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0In LatAm, parties can,'n really do try to stay in power, indefinitely ; by what we've seen, usually leads to disaster.....
As far as your question is concerned, “would you prefer to take control of 2015 Argentina or current Argentina and why”...
That's a no-brainer. In 2015, Argentina was “going” down the drain, and now I'd say it's virtually “gone”. It's what I said to Reekie....I was aware Macri had screwed things, but to be fair, they were already no great shakes in 2015.
And why prefer 2015 to now, is because in 2016 - obviously depending on Congress - the situation could still, optimistically speaking, be fixed.....but unfortunately, the opposition in Argentina, exactly like the PT has done here since end 2018, has one objective, to obstruct government 'n sabotage anything that might be good for the country.
To prove this mindset, a braziian leftist politician 'n a Lula acolyte, Paulo P da Silva was recorded, stating that the opposition had to work against the pension reform, as they could not run the risk of Bolsonaro being re-elected (presumably, if it were a success). In other words, screw the country, it's people, and whatever else...to regain power.
PT's foreign account (Switzerland, I think), opened in the name of JBS, was first mentioned by Joesley Batista himself, while being deposed in the case against him (involving Temer), with a balance of (not US$, but) R$ 330 million (180 million for Lula, 150 for Dilma) to be used as they pleased...campaigning, funding the MST, to fill their own pockets...and all they had to do was request the funds, as they needed them.
Well, besides undeclared foreign accounts being illegal, electoral law expressly prohibits money from abroad. I believe Joesley was later on allowed to close the account 'n repatriate the money, with a 30% fine. But as this piece of information was not relevant to the BNDES case in which Palocci was deposing, the Attorney Gen'l told him to bring it up in the other case.
In LatAm, way too many times people have resorted to coups when they couldn't get their favoured candidate elected. It doesn't exactly increase faith in the democratic process. But it's a bit chicken and egg, parties/presidents in power would be a lot more willing to give it up if they were sure their successor would do the same.
Jun 02nd, 2019 - 11:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Re 2015 vs 2020, I'm not so sure. In some ways it would be easier to take over a country that has already hit bottom, as the only way from there is up. On the other hand, the IMF loan + foreign debt is a much bigger millstone around Argentina's neck now.
But from what I've seen, Macri has managed to pass most of his policies, whereas B doesn't have a big coalition and also faces a congress who expect something in return for their cooperation. It's a pretty damn cynical view to try and stop your rivals achieving anything good, given it's effect on the country.
“PT's foreign account”
It's just mindblowing how in Brazil there's corruption upon corruption, and this all just came up as a side note in another case. But why on earth did they let Joesley have most of the money back?
PS. I've replied re Chagos Islands here:
https://en.mercopress.com/2019/05/31/thousands-of-students-and-teachers-took-to-the-streets-of-brazil-to-protest-bugget-cuts/comments
JB
Jun 03rd, 2019 - 03:17 am - Link - Report abuse -1I really did not intend to insult you and apologize for being over the top and I do not know Brazilian politics to the level of detail you do. However, I am convinced that lawfare is being applied in Latin America and that Brazil was a big laboratory for such strategy.
I notice you attribute Macri's failures, at least partly, to opposition's “obstruction.”
“...unfortunately, the opposition in Argentina...has one objective, to obstruct government 'n sabotage anything that might be good for the country.”
First of all, the statement assumes Macri tried to do good things for Argentina. I couldn't disagree more. More on that below.
If one thing characterized Macri's time in office, is the ability to pass government bills with the support of the Peronist non Kirchnerist legislators. Kirchnerists played the minority in opposition, and you know democracy supposes debate between the governing party and the opposition.
Now, regarding Macri's intentions, Macri has submerged Argentina in an economy of speculation, while killing the productive economy. This was deliberate, and has led to today's sad state of affairs.
Macri spent his time in government blaming the “heavy inheritance” he had to cope with.
The government succeeding Macri, however, is the one that will be struggling with a monster government debt in relation to GDP. You judge: In 2015, the ratio was 52 per cent; now, it's 86 per cent.
@DemonTree
Jun 03rd, 2019 - 01:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0REF: Pizza
+ Infamous-VIPs
+ Suspected
+ Investigated
+ Accused
+ Convicted
+ Condemned
= PIZZA!
@DT
Jun 03rd, 2019 - 05:07 pm - Link - Report abuse +1“In LatAm, way too many times people have resorted to coups when they couldn't get their favoured candidate elected”...am not looking for detail as I'm sure such acts could fill a book, however, the coup - in Brazil, in 1964 - was slightly different. The military did not take over because 'their' candidate lost...they had no candidate - just didn't like what was happening on the political scene. It's clear you believe the military option was the worst that could've happened, but I, who saw it all - before, during and after - and compare it to the post-military period, am forced to disagree. You've always lived in a politically stable environment, so without trying to sound critical, your view is still that of an outsider.
Democracy's Achilles heel is exactly that it allows itself to be undermined from within.
And the fact that those in power would be “more willing to give it up if they were sure their successor would do the same”, is a pretty bleak outlook, which defeats the whole purpose of democracy. But it becomes reality when the people allow it to.
Agree that when you hit rock bottom, the only way is up....and while in 2015 it wasn't good, in 2020 it'll be worse...but probably not so different had CFK carried on.
It's a notorious fact that Congress puts it's own interests above those of Brazil.
“...why on earth did they let Joesley have most of the money back?”
Because that's the law...the fact the money was at someone else's disposal was irrelevant to that decision.
@EM
“I really did not intend to insult you ...”
Forget it....I didn't feel insulted. However, your being “convinced that lawfare is being applied in Latin America 'n that Brazil was a big laboratory for such strategy”...I don't know about LatAm, but in Brazil, in Lula's case ? many of his corrupt partners, after confessing, are also in jail.
But you have the right to believe what you want, even though it's wrong.
But returning to Macri : was “nothing” he tried, reasonable, or good ?
Oops, should have posted this here.
Jun 03rd, 2019 - 05:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0An interesting perspective: Fernández-Fernández: centrist credibility in the Argentina election?
http://blogs.bsg.ox.ac.uk/2019/05/30/fernandez-fernandez-centrist-credibility-in-the-argentina-election/
ZB
Jun 03rd, 2019 - 06:23 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Very interesting....no doubt about who's sitting in the driver's seat...
@JB
Jun 03rd, 2019 - 06:42 pm - Link - Report abuse +1I should have said 'when a candidate they really disliked was elected'. The army (in any country) didn't usually have a favoured candidate as such, but there were definitely some they objected to. I don't think the military taking over was the worst that could have happened, but it certainly wasn't the best.
Not sure why you think alternating power and playing by the rules is a bleak outlook. If you have trust then everyone has an interest in preserving it, (until you get someone like Trump who doesn't care). When there's no trust, it's hard to create it.
“Democracy's Achilles heel is exactly that it allows itself to be undermined from within.”
Maybe so, but you don't save democracy by destroying it.
“Because that's the law”
Damn. If they're going to ban bribes, they could at least arrange to confiscate the money when they find it.
Re Argentina, it wouldn't have been CFK anyway, but Scioli, and IIRC he distanced himself from some of her more unpopular policies, so who knows what would have happened. Even if there had still been a recession, it would have been preferable to avoid turning to the IMF, or maybe more to the point, getting in a situation where that became necessary.
As for Macri, I don't agree with EM about his intentions. I'm pretty sure that whatever he wanted to achieve, he didn't intend to screw the economy up as he has, because it's put his reelection in serious doubt. Besides that, enough people supported his policies to think they weren't obviously bad. Neoliberal, yes, but a lot of people believe in that sort of thing.
Anyway, I reckon even Enrique will agree that fixing the Indec stats was a good thing Macri did. I'm curious if he'll name anything else.
@ZB
Interesting article, thanks. But it's only looking at the pairing as an electoral strategy; we don't know whether CFK really intends to move towards the centre if elected.
@DT
Jun 03rd, 2019 - 09:26 pm - Link - Report abuse +1When Lula was elected, did the military object ? No.
You say that the military taking over wasn't the best option....perhaps - IF there had been a 3rd option....but at the time, if there was one, no one saw it. Anyway, whatever would've happened, am pretty sure there'd always be someone to criticize it.
The left here just can't seem to get over the fact they got screwed in 64, 'n keep on regurgitating it...don't know why...is it because they now feel they need to justify, or to diminish the effect of, what they did to Brazil later on...anyway, today, it's ancient history, 'n nothing will change it.
“Not sure why you think alternating power 'n playing by the rules is a bleak outlook.” Think we misunderstood each other...I interpreted the 'bleak outlook' as, if they weren't sure their sucessor would do the same ,i.e., give up power after 4 year, that they might be tempted to hang on to it...So ok, alternating power IS the best way, the only setback being when it results in radically changing direction in their approach to the economy, which can mean you're always going sideways i/o forward....a new Economy Minister, a new direction, but since the mid 90s, govts policies have +/- tended to converge.
JBS got the money back, but it'll have to pay huge fines, much more than what the accounts held.
Re ARG, we can only speculate, but while we are, had CFK been re-elected, and continued down the same path, she could easily have bankrupted the country, with little, if any, potential of rapid recovery, so who can gtee she wouldn't have resorted to the IMF, as well? It's obvious Macri did not INTEND to screw the economy, and to talk about it with hindsight, is no great accomplishment. Next year, regardless of who wins, or let's imagine CFK does, the economy will not promptly improve...and people will continue to speculate, “what if Macri had been re-elected”, or presume that, whatever CFK does, she was without a doubt the best option.
Fixing INDEC 'was' essential.
Mr. DemonTree...
Jun 04th, 2019 - 01:14 pm - Link - Report abuse -1You say...:
***“ I reckon even Enrique will agree that fixing the Indec stats was a good thing Macri did.”***
I say...:
***“ Fixing the INDEC...?”***
Again..., lad..., inform yourself before commenting ...
https://www.pagina12.com.ar/102322-la-inflacion-subestimada
Wonder what your “Excuse” wil be this time...
Maybe something a la...: ***“ Pagina12 is as trustworthy as those Engrish newspapers telling us that Brexit ain't good for the UK ”***
Iddeed it is..., laddie...
Indeed it is...
@JB
Jun 04th, 2019 - 05:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“When Lula was elected, did the military object ? No.”
They were objecting to Haddad before the election, hinting they might take action if he was elected...
“The left here just can't seem to get over the fact they got screwed in 64, 'n keep on regurgitating it”
Do they? Since I've been watching, it has mostly come up due to B talking about it, wanting to commemorate the coup and whitewash what happened.
“I interpreted the 'bleak outlook' as...”
Ah, right. But it's common enough in Latin America for Presidents to try and rig the system in their favour, eg by appointing friendly judges, changing the constitution, and funnelling state funds to allies. And now there's another method: prosecute previous leaders for real or imaginary crimes, while making sure you and your allies are immune. Though sometimes that doesn't work out...
“the only setback being when it results in radically changing direction in their approach to the economy, which can mean you're always going sideways i/o forward”
True, that can be a downside. More common when there's greater polarisation.
“had CFK been re-elected, and continued down the same path, she could easily have bankrupted the country, with little, if any, potential of rapid recovery, so who can gtee she wouldn't have resorted to the IMF”
They wouldn't have lent to Argentina as long as she didn't pay the vultures off, nor would she have been able to borrow so much in the first place. If she did run out of money, perhaps she could've borrowed from China, but that has its own downside.
@Think
Are you replying to me, or some Macri-loving, Brexit supporting figment of your imagination?
I read the article, didn't follow it all. Perhaps it lost something in translation? If true, how does it compare to what Indec was doing under CFK?
How does it compare...?
Jun 04th, 2019 - 05:59 pm - Link - Report abuse -1Same shit..., with quite different odors and results...
Under Mme. Kirchner the inflation indexes were manipulated to pay less to the International Creditors who had purchased Inflation Indexed Bonds..., whilst the wages, pensions etc. followed the real inflation rate..., keeping and even increasing the purchasing power of the people...
Under chantapufi Maurizio the inflation indexes are adulterated as well..., but this time to make the people believe that the inflation is not as bad..., whilst 75% of Argies have lost 50% (yes..., fifty % ) of their purchasing power since 2016 and the Short Term International Creditors are making money by the bucket ...
Am I being clear...?
Latest rap hit in Argieland...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mAqZZ6tAb-M
Enjoy
DT
Jun 04th, 2019 - 07:15 pm - Link - Report abuse -1“As for Macri, I don't agree with EM about his intentions. I'm pretty sure that whatever he wanted to achieve, he didn't intend to screw the economy up as he has, because it's put his reelection in serious doubt.”
Mauricio Macri just exemplifies the mindset of a narrow sector of Argentine society, and his actions will probably become a matter of sociological investigation in years to come.
For non Latin American individuals is difficult to fathom such mindset, which has prevented the sub-continent to evolve as any form of socialism, but even the development of capitalism.
In Argentina, the oligarchy still dreams of going back to a Golden Age, prior to Peronism, when large landowners lived lavishly on commodities exports and “the country” was rich, while the majority of the population lived as paupers and servants.
You can see that in Macri's acts of government: Doing away with the export taxes for agro-export products (and mining products) while opening the doors wide to imports that killed much of the domestic productive sector.
On the other hand, Macri attempted to obliterate Peronism (and old dream of the oligarchy) and did so for the duration of his government -- just as the military who toppled Peron in 1955 -- with little success, of course.
Yes, the discussion still goes on in Argentina about whether Macri had a plan carefully executed or whether his government was woefully inept.
Some say it's a combination of the two.
DT
Jun 04th, 2019 - 07:52 pm - Link - Report abuse +1“They were objecting to Haddad before the election, hinting...”
C'mon, they were expressing their opinion, in the same way left-wing political parties were expressing their disdain for Bolsonaro, 'n spreading claims that a Bolsonaro victory could lead to bloodshed....but that was ok.... ....and “hinting they might take action if Haddad was elected”, is pure misinformation, by the press...Let me explain : before the elections, sometime in September, while giving a lecture, someone asked Mourão, “what could 'hypothetically' happen if after the elections, the situation deteriorated into total chaos, or if public order was threatened with anarchy ?”...his reply (to the question, which he later admitted during an interview with Merval Pereira - TV Globo - took him by surprise because he doubted such a scenario could exist), was that in this 'hypothetical' case, it would be the Army's duty to step in and maintain law & order....repeat, maintain law & order. The press of course claimed he was advocating for another military coup. The fact is that the PT refused to take responsibility for the crisis, Haddad had said he would do everything in his power (if elected) to free Lula (a Presidential pardon ?), things which simply made people very angry. As to the left regurgitating the 64 coup, your 'unbiased' press simply omits it.
“...for Presidents to try 'n rig the system in their favour, eg by appointing friendly judges, changing the constitution, and funnelling state funds to allies”...you just described Lula 'n the PT, except probably 'changing the Constitution', as not as easy here, as in VZ.
Since we are “speculating” about Argentina, there are a lot of possible scenarios, but you can't get away from the fact that the current siuation cannot be disassociated from CFK, as it's the accumulation of events over time, 'n one event leading to another, closing some doors, opening up others - not as good - that result in a big mess. No one single event is responsible, alone.
JB
Jun 05th, 2019 - 04:33 am - Link - Report abuse -1”before the (Brazilian) elections...someone asked Mourão, “'what could 'hypothetically' happen if after the elections...the public order was threatened with anarchy ?'...his reply...was that in this 'hypothetical' case, it would be the Army's duty to step in and maintain law & order....repeat, maintain law & order.“
Jack: ”maintain law & order“ was the default argument used to endorse most Latin American coup d'etats and the subsequent illegal persecution, kidnappings, jailing, torturing and murdering of opponents that the military unleashed. Talk about ”maintain law & order.”
The real reason for launching coups was always to get rid of a government going astray of the US-designed destiny for Latin America (never again another Cuba) to weaken or eliminate political parties, opposition groups and other “nuisances” that could not be efficiently obliterated by constitutional governments.
Just as a sample of the real stuff facilitated by coups: ”Within two years (of the 1964 coup) in accord with concessions promised to the U.S. government for its financial support of the overthrow, foreign companies gained control of about half of the Brazilian industry.
“This type of foreign intrusion was often accomplished through combined fiscal and monetary measures, ”constructive bankruptcy“ that caused the choice of selling out or going broke. By 1971, of the 19 of Brazil's 27 largest companies that were not state-owned, 14 were foreign-owned.”
@Think
Jun 05th, 2019 - 02:34 pm - Link - Report abuse +1So that's why you didn't object to her fiddling the inflation data. And what about the poverty stats, was that also a way of swindling investors, or just to make people think poverty was not so bad?
@EM
”You can see that in Macri's acts of government: Doing away with the export taxes for agro-export products (and mining products) while opening the doors wide to imports that killed much of the domestic productive sector.“
AFAIK Uruguay doesn't have agri-export taxes, and their import tariffs were a lot lower than Argentina's, despite having a leftist gvmt. Not everything has a sinister motive.
Jack, did Brazil have export taxes on eg beef or soya during Lula's presidency? Did he increase tariffs on imports, from China or the US?
@JB
Left-wing parties never held a coup in Brazil, and they don't have an army to back them up. Besides Mourão, I was thinking of the things General Villas Boas said, which could be interpreted as a threat if the supreme court didn't jail Lula.
Re Haddad freeing Lula:
https://en.mercopress.com/2018/09/19/haddad-pledges-no-pardon-for-imprisoned-lula-da-silva-if-he-is-elected-president
”you just described Lula 'n the PT“
If they intended to appoint friendly judges, they obviously did a crap job, since the STF refused to grant Lula's HC and put him in jail. Temer managed to change the constitution to limit spending for the next 20 years, didn't he? So it can't be impossible. The pension reform will also require a constitutional amendment, AIUI...
”you can't get away from the fact that the current siuation cannot be disassociated from CFK”
True. But she didn't inherit a blank slate, either. Argentina has suffered economic problems for decades, and following the advice of the IMF and other experts led to the biggest disaster yet. Small wonder people are willing to try unconventional ideas.
Mr. DemonTree...
Jun 05th, 2019 - 03:32 pm - Link - Report abuse -2You say...:
***“ So that's why you didn't object to her fiddling the inflation data. And what about the poverty stats, was that also a way of swindling investors, or just to make people think poverty was not so bad?”***
I say...:
Again, again and again, I say to you, lazy boy...:
Inform yourself before commenting or asking turnipy questions...
- I am on record..., several times in here responding to some deserving & honestly asking Anglos..., about the real inflation during the Kirchner last administration..., going so far as demonstrating real inflation through my food bills and diverse expenses of those years...
An easy enough exercise that “curiously enough” was very close to the UCA's results..., which were the parameters any sensible person down here used at the time..., INCLUDING the ones in charge of regulating wages..., pensions and all other social expenses increases...
About “Measurement of Poverty”...
How does one “ Measure Poverty”..., huh..?
With indexes and percentages..., that's how...
I Think I recall having had this discussion with you before..., and you being too lazy to check my info about the UK fiddling with the commonly agreed EU poverty measurement indexes and percentages to make it appear as if there are less poor in Britain as there really are...
In the case of the Kirchner administration in Argentina..., the whole misery comes from Mme. Cristina Elisabet de Kirchner declaring in a FAO Conference that Argentina had less poor people (about 5%) than Germany...!
Only problem here was that she used the FAO poverty measurement indexes and percentages (at the time ~1.75 U$D per day) to calculate the Argie poor..., but the EU poverty measurement indexes and percentages (quite higher than the FAO's..., I reckon) to calculatd the German poor...
Not t her smartest move.
And one than has been used against her ever since.
Even by some young lazy Engrishman that luuuves to skip homework.
Capisce...?
@Think
Jun 05th, 2019 - 06:19 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Remember I joined this site about the time Macri became president. Since then you've spent your time criticising him and defending CFK... and your comment above sure sounded like you approved of what she was doing. If you say you don't, then okay, I believe you.
Yesterday I did try to find alternative inflation figures, to confirm what you said and see how big the difference was, but one site had nothing available for free, and another had given up publishing them in early 2018, to concentrate on Venezuela. Closest thing I could find was this article, which estimates inflation at an alarming 100% per year, but doesn't show the raw figures:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2019/03/16/argentinas-peso-nothing-but-trouble/#4e91e6122a9a
I knew about the UCA poverty measure, but couldn't find one for inflation when I looked just now.
As for the UK poverty measure, are you really complaining like a boludo because I believed you without checking the info?
I suppose when you were a kid, you did all your homework on time like a good little boy, and never got detention?
Good you answered...
Jun 05th, 2019 - 07:07 pm - Link - Report abuse -1It allows me to correct som involuntary misinformation I gave above...
(Seven years of “War Journalism” as Clarin itself defines it..., have obviously affected my mushy auld brain...)
Mme. Cristina Elisabet de Kirchner did declare in a FAO Conference that Argentina had about 5% poor people (using the FAO Poverty Index..., of course)...But she didn't mentioned Germany...!
One of her functionaries (Anibal Fernandez) did that later..., saying that 5% poor people was less than what Germany had...
The same Anibal Fernandez that lost the election as governor of the province of Buenos Aires (and costed Mme. KIRCHNER more than the 2% vote that decided the presidential election) because he was accused by all the opposition press..., in a as fierce as false War Journalism Campaign..., of killing three people and being the Kingpin of a Drug Cartel...
A false accusation duly investigated and completely rejected by three court instances AFTER the lost election..., of course...
Wrong use of the boludo word..., kiddo...
- And no..., I am complaining because you DID NOT check my info aducing some silly excuse and chose not to believe it just because.............., you are lazy...
In me time...to give you detention..., they had to catch you first...
@EM
Jun 05th, 2019 - 07:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Jack: ”maintain law & order“ was the default argument used to endorse most LatAm coup d'etats 'n subsequent illegal persecution”.
While that's true in many cases, in 64 it was not about law & order, but to prevent a takeover attempt by Brazilian communists...which, by any standard, was the less harmful than the alternative. The few who engaged the military in armed resistance got screwed, 'n even then, in number, were insignificant if compared to Argentina / Chile.
But I'm of the opinion that the military, while speaking their mind, has absolutely no intention of embarking on another adventure....unless the situation became comparable to that in current-day VZ.
Your statement “By 1971, of the 19 of Brazil's 27 largest companies that were not state-owned, 14 were foreign-owned”, is confusing...do you mean that by 1971, out of Brazil's 27 largest companies, 19 of which were privately-owned (i.e.,“not State-owned”), 14 were multinationals ? If that's it, what was the problem ? But let's see, big Federally state-owned Cos : Cia Vale do Rio Doce, Petrobras, BNDES, Eletrobras just to name a few, were state-monopolies. Bzl has always favored State monopolies, in detriment of free competition, so what good did they do for the average citizen that a private company couldn't do better ? besides, they were highly inefficient, 'n when they lost money (always), no sweat, the National Treasury bailed them out. And when PB was semi-privatized, it grew like never before. And the big multinationals were Cos that did not compete with Brazilian Cos, they brough what Brazil did not have, principally, the automotive industry.
@DT
Bzln exports were exempted fm some local taxes, but paid an export tax. The US classified Bzln exports under a preferential regime, which favored Brazil. Increase tariffs ? not that I can specifically recall.
“Left-wing parties never held a coup in Brazil” ..that's a fact, but they sure tried...
have run out of space..
@Think
Jun 05th, 2019 - 07:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That was stupid of him, for the reasons you gave, but it isn't killing three people. If it was investigated by the court it couldn't be entirely something dreamed up by the papers. Which judge was it?
The thing I heard about CFK was that she stopped publishing poverty statistics altogether, in order to hide the fact poverty was rising again.
“chose not to believe it”
Where did I say I didn't believe it? Show me.
“In me time...to give you detention..., they had to catch you first...”
Well then. This website isn't my job, and I don't live in the southern cone. I'll do as much or as little research as interests me and I have time for, and if that doesn't meet your exacting standards then tough.
Let me put it Engrish terms to you ..., lad...
Jun 05th, 2019 - 08:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The oposition press criminal accusations against Mr. Anibal Fernandez were 350 million times falser than Boris Johnson's infamous referendum claim that the UK sent £350m a week to Brussels...
https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_crimen_de_General_Rodr%C3%ADguez
Capisce...?
DT
Jun 05th, 2019 - 08:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0”I was thinking of the things Gen Villas Boas said…” Ok, VB was a bit more straightforward, but the context in which he said what he did - which obviously only the lefties would object to, 'n decide to equate it to a threat - was one in which the Institutions (3 branches of govt) seemed to be losing control : Temer, a lame duck, Congress doing what it wanted, over 100 appeals from Lula to the STF, with the risk that it might resort to a political decision to free him – which the STF had no moral right to do (only the two lower courts can discuss the merits of the evidence and convict/release) - civil unrest with the MST down in Curitiba, threatening chaos…for exceptional times, exceptional measures….anyway, as you say, “saying is not doing”….keep to the facts, which are : nothing happened.
Re Haddad/ Lula : yes,he did pledge no pardon…but only AFTER having said he would consider it, which was met with big disapproval from all sectors.
As to friendly judges (STF), the fact they didn’t grant his HC - just as well - is because they had no justifiable basis to….Lula had appealed to the TRF-4, was turned down by 3 judges. He appealed to the STJ, was turned down by 5 judges…there would have to have been some blatant error in legal procedure for the STF to grant his HCs. There wasn’t.
As to the cap on spending, passed during Temer’s admin, sure, he proposed it, but it was Congress that approved it…’n the cap on the budget wasn’t fixed, or stationary…it could be increased, by inflation. If revenue increased, it could be altered again, in the same way, so what’s the problem ? But what’s your point, to allow unlimited, irresponsible spending ?
Anyway, when I replied re “constitutional changes”, I was referring to alterations to favour the president himself, or Congress, which was NOT the case (as did happen in VZ, with Maduro).
”But she didn't inherit a blank slate, either”….no she didn’t, but in her 2nd term, she inherited her husband’s ‘n her own 1st term.
@Think
Jun 05th, 2019 - 11:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The Wikipedia article doesn't have much about Anibal Fernandez (is Fernandez the Argentine version of Smith or something?) and it doesn't go up to the present. So what's the latest on the case?
“Where did I say I didn't believe it? Show me.”
Couldn't find it anywhere? You could apologise, or at least admit you were wrong...
@JB
Once you've carried out a coup (it was twice, in fact), people are inclined to take your threats more seriously. Which is a good reason to keep your mouth shut, unless you want to be accused of improperly influencing politics. And given the general got his way without further action, we don't know what the army might have resorted to. I think another coup was unlikely, but who knows. Some people were in favour.
“only AFTER having said he would consider it, which was met with big disapproval from all sectors.”
Is there an article on this? I want to know what he actually said and when.
“the fact they didn’t grant his HC - just as well - is because they had no justifiable basis to”
The decision was very close, 6-5, so 5 of the judges had no problem finding a basis to grant it. Just think, if Dilma had loaded the court with loyal judges, Lula could be a free man now. Possibly even president. Do you think she was foolish not to?
“what’s your point, to allow unlimited, irresponsible spending ?”
Do you really expect me to say yes to that? My point was that changing the constitution is not impossible, and though Temer's policy was not meant to benefit him personally, FHC did manage to get it changed to allow himself a second term. As for the cap itself, I think it's inappropriate to try and tie the hands of future governments in this way, not knowing how circumstances may change. It's another example of not trusting the people who come after you.
Re export taxes and import tariffs, how did they compare to Argentina under CFK? I'm trying to see if CFK's or Macri's regime was more normal for LatAm.
I heard something yesterday that might explain the real reason for the Fernández-Fernández partnership.
Jun 06th, 2019 - 05:08 pm - Link - Report abuse +1If CFK runs for president and loses, she will lose her immunity from prosecution as a senator. However, if she runs for VP and Fernández-Fernández lose the election, she can remain a senator and keep immunity. If so, it is all about avoiding the risk of being punished for her crimes and shows that she is not 100% confident of winning.
Can anyone confirm if this analysis makes sense?
DT
Jun 06th, 2019 - 10:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0”Once you've carried out a coup (twice, in fact)“. ”twice”...presume you're referring to Vargas, 1930/37...that's being a bit precious isn't it ?
Anyway, only the left (PT etc) saw it as a threat ...'n the press, as usual, blew it out of proportion, as if it were the end of the world...no one I knew was concerned.
“And given the genl got his way w/o further action”...so you actually believe the STF was ''really“ influenced by VBs comments ? IF they had been, 5 out of 11 wouldn't have voted in favor of Lula's HC...the message was ”follow the Law“, not your personal convictions...that was very clear.
”I think another coup was unlikely, but who knows“...ok, who knows ? no one could, but the probability of another was less than 0,1 %. If you want to believe the military exceeded their role as protectors of the nation, I'd say they just wanted to ensure the STF would not ignore the law, 'n decide politically.
A few weeks b4 the 1st round, Haddad did mention he might consider a pardon, if elected. As a result the press insisted he be clear, 'n whenever questioned he wiggled out of answering, absolutely refusing to say yes or no, but it was easy to see he did not discard the possibility ; this carried on until a journalist cornered him 'n insisted he reply directly, yes or no...grudgingly, he said he wouldn't. If he never had any intention to do so, why not say so ?
See below:
https://g1.globo.com/.../haddad-diz-que-nao-dara-indulto-a-lula-se-for-eleito-presidente....
”The decision was very close, 6-5, so 5 of the judges had no problem finding a basis to grant it (HC)”
8 STF judges were appointed by Lula (3) / Dilma (5). They were appointed with the expectation of being favored, however, not all complied...at times, some decisions sound rellay political.
“...expect me to say yes...” Not really. FHC's 2nd term was well seen as Brazil was improving.
Considering the moment, the 'cap' was not inappropriate, 'n can be overturned at anytime...if Congress wants to.
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