MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

China's hog herd drops to half because of the African swine fever

China's total consumption of animal feed such as soy will drop by 17per cent in 2019 due to the decline in hogs, according to Rabobank

China's hog herd fell by half in the first eight months of 2019 due to a devastating outbreak of African swine fever and will likely shrink by 55% by the end of the year, analysts at Rabobank said on Wednesday.

The pace of herd losses will likely slow in the coming months due to reduced farm numbers and Chinese government measures to control the pig disease in the world's largest pork consumer, according to a report by Rabobank. However, the bank said relatively unstable market conditions will likely persist for the next three to five years.

Though not harmful to humans, African swine fever is deadly to hogs, with no vaccine available. It surfaced for the first time in Asia more than a year ago, in China, and has now spread to over 50 countries, according to the World Organization of Animal Health - including those that account for 75per cent of global pork production.

Rabobank said in the report it expects China's pork production to fall by 10per cent to 15per cent in 2020, on top of a 25per cent drop in 2019.

China's total consumption of animal feed such as soy will drop by 17per cent in 2019 due to the decline in hogs, according to Rabobank. But feed consumption will rebound by 8per cent in 2020 as hog herds are rebuilt and farmers produce other proteins like chicken, the bank said.

In Vietnam, the world's sixth-largest pork producer, 25per cent of the country's total pig herd could be lost to African swine fever by year's end, according to Rabobank. Since February, 18per cent of pigs have died, the bank said.