MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

With the help of anti Brexit parties, Johnson manages a snap election on 12 December

When he first moved into Downing Street as prime minister, Boris Johnson was adamant that he did not want an election

The UK is heading for an election on Dec 12, following a series of votes in the House of Commons. The campaign for a pre-Christmas poll will formally begin within days. This followed hours of intense discussions and attempted amendments, and a failed effort by the opposition Labour Party to bring the vote forward to Dec 9.

When he first moved into Downing Street as prime minister, Boris Johnson was adamant that he did not want an election. But more recently he has effectively been daring the opposition parties to allow him to have one.

This U-turn comes as a result of his inability to secure a majority for his Brexit plans and a desire to repopulate parliament with MPs who would vote for his deal by the new deadline of Jan 31, 2020. He hopes that a “get Brexit done” platform can deliver him the majority he needs.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn had been calling for a general election when Johnson first became prime minister. But he soon shifted position, blocking a vote until the government guaranteed that it wouldn’t take the UK out of the EU without a deal.

Corbyn now says that this condition has effectively been met, at least for the time being, because the EU has granted a Brexit extension.

However, the threat of a no deal has merely been delayed, not removed. A no-deal scenario is still very possible come February 2020 or indeed if Johnson’s Brexit deal is passed but no new trading arrangements are agreed before the end of a transition period.
It is hard to ignore the fact that political expediency – as well as Brexit concern – has been a key motivator in Labor's delay tactics. Polls suggest that Corbyn’s party might not fare all that well in this election and it is not necessarily in its interests for one to happen now.

However, there is a sense that Corbyn has run out of excuses. Despite being very unsuccessful in the legislature, Johnson and his team have been very good at controlling the narrative. Their criticisms of Labour have resonated, leaving Labour with little room to manoeuvre.

The opposition has thus decided to risk an election, perhaps hoping for a repeat of its late surge in the 2017 election. There is also a chance that the increased pressures that winter puts on public services can play into Labor's hands as it challenges a governing party that has enacted severe cuts to public spending since 2010.

It was, in the end, a manoeuvre by the firmly anti-Brexit smaller parties – the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP) – that secured this election. Both had been hesitant about voting in favor of a poll until a no-deal scenario is well and truly off the table.

The logic of this is that an election could return a parliament that would be more amenable to their preferred Brexit outcomes and perhaps even facilitate a second referendum.

Experts warn that British politics remains deeply volatile more than three years after the referendum vote, and say the election result could be unpredictable.

There was significant voter switching between the 2015 and 2017 elections.

Election specialist John Curtice from the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow said Johnson is in a strong position to get a majority -- but an election remains a gamble.

“Boris has to win. A hung parliament and Boris is out,” he said, warning that a Labour-led coalition would likely take over.