Brazil should collect more than 300 million tons of grain by the 2024/25 harvest, three seasons earlier than initially planned, according to new projections by the Ministry of Agriculture. The previous forecast was to reach the target in the 2027/28 cycle.
Following on the projections Brazilian grain production should grow 27.1% until 2030/31 when it reaches 333.1 million tons. In the season ended this June, the country harvested 262.1 million tons, according to estimates from CONAB, the national food supply company.
Regarding the production of chicken, beef, and pork, the Ministry of Agriculture now foresees an increase of 24%. The survey also shows the expected evolution in the fruit, cotton, and sugarcane sector.
The production of meat (beef, pork, and poultry) between 2020/21 and 2030/31 is expected to increase by 6.6 million tons, representing an increase of 24.1%. Chicken and pork should show the greatest growth in the coming years: chicken meat (27.7%) and pork (25.8%).
Beef production should grow 17% between the base year and the end of the projections. “These percentages may be at higher levels, given the increased demand for animal protein,” points out José Garcia, general coordinator of policy assessment and information at the ministry and one of the researchers in the projections.
In meat, there will be strong pressure from the international market, especially for beef and pork, although Brazil will continue to lead the international chicken market. Of the expected increase in chicken meat production, 71.4% of the 2030/31 production will be destined for the domestic market; of the beef produced, 64.0% should go to the domestic market, and 73.8% of pork. Thus, although Brazil is, in general, a great exporter of these products, domestic consumption will remain very significant.
The most dynamic products of Brazilian agribusiness should be cotton, soy, corn, pork, beef, chicken, and fruit, especially mangos. “The domestic market and international demand will be the main growth factors for most of these products, which have the greatest potential for production growth in the next ten years,” says research coordinator García.
Despite the problems that arose with the pandemic, the Brazilian agricultural sector did well in 2020/21, with record harvests and prices. In addition, the gross production value (VBP) is expected to exceed the R$1 trillion mark (some US$ 200 billion) which means the agribusiness GDP will expand 3.5%,