Chilean political analyst Manuel Rodríguez Uribe estimates that the presidential runoff will be a different election to last Sunday's, under a different context but in a much more polarized environment, with conservative candidate Jose Antonio Kast holding better political support than his left-wing contender Gabriel Boric, currently a member of congress' Lower House in the representation of the extreme south region of Magallanes.
The election showed the extreme polarization in the Chilean political scenario, the electoral abstention and the traditional center coalitions lack of ability to lure the electorate and with most conservatives preferring to support law and order candidate Jose Antonio Kast, pointed out Rodriguez Uribe.
Anyhow the overall picture is far more complicated for the runoff since if we consider the center right candidates and liberals, such as Sebastian Sichel and Franco Parisi, they can help Kast collect a starting point of 40%.
In other words we can say that the electoral floor for the Kast candidacy to advance in the runoff is more significant than that of Gabriel Boric, to which he can add votes obtained by Marco Enriquez-Ominami, and probably half of Christian Democrat hopeful Ms Yasna Provoste. Numbers don't seem to favor Boric or that he can have a clear win next December 19.
However Rodriguez Uribe underlined that the coming second round is another election, quite different, in another context and with much more polarization.
In effect, the Chilean political center which has been predominant in Chile since General Pinochet stepped down, and was almost wiped out on Sunday, must make a decision. The Socialist party according to its chairman Alvaro Elizalde said the party would support Boric, no questions asked or demands about his government program. But the Christian Democrats have opted to hold an extraordinary assembly and the forecast is that the much diminished in numbers Christian Democrats, compared to when it shared and rotated in office with the Socialists, will vote divided; among those who would rather abstain, --they reject both candidates--, while the others will split among Kast and Boric, with Kast taking the upper hand, argued the analyst.
Thus although Boric had a strong support in metropolitan areas such as in Santiago and the extreme south, his turf, we can estimate under current conditions, that chances for Kast as next president are higher, concluded Rodriguez Uribe.