The commercial dollar traded Tuesday in Brazil at R $ 5.561, a 0.61% increase compared to the previous day after pressure from international markets played their part.
In fact, at around 11am Tuesday the US dollar traded at R $ 5.50, but eventually bounced back due to foreign operators playing on the local market, for a total drop of 0.28% in the first days of 2022. At the end of last week, the accumulated decline reached 1.09%.
Despite some signs or mercuriality, the foreign exchange market in Brazil is expected not to act up and the dollar is expected to trade at R $ 5.60 at the end of the year, according to local analysts.
Meanwhile, the stock exchange resisted falls at international markets and closed slightly higher. After fluctuating between highs and lows throughout the session, the Ibovespa index, closed at 106,668 points, up 0.28%. The indicator was boosted by mining companies, whose shares rose because of the increase in the international price of iron ore. Foreign investors also stepped in looking for stock which had been rendered unexpensive over the past few weeks.
The increase in US Treasury yields, considered the safest investments in the world, once again put pressure on the dollar across the planet. This is because higher rates on US bonds encourage the flight of resources from emerging countries, such as Brazil.
A protest by federal civil servants, who promoted a day's strike in Brasilia has led the market to fear that the government will give in to pressure and increase public spending in an election year.
Market analysts in Brazil slightly raised their inflation estimate for this year, which went from 5.03% to 5.09%. It would be half of the rise registered last year, which would be partly the consequence of an increase in the interest rate that would rise from 9.25% per year to 11.75% in the coming months.
But in terms of activity, forecasts are not very encouraging because the GDP would grow only 0.29% this year, which would mark a decline after the expansion achieved in 2021. Brazil's Central Bank Tuesday released an economic activity index that showed a rise of 0.69% in November in relation to October.
On the international front, positive numbers are expected with a trade surplus of US$56 billion, lower than in 2021 because it will feel the impact of lower prices for commodities of which Brazil is a relevant exporter.
Forecasts for Brazil's economy herald very little dynamism this year, which is not good for Mercosur exports to the region's largest economy.